at the request of @surfside, i am posting my modeling for q2 2017. this is a pretty crude model based on 12,025 s deliveries and 10,025 x deliveries. i am not expecting any meaningful positive surprises unless they sell a big chunk of zev credits (more than i modeled). looking forward to everyone's input, but as i don't see big upside edge not sure i will play eps meaningfully this time around. as last quarter i'll try to take sensible discussion and model appropriately - the model is not meant to imply that i know anything special.
[TD2]
luv q2-17
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Mar-17
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Dec-16
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Sep-16
[/TD2] [TD2] 0.26 [/TD2][TD2] 0.26 [/TD2][TD2] 0.25 [/TD2][TD2] 0.32 [/TD2] [TD2] 109.10 [/TD2][TD2] 108.06 [/TD2][TD2] 103.28 [/TD2][TD2] 105.40 [/TD2] [TD2]1,780,185[/TD2][TD2]2,000,060[/TD2][TD2]1,719,609[/TD2][TD2]1,778,901[/TD2] [TD2]227,534[/TD2][TD2]254,540[/TD2][TD2]254,674[/TD2][TD2]231,285[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]49,010[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]19,840[/TD2][TD2]138,541[/TD2] [TD2] 2,076,728 [/TD2][TD2] 2,289,600 [/TD2][TD2] 1,994,123 [/TD2][TD2] 2,148,727 [/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]5,244[/TD2][TD2]47,285[/TD2][TD2]23,334[/TD2] [TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]208,700[/TD2][TD2]84,100[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]22,400[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]182,318[/TD2][TD2]170,326[/TD2][TD2]159,123[/TD2][TD2]126,375[/TD2] [TD2] 2,521,046 [/TD2][TD2] 2,696,270 [/TD2][TD2] 2,284,631 [/TD2][TD2] 2,298,436 [/TD2] [TD2]1,395,002[/TD2][TD2]1,496,649[/TD2][TD2]1,372,604[/TD2][TD2]1,355,102[/TD2] [TD2]150,120[/TD2][TD2]166,026[/TD2][TD2]171,818[/TD2][TD2]161,959[/TD2] [TD2] 1,545,122 [/TD2][TD2] 1,662,675 [/TD2][TD2] 1,544,422 [/TD2][TD2] 1,517,061 [/TD2] [TD2]47,250[/TD2][TD2]6,473[/TD2][TD2]60,779[/TD2][TD2]24,281[/TD2] [TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]145,300[/TD2][TD2]67,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]16,150[/TD2][TD2]14,900[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]187,787[/TD2][TD2]198,976[/TD2][TD2]177,152[/TD2][TD2]120,359[/TD2] [TD2] 1,936,309 [/TD2][TD2] 2,028,324 [/TD2][TD2] 1,849,353 [/TD2][TD2] 1,661,701 [/TD2] [TD2] 584,737 [/TD2][TD2] 667,946 [/TD2][TD2] 435,278 [/TD2][TD2] 636,735 [/TD2] [TD2]25.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.4%[/TD2][TD2]22.6%[/TD2][TD2]29.4%[/TD2] [TD2]23.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.3%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]24.5%[/TD2] [TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.4%[/TD2][TD2]-28.5%[/TD2][TD2]-4.1%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.4%[/TD2][TD2]20.3%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2] [TD2]5.0%[/TD2][TD2]33.5%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-3.0%[/TD2][TD2]-16.8%[/TD2][TD2]-11.3%[/TD2][TD2]4.8%[/TD2] [TD2]250,000[/TD2][TD2]239,070[/TD2][TD2]234,960[/TD2][TD2]214,302[/TD2] [TD2]470,000[/TD2][TD2]446,637[/TD2][TD2]365,909[/TD2][TD2]336,811[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]67,000[/TD2][TD2]15,807[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]44,800[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]127,988[/TD2][TD2]74,300[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 895,000 [/TD2][TD2] 925,495 [/TD2][TD2] 701,976 [/TD2][TD2] 551,113 [/TD2] [TD2] -310,263 [/TD2][TD2] -257,549 [/TD2][TD2] -266,698 [/TD2][TD2] 85,622 [/TD2] [TD2]3,000[/TD2][TD2]3,090[/TD2][TD2]2,179[/TD2][TD2]2,858[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-46,146[/TD2][TD2]-43,104[/TD2][TD2]-46,713[/TD2] [TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,200[/TD2][TD2]-22,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-18,098[/TD2][TD2]32,524[/TD2][TD2]-11,756[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]88,700[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -422,263 [/TD2][TD2] -371,903 [/TD2][TD2] -208,399 [/TD2][TD2] 30,011 [/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]25,278[/TD2][TD2]11,070[/TD2][TD2]8,133[/TD2] [TD2] -434,263 [/TD2][TD2] -397,181 [/TD2][TD2] -219,469 [/TD2][TD2] 21,878 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-66,904[/TD2][TD2]-98,132[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -384,263 [/TD2][TD2] -330,277 [/TD2][TD2] -121,337 [/TD2][TD2] 21,878 [/TD2] [TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]162,129[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2][TD2]148,991[/TD2] [TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]162,129[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2][TD2]156,935[/TD2] [TD2] -2.36 [/TD2][TD2] -2.04 [/TD2][TD2] -0.78 [/TD2][TD2] 0.14 [/TD2]
… |
ls veh % total |
avg price |
revenue |
auto sales |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
cost of revenue |
auto |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
gross profit |
auto gaap gm |
auto-zev gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1time acq cost |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
op income |
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
basic shares |
diluted shares |
diluted eps |
[/TD2] [TD2] 0.26 [/TD2][TD2] 0.26 [/TD2][TD2] 0.25 [/TD2][TD2] 0.32 [/TD2] [TD2] 109.10 [/TD2][TD2] 108.06 [/TD2][TD2] 103.28 [/TD2][TD2] 105.40 [/TD2] [TD2]1,780,185[/TD2][TD2]2,000,060[/TD2][TD2]1,719,609[/TD2][TD2]1,778,901[/TD2] [TD2]227,534[/TD2][TD2]254,540[/TD2][TD2]254,674[/TD2][TD2]231,285[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]49,010[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]19,840[/TD2][TD2]138,541[/TD2] [TD2] 2,076,728 [/TD2][TD2] 2,289,600 [/TD2][TD2] 1,994,123 [/TD2][TD2] 2,148,727 [/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]5,244[/TD2][TD2]47,285[/TD2][TD2]23,334[/TD2] [TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]208,700[/TD2][TD2]84,100[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]22,400[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]182,318[/TD2][TD2]170,326[/TD2][TD2]159,123[/TD2][TD2]126,375[/TD2] [TD2] 2,521,046 [/TD2][TD2] 2,696,270 [/TD2][TD2] 2,284,631 [/TD2][TD2] 2,298,436 [/TD2] [TD2]1,395,002[/TD2][TD2]1,496,649[/TD2][TD2]1,372,604[/TD2][TD2]1,355,102[/TD2] [TD2]150,120[/TD2][TD2]166,026[/TD2][TD2]171,818[/TD2][TD2]161,959[/TD2] [TD2] 1,545,122 [/TD2][TD2] 1,662,675 [/TD2][TD2] 1,544,422 [/TD2][TD2] 1,517,061 [/TD2] [TD2]47,250[/TD2][TD2]6,473[/TD2][TD2]60,779[/TD2][TD2]24,281[/TD2] [TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]145,300[/TD2][TD2]67,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]16,150[/TD2][TD2]14,900[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]187,787[/TD2][TD2]198,976[/TD2][TD2]177,152[/TD2][TD2]120,359[/TD2] [TD2] 1,936,309 [/TD2][TD2] 2,028,324 [/TD2][TD2] 1,849,353 [/TD2][TD2] 1,661,701 [/TD2] [TD2] 584,737 [/TD2][TD2] 667,946 [/TD2][TD2] 435,278 [/TD2][TD2] 636,735 [/TD2] [TD2]25.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.4%[/TD2][TD2]22.6%[/TD2][TD2]29.4%[/TD2] [TD2]23.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.3%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]24.5%[/TD2] [TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.4%[/TD2][TD2]-28.5%[/TD2][TD2]-4.1%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.4%[/TD2][TD2]20.3%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2] [TD2]5.0%[/TD2][TD2]33.5%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-3.0%[/TD2][TD2]-16.8%[/TD2][TD2]-11.3%[/TD2][TD2]4.8%[/TD2] [TD2]250,000[/TD2][TD2]239,070[/TD2][TD2]234,960[/TD2][TD2]214,302[/TD2] [TD2]470,000[/TD2][TD2]446,637[/TD2][TD2]365,909[/TD2][TD2]336,811[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]67,000[/TD2][TD2]15,807[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]44,800[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]127,988[/TD2][TD2]74,300[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 895,000 [/TD2][TD2] 925,495 [/TD2][TD2] 701,976 [/TD2][TD2] 551,113 [/TD2] [TD2] -310,263 [/TD2][TD2] -257,549 [/TD2][TD2] -266,698 [/TD2][TD2] 85,622 [/TD2] [TD2]3,000[/TD2][TD2]3,090[/TD2][TD2]2,179[/TD2][TD2]2,858[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-46,146[/TD2][TD2]-43,104[/TD2][TD2]-46,713[/TD2] [TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,200[/TD2][TD2]-22,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-18,098[/TD2][TD2]32,524[/TD2][TD2]-11,756[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]88,700[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -422,263 [/TD2][TD2] -371,903 [/TD2][TD2] -208,399 [/TD2][TD2] 30,011 [/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]25,278[/TD2][TD2]11,070[/TD2][TD2]8,133[/TD2] [TD2] -434,263 [/TD2][TD2] -397,181 [/TD2][TD2] -219,469 [/TD2][TD2] 21,878 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-66,904[/TD2][TD2]-98,132[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -384,263 [/TD2][TD2] -330,277 [/TD2][TD2] -121,337 [/TD2][TD2] 21,878 [/TD2] [TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]162,129[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2][TD2]148,991[/TD2] [TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]162,129[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2][TD2]156,935[/TD2] [TD2] -2.36 [/TD2][TD2] -2.04 [/TD2][TD2] -0.78 [/TD2][TD2] 0.14 [/TD2]