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Q2 2018 Earnings Results

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Jul 18, 2018.

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Q2 2018 GAAP EPS

Poll closed Aug 1, 2018.
  1. Positive

    6 vote(s)
    12.5%
  2. ($0.50)

    2 vote(s)
    4.2%
  3. ($1.00)

    5 vote(s)
    10.4%
  4. ($1.50)

    4 vote(s)
    8.3%
  5. ($2.00)

    3 vote(s)
    6.3%
  6. ($2.50)

    3 vote(s)
    6.3%
  7. ($3.00)

    5 vote(s)
    10.4%
  8. ($3.50)

    4 vote(s)
    8.3%
  9. ($4.00)

    6 vote(s)
    12.5%
  10. ($4.50)

    2 vote(s)
    4.2%
  11. ($5.00)

    1 vote(s)
    2.1%
  12. Run for the hills

    7 vote(s)
    14.6%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    PALO ALTO, Calif., July 18, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2018 after market close on Wednesday, August 1, 2018. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2018 Update Letter, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

    What is your estimate for Tesla's financial results for the second quarter of 2018?

    Please feel free to discuss how you reached your estimate in a comment below.
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    sheer random psychic guess
     
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  3. defc0n

    defc0n Member

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    3 votes so far <= (2.50). Anyone care to explain how you believe it could be that “good” ?
     
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  4. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Three letters.
     
  5. Ellec

    Ellec Member

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    I think the quarter will be a big surprise, with the Model 3 deliveries adding to the Model S/X and Energy, I see under -1 or even positive.
     
    • Funny x 1
  6. vigleik

    vigleik Member

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    Just a quick note: VA is asking about the GAAP result, which is not the “headline number” and is typically much worse than the non-GAAP result. Q1 was ($4.19) GAAP, ($3.35) non-GAAP.

    I voted ($4.00), because I think Q2 is going to be similar to Q1. Margin on the model 3 is still terrible, and there are some one time items. Also,Tesla will move any expenses they can to Q2, and not sell any ZEV credits, to try to set the stage for a profit in Q3.

    I also think Tesla will straddle the divide in Q3, posting a small GAAP loss but a non-GAAP profit. But it will be good enough. Q4 will have a GAAP EPS of about $1. Someone should remind me how wrong I turned out to be in about 6 months. (Or two weeks.)
     
    • Like x 4
  7. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Active Member

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    I'm guessing any profit from increased 3 sales will be wiped out by further infrastructure spending, but I'm hopeful they managed to get SG&A down a smidge.
     
  8. generalenthu

    generalenthu Member

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    Infrastructure spending it's not expensed immediately. It's depreciated.
     
  9. generalenthu

    generalenthu Member

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    Not sure which universe these people voting a positive net income come from. Sorry.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Funny x 1
    • Love x 1
  10. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    we are time travelers from the very near future, well, some of us :);)
     
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  11. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Active Member

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    Can the total cost of infrastructurei installation be depreciated, or just the materials?
     
  12. generalenthu

    generalenthu Member

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    Yes, typically all expeses right till commissioning are capitalized, and I've heard this can include equipment loan interest till it's operational.

    Fair warning: not an accountant.
     
    • Informative x 1
  13. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    I believe OP meant operating expenses (specifically, SG&A), which are expensed; rather than CapEx, which is capitalized/depreciated.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. Drax7

    Drax7 Active Member

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    ValueAnalyst, where can I see your spreadsheet, you’ve done lots of good work in that area.
     
    • Love x 1
  15. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    Umm, you made post #1 in this thread. That makes you the OP.
     
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  16. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Thanks! Here are my detailed projections by quarter by product: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

    My model is less detailed than many for the immediate quarter and more forward looking - i.e. through 2025.
     
  17. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    How much in ZEV credits do you expect Tesla to recognize in Q2?
     
  18. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Sorry! I meant @omgwtfbyobbq
     
    • Like x 1
  19. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Active Member

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    Exactly! Here's something from Tesla's Q3 10K last year that states they recoreded $25.8 million in compensation for Grohmann under SG&A, and I'm not sure what parts of Grohmann's/Perbix's operations would go under infrastructure and what parts would go under SG&A. If enough goes under SG&A, that might drop substantially as Tesla gets the Model 3 lines sorted.

     
  20. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    This is a good question, and I do not know the answer with certainty. What I suspect, however, is that Grohmann/Perbix headcount expenses are mostly in R&D. $25.8m was a one-time comp expense for Grohmann’s previous owner.
     
    • Informative x 1

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