Q2 Delivery/production Predictions

[NannerAirCraft]

Hey all I didn't see a thread for people to predict Q2 deliveries and production so I thought I would make one.
So far according to comments made by Elon and leaked sources it's gonna be pretty close on if Tesla can manage to surpass their record from Q4 which was 90,966. I'm hoping Model S&X can recover from their Q1 slump and for Model 3 to demonstrate increased production from Q1.

Personally I am predicting a total of 91,000 deliveries of which I think 74,000 will be Model 3. Then 8,000 and 9000 for Model S and X respectively. Production will probably be about the same I'm guessing.

The poll will close in 5 days. I put ranges that I think are reasonable for all the possibilities and would be incredibly surprised if the final number was outside the poll answers. Curious to see what the most popular answer will be.
I'll also include my estimate for earnings based on my 91k delivery estimate in the attached screenshot.

 

[EVNow]

You are missing the crucial option - 87k to 90k.

BTW, seems to me X will outsell S by a big margin.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

You are missing the crucial option - 87k to 90k.

BTW, seems to me X will outsell S by a big margin.

Whoops sorry about that also just saw I missed 82.5-85. And it does seem like over time the Model X is pulling past the S in sales with the increased demand for SUV's.

 

[Antares Nebula]

@NannerAirCraft

It's too fine grain. I think you should just do 5k increments.

 

[EVNow]

@NannerAirCraft

It's too fine grain. I think you should just do 5k increments.

Given various Tesla statements the estimates are likely to bunch up around 90k. So, I think the grain is ok.

 

[DracarysShort]

NA number from electrek is contradicting to me..
1. Tesla sales reach new high, offering bonuses to deliver this month - leaked info - Electrek

 

[DracarysShort]

NA number from electrek is contradicting to me..
1. Tesla sales reach new high, offering bonuses to deliver this month - leaked info - Electrek

from June 5: quoted here that in the first 2 months of Q2, delivery is 33,000 in NA.
2. Tesla orders surge for record quarter, but deliveries are the bottleneck - Electrek
from Jun 25: quoted here that 22,000 delivered in June

Combining those 2 articles, Q2 delivery number in NA should be around 55,000, but from the same article from Jun 25, it stated at the end that 'Tesla delivered over 49,000 vehicles in North America during the second quarter'. 6000 is a margin too big to neglect at this moment for TSLA and this could proven to be crucial to delivery number..

 

[Doggydogworld]

from June 5: quoted here that in the first 2 months of Q2, delivery is 33,000 in NA.
2. Tesla orders surge for record quarter, but deliveries are the bottleneck - Electrek
from Jun 25: quoted here that 22,000 delivered in June

Combining those 2 articles, Q2 delivery number in NA should be around 55,000, but from the same article from Jun 25, it stated at the end that 'Tesla delivered over 49,000 vehicles in North America during the second quarter'. 6000 is a margin too big to neglect at this moment for TSLA and this could proven to be crucial to delivery number..

The 33k was as of June 5 and included 2.5k delivered the first 4-5 days of June. The numbers still don't match, but the margin is closer. I said elsewhere I suspect they actually delivered ~19k this quarter but adjusted the bonus formula to show 22k so sales & delivery people wouldn't decide the 33k/36k goals were out of reach and quit trying.

 

[EVNow]

The 33k was as of June 5 and included 2.5k delivered the first 4-5 days of June. The numbers still don't match, but the margin is closer. I said elsewhere I suspect they actually delivered ~19k this quarter but adjusted the bonus formula to show 22k so sales & delivery people wouldn't decide the 33k/36k goals were out of reach and quit trying.

I think the most likely interpretation is that Electrek numbers are not reliable.

I also wonder where they are getting the numbers. High level numbers would be known only by higher level managers and they are unlikely to leak. So, the leaks have to be coming from someone lower level reports person or Tesla has poor controls and a lot of people have access to those reports.

There is also the possibility of some of those numbers being US only instead of NA.

 

[DracarysShort]

The 33k was as of June 5 and included 2.5k delivered the first 4-5 days of June. The numbers still don't match, but the margin is closer. I said elsewhere I suspect they actually delivered ~19k this quarter but adjusted the bonus formula to show 22k so sales & delivery people wouldn't decide the 33k/36k goals were out of reach and quit trying.

Yea I thought about that as well but still the margin is around 3500..

Anyway, with all the data on hand, my prediction for Q2:
NA: 49k as of Jun 25 and 6k for the rest of June = 55k in Q2
EU: 8.5k for April and May, expecting 15-17k for June = 25k in Q2
CN: data on hand shows about 5k for M3 in Apr and May, expecting 1k for MS & MX in Q2 and 5k alone in June = 11k in Q2.

Total number = 91k, but of that only 55k in NA can be regarded as "DELIVERED" with certainty, as other data are marked either "Sales" or "VIN registered" so the actual delivery numbers are likely to be lower.

Also, don't know if Tesla will include the 10k in-transit vehicles that were supposed to be delivered in Q1 but delayed into the delivery number in Q2 (they most likely will). If they do, 90k delivered in Q2 globally shouldn't be hard.