Q2 ER Modeling / Predictions

[SBenson]

Q2 financials are particularly important for many of us. More so than any of the previous quarters (arguably).

I am wondering if anyone has modeled the financials yet.

The key question I have is: what is the (non-gaap) revenue threshold that Tesla needs to cross to ensure a Positive (non-gaap) EPS?

I am thinking it should be ~$2B

When I say non-gaap I mean with both
- lease accounting reversal and
- excluding stock based comp

For EPS that would be the line item labelled -- "Net income (loss) per share, diluted (Non-GAAP)" listed in page-9 in Q4 shareholder letter with (0.87) reported for Q4.

For Revenue that would be -- "Revenues (Non-GAAP)" listed in page-10 in the Q4 shareholder letter with $1,747,024 reported for Q4.

I believe these are the metrics that the media follow. Please correct me if I'm off on this.

 

[austinEV]

Just checking you did not mean to write about the Q1 ER next week.

 

[SBenson]

No Q1 is foregone.

We are all clamoring to see a mega short squeeze, early 2013 of-sorts, replayed in Aug with Q2 ER.

I am trying to understand what revenue is needed, then back that into how many Xs are needed (assuming some amount of Ss) and then track progress against it.

So the first step is figuring out what revenue threshold should we be looking for, for a positive non-gaap EPS.

 

[Fallenone]

I think it might be too early to model/predict the revenue required for positive EPS and/or FCF. Two big unknowns here:
1. What's the state of TE business now and how would it be in Q2?
We know it started in Q4 2015. But has it grown a lot in Q1 2016 and what's the outlook for Q2 especially for Powerpack? If yes, given the huge margin on Powerpack, it can heavily influence EPS.

2. What would opex and capex look like?
It seems to me they are pretty tight on these two items in Q1. But given the huge reservation numbers for the Model 3, will they increase opex/capex a lot in Q2? Elon Musk said they plan to double SC and greatly increase stores all over the world by the end of this year. How much of the associated costs are going to be allocated to Q2? I remember they guided about 2B in capex for the entire 2016 in their last ER. Will this change (I think it definitely will, just not sure how much for Q2).

So I think it's better to do this after Q1 ER CC.