Q2 MX Delivery Estimates

[jsollender]

Investor documents reflect expectation of 20K cars to be made (or delivered, not sure which term is more accurate) in Q2, though they only made 12,800 MS in Q1 and 2600 MX in Q1. So is MS production increasing or only MX production from paltry 2600 cars to 7200 in Q2? Can't anticipate a 3X increase in MX production if the factory floor has been shut down to improve quality and while looking for fresh administrators with VP "vacation." So how many MX deliveries will occur before the end of June flurry? I estimate about 500 cars a week max through the quarter or about 6000 MX's. Any takers? I see someone posted a VIN in the 8000 range with anticipated June delivery, so I think my numbers are about right. The winner gets a free sunshade in Q4 2016!

 

[techmaven]

The major bottlenecks that cannot be altered include the stamping and body in white assembly. The issues we've seen so far all seem to stem from components and assembly done at the final assembly line. Therefore, as long as they are still pumping out vehicle bodies, they have a lot of room to catch up.

 

[Oloron]

I skimmed their Quarterly report. They expect to produce 20k vehicles and deliver 17k in Q2 -- with the $3k difference being cars in transit between the factory and the customer at quarter end, mainly driven by shipments to Europe and Asia.

Given those numbers and prior quarters, I'd guess they're budgeting on something like 13k S and 4k X. Though I suspect they are hoping they can do a little better than that to exceed expectations going into Q3, especially since that will likely coincide with their now planned effort to raise more capital.

I'd guess maybe 14k/5k for the S/X split in the end.

 

[ankitmishra]

My guess for Q2 delivery numbers is 5000 (Model X).

 

[goneskiian]

What @Oloron said. Produced and delivered are separate numbers due to vehicles in transit.

Considering they've only just last week finally produced 1 flawless model X through the production line I would guess on the low side for X's at 3000 to 3500.

 

[Odysseus]

I'm with @goneskiian. My MX 43xx is still tracking for "late April - May" but hasn't started production yet. I think this makes May delivery unlikely, based on past performance (although I can "hope May" I can't "think May."). Add the QA issues, add the VP gaps, add the evidence of Elon in a sleeping bag at Final Assembly and Test - it adds up to June. I am okay with this because frankly I will take June delivery of a flawless reliable MX any day over May delivery of a buggy one.

If 43xx is mid June, then total MX for quarter delivered is 3000 to 3500 tops.

 

[trmmcd]

Elon also said that they had some 100% flawless cars come off the line for the first time. I'm not a manufacturing expert but that sounds like a key milestone. Presumably they always have to tweak at least a few things - but not on those cars. Assuming parts are available they should be able to ramp up big time.

 

[dapao]

My guess for Q2 delivery numbers is 5000 (Model X).

I remembered Elon said they are gonna ship 2000 vehicles per week. 5000 sounds solid. Maybe more and high quality

 

[goneskiian]

I remembered Elon said they are gonna ship 2000 vehicles per week. 5000 sounds solid. Maybe more and high quality

He said "produce" 2000 a week. There's a difference between produce and deliver.

That 2000 also includes S's. Only 40% will be X's, and some of those will be in transit to Europe as well.

 

[dapao]

He said "produce" 2000 a week. There's a difference between produce and deliver.

That 2000 also includes S's. Only 40% will be X's, and some of those will be in transit to Europe as well.

what is your status now? I got my VIN 800X yesterday

 

[WABarb]

He said "produce" 2000 a week. There's a difference between produce and deliver.

That 2000 also includes S's. Only 40% will be X's, and some of those will be in transit to Europe as well.

I agree - Most folks are missing the part about X shipments to Europe - so we should not get too excited about any number because they are not all destined for US based customers. If you look at the Europe X thread you will see many customers getting June/July delivery dates (in addition to those in the US getting same dates). My concern is those of us who ordered last year how our orders will be affected.

 

[goneskiian]

what is your status now? I got my VIN 800X yesterday

No change from what's in my signature.

 

[mrdoubleb]

My guess for Q2 delivery numbers is 5000 (Model X).

agreed, 4500-5000 sounds reasonable depending on how much is in route to Europe vs delivered.

With that I am pretty confident they will beat 17k deliveries altogether. Not necessarily by much, but 12k S is not a problem at all...

 

[jsollender]

From the ranges posted above, guessers were in the 3000-6000 range, but with 2 days left in Q2, I am now upping my ante from 6000 to 7000 this quarter based on current VINs being delivered. Anyone else wish to up the ante beyond 7000 MX deliveries this quarter?

 

[dapao]

From the ranges posted above, guessers were in the 3000-6000 range, but with 2 days left in Q2, I am now upping my ante from 6000 to 7000 this quarter based on current VINs being delivered. Anyone else wish to up the ante beyond 7000 MX deliveries this quarter?

my 800x was delivered on last week.

 

[XHokie]

Model X June Deliveries

I just posted this to the June Deliveries thread...someone there with an 84xx VIN is taking delivery on Thursday. This seems to indicate that the 8xxx VINs are starting to get delivered, mostly all out Production by now. Anyone know if any 9xxx VINs are scheduled for delivery yet? If not, then they are probably getting close, which means my 118xx VIN is probably a couple of weeks away from entering Production...July delivery may not be as far fetched as I thought. Probably getting my hopes up...

 

[vandacca]

I think it's a very bad idea to associate VIN number with delivery numbers. For example, I'm vin 26XX and I'm just getting delivery this week. The VINs are not being delivered in order and there are huge gaps in the ones that are delivered. So if they're now delivering VIN 8XXX now, all you can deduce is that they have delivered less than 8,000 X.

 

[jsollender]

Right @vandacca, plus don't forget to subtract the 2500 or so from first quarter, but higher vins are also seeing the light of day. for instance, I am told to expect delivery of my 11100 in "early to mid-July". So, they have delivered less than 5500 cars in Q2 if the vin 8000 got delivered, but if they are also delivering vins close to 10000 this week, same methodology applies.

 

[TFgalactus]

My vin is 70XX and no delivery date yet.

 

[UnitaryExecutive]

My vin is 70XX and no delivery date yet.

5500-6500 seems reasonable given a lot manufactured in Q1 didn't get delivered due to QC issues and gaps in VINd. Also, a lot of EU and China ordered got expedited.

I'm thinking 22000 manufactured and 18000 delivered.