Q2 MX Delivery Estimates

[UnitaryExecutive]

Revenue for Q2 is going to be huge with X ramp, signatures going international, credits, and my guess is we see a fairly material contribution from Tesla energy - 20-30M.

 

[jsollender]

Hope to see a nice price bump when the Q2 report comes out in August.

 

[vigge50]

About 4625 Model X and 9745 Model S was delivered in q2 according to tesla. On the other hand, 5150 cars was in transit to customers.

Tesla (TSLA) missed on deliveries in Q2 with 14,370 vehicles and production of 18,345 vehicles

 

[jsollender]

With 1/3 model X and 2/3 model S, the 5100 cars in transit would be about 1700 X's. Add that to the 4625 delivered X's and you have 6125 "completed" X's for the quarter. Add the 2600 or so 2015 and Q1 deliveries and you get to 8700 or so total deliveries/completed cars which still is 1000-2000 vehicles less than the highest VIN we see delivered. Where are all those missing vehicles? Dealer demos, scrapped cars from build flaws? I know VINs are not assigned in order but still makes you wonder about the high VIN count we see posted by deliveries.

 

[jsollender]

And @mrdoubleb wins the sunshade with his estimate between 4500-5000 as the closest estimate.

 

[GVTesla]

With 1/3 model X and 2/3 model S, the 5100 cars in transit would be about 1700 X's. Add that to the 4625 delivered X's and you have 6125 "completed" X's for the quarter. Add the 2600 or so 2015 and Q1 deliveries and you get to 8700 or so total deliveries/completed cars which still is 1000-2000 vehicles less than the highest VIN we see delivered. Where are all those missing vehicles? Dealer demos, scrapped cars from build flaws? I know VINs are not assigned in order but still makes you wonder about the high VIN count we see posted by deliveries.

My best guess is that this is a result of the batching that is going on right now. This would explain several lower VIN's not having been produced yet while higher VIN's are being delivered. Although I can totally understand and accept this, as a customer, I also hope that they won't overdo this to the extent that this batching would delay my 2014 reservation & subsequent order to an unacceptable amount of time. It probably is quite the balancing act, over at production planning. Keeping the early believers satisfied and meanwhile ramping up production as much as reasonably possible.

 

[mrdoubleb]

And @mrdoubleb wins the sunshade with his estimate between 4500-5000 as the closest estimate.

yay! Now I need a Model X that goes with it... Oh Crap. Any ideas how much a lightly used 37yo kidney is worth?

 

[vandacca]

With 1/3 model X and 2/3 model S, the 5100 cars in transit would be about 1700 X's. Add that to the 4625 delivered X's and you have 6125 "completed" X's for the quarter. Add the 2600 or so 2015 and Q1 deliveries and you get to 8700 or so total deliveries/completed cars which still is 1000-2000 vehicles less than the highest VIN we see delivered. Where are all those missing vehicles? Dealer demos, scrapped cars from build flaws? I know VINs are not assigned in order but still makes you wonder about the high VIN count we see posted by deliveries.

Tesla does not build in VIN order. They started doing it almost right from the start of Model-X deliveries (not sure if they did the same with the S). It's my guess that they did this to prevent people (investors) from predicting their ramp up prior to them releasing numbers. As soon as they started doing this, ModelXTracker.com was born to help reservations holders figure out when they could get their vehicles.

For example, I'm VIN 26XX and I just picked up last week. I assume that a lot of those missing VINs are scheduled for EU delivery. You might as well give up on using VIN to track delivery numbers.

 

[jsollender]

Totally stopped looking at the tracker once my VIN was assigned, and @mrdoubleb your kidney is worth a helluva lot more than my 53 year old liver, though I could give up a lobe of my liver knowing it regenerates, while one less kidney is just that. How divergent we are from the topic though!