Near-future quarterly financial projections

[luvb2b]

here's the update with the corrections to debt maturities and s/x. thanks for the input to @neroden and @mershaw2001.

so the updated modeling is hugely helpful as it shows that tesla could report cash balances of near $2 billion the rest of the way through 2018. i am kicking myself for getting this wrong b/c it would have affected how i levered my positions near the $300 mark.

to elon's statement of cash flow positive in q3, the number i have modeled is within a margin of error of being positive.

any model like this should be taken as a guide only and should be expected to have errors. if i could be within +/-$150 million of the bottom line cash figures i would be thrilled.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q2-18e [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]12,200[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,800[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,000 [/TD2][TD2] 23,000 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 65,000 [/TD2][TD2] 54,000 [/TD2][TD2] 25,000 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.76 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 60.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2] [TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,169,820[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2] [TD2]3,770,000[/TD2][TD2]3,240,000[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2] [TD2]187,499[/TD2][TD2]181,557[/TD2][TD2]175,888[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,699,019 [/TD2][TD2] 6,068,737 [/TD2][TD2] 3,745,708 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,399,019 [/TD2][TD2] 6,823,737 [/TD2][TD2] 4,460,208 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,973,475[/TD2][TD2]1,903,069[/TD2][TD2]1,623,256[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2] [TD2]3,072,550[/TD2][TD2]2,689,200[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2] [TD2]120,000[/TD2][TD2]116,197[/TD2][TD2]112,568[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 5,166,024 [/TD2][TD2] 4,708,465 [/TD2][TD2] 3,135,824 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,886,023 [/TD2][TD2] 5,484,964 [/TD2][TD2] 3,886,024 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,512,996 [/TD2][TD2] 1,338,773 [/TD2][TD2] 574,184 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2] [TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2] [TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2] [TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]16.3%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]315,000[/TD2][TD2]309,060[/TD2][TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]510,000[/TD2][TD2]499,950[/TD2][TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 999,000 [/TD2][TD2] 977,175 [/TD2][TD2] 1,160,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 513,996 [/TD2][TD2] 361,598 [/TD2][TD2] -585,816 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 347,996 [/TD2][TD2] 195,598 [/TD2][TD2] -751,816 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 327,997 [/TD2][TD2] 175,599 [/TD2][TD2] -771,816 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 377,998 [/TD2][TD2] 225,600 [/TD2][TD2] -721,816 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 2.07 [/TD2][TD2] 1.24 [/TD2][TD2] -4.25 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]377,998[/TD2][TD2]225,600[/TD2][TD2]-721,816[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]510,998[/TD2][TD2]358,600[/TD2][TD2]-556,816[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.79 [/TD2][TD2] 1.97 [/TD2][TD2] -3.28 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]2,045,867[/TD2][TD2]1,844,728[/TD2][TD2]1,915,516[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,216,277[/TD2][TD2]1,121,710[/TD2][TD2]821,167[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,644,314[/TD2][TD2]4,808,736[/TD2][TD2]3,534,685[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]312,293[/TD2][TD2]305,001[/TD2][TD2]366,089[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,368,752 [/TD2][TD2] 8,210,175 [/TD2][TD2] 6,737,457 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,527,493[/TD2][TD2]2,447,866[/TD2][TD2]2,369,098[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,225,831 [/TD2][TD2] 30,273,554 [/TD2][TD2] 28,098,518 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,966,836[/TD2][TD2]4,868,845[/TD2][TD2]3,598,565[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]1,998,000[/TD2][TD2]1,905,491[/TD2][TD2]1,913,500[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]606,598[/TD2][TD2]587,488[/TD2][TD2]544,892[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,736,434 [/TD2][TD2] 10,526,824 [/TD2][TD2] 9,521,957 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]884,622[/TD2][TD2]856,753[/TD2][TD2]829,184[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]2,747,250[/TD2][TD2]2,638,373[/TD2][TD2]2,633,750[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,020,926 [/TD2][TD2] 23,894,569 [/TD2][TD2] 22,687,510 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,901,962 [/TD2][TD2] 5,076,042 [/TD2][TD2] 4,108,065 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]327,997[/TD2][TD2]175,599[/TD2][TD2]-771,816[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]48,087[/TD2][TD2]35,347[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-94,567[/TD2][TD2]-300,543[/TD2][TD2]-168,319[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]84,795[/TD2][TD2]-1,352,819[/TD2][TD2]-1,022,832[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]140,500[/TD2][TD2]1,212,272[/TD2][TD2]960,136[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,289,195 [/TD2][TD2] 513,980 [/TD2][TD2] -249,539 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -960,000 [/TD2][TD2] -860,000 [/TD2][TD2] -770,000 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 201,139 [/TD2][TD2] -70,788 [/TD2][TD2] -750,157 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,844,728 [/TD2][TD2] 1,915,516 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,045,867 [/TD2][TD2] 1,844,728 [/TD2][TD2] 1,915,516 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

 

[Reality]

@luvb2b


I know this will come off as bearish or FUD as this kids say, but I dont mean it to.


Could you add a "Net Working Capital" and "Net Change in Working Capital" line at the bottom?

GIven the change of cash can be manipulated by supplier terms (both favorably and unfavorably), im thinking a net WC position month of month is really a better measure of how well you are modeling our cash flows.


Thoughts?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@luvb2b

I know this will come off as bearish or FUD as this kids say, but I dont mean it to.

Could you add a "Net Working Capital" and "Net Change in Working Capital" line at the bottom?

GIven the change of cash can be manipulated by supplier terms (both favorably and unfavorably), im thinking a net WC position month of month is really a better measure of how well you are modeling our cash flows.

Thoughts?

As always, you are once again moving the goal post. Working capital will undoubtedly be negative, simply due to the negative cash conversion cycle nature of Model 3 production ramp, as I explained to you many times, but you continue to choose to ignore. This is not really surprising as your purpose is clearly to mislead others. You will soon get squeezed.

For the benefit of others: "Negative cash conversion cycle" means Model 3 production ramp alone will be enough to fund Tesla's future capital needs. Tesla will generate ample cash just by growing its Model 3 production rate, as it will collect cash from customers within days, but will not pay its suppliers for 90 days. This is how Walmart became Walmart, how Amazon became Amazon, and how many other growth companies internally funded their exponential growth.

 

[luvb2b]

you may have noticed i don't worry too much about what is perceived as bullish or bearish, but more with what "is".
the facts are the facts, and trying to avoid bearish or bullish ones is equally counterproductive in my view.

to the working capital question: this is something you can do and easily post, a simple subtraction of current assets - current liabilities.
across the above you see the persistence of negative net working capital across all 4 quarters and the negative amount stays stable.

i would be hesitant to rely too much on this though as my general principle is try to get the big things right and let many other things slide. so for example, i tried to make sure i captured the behavior of payables, inventory, and receivables as sales grew to get the balance sheet impact. but some of the other line items may have substantially less insight into them. meaning, i would have some confidence in the general trends laid out in the model in a broad sense, but perhaps low confidence on any individual piece pulled out from it - such as current assets/liabilities.

also as you go forward in the model the magnitude of errors will generally magnify, so tracking odd line items going forward through the model is probably not a highly reliable exercise. but you are welcome to do it.

@luvb2b


I know this will come off as bearish or FUD as this kids say, but I dont mean it to.


Could you add a "Net Working Capital" and "Net Change in Working Capital" line at the bottom?

GIven the change of cash can be manipulated by supplier terms (both favorably and unfavorably), im thinking a net WC position month of month is really a better measure of how well you are modeling our cash flows.


Thoughts?

 

[Waiting4M3]

here's the update with the corrections to debt maturities and s/x. thanks for the input to @neroden and @mershaw2001.

so the updated modeling is hugely helpful as it shows that tesla could report cash balances of near $2 billion the rest of the way through 2018. i am kicking myself for getting this wrong b/c it would have affected how i levered my positions near the $300 mark.

to elon's statement of cash flow positive in q3, the number i have modeled is within a margin of error of being positive.

any model like this should be taken as a guide only and should be expected to have errors. if i could be within +/-$150 million of the bottom line cash figures i would be thrilled.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q2-18e [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]12,200[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,800[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,000 [/TD2][TD2] 23,000 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 65,000 [/TD2][TD2] 54,000 [/TD2][TD2] 25,000 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.76 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 60.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2] [TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,169,820[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2] [TD2]3,770,000[/TD2][TD2]3,240,000[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2] [TD2]187,499[/TD2][TD2]181,557[/TD2][TD2]175,888[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,699,019 [/TD2][TD2] 6,068,737 [/TD2][TD2] 3,745,708 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,399,019 [/TD2][TD2] 6,823,737 [/TD2][TD2] 4,460,208 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,973,475[/TD2][TD2]1,903,069[/TD2][TD2]1,623,256[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2] [TD2]3,072,550[/TD2][TD2]2,689,200[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2] [TD2]120,000[/TD2][TD2]116,197[/TD2][TD2]112,568[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 5,166,024 [/TD2][TD2] 4,708,465 [/TD2][TD2] 3,135,824 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,886,023 [/TD2][TD2] 5,484,964 [/TD2][TD2] 3,886,024 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,512,996 [/TD2][TD2] 1,338,773 [/TD2][TD2] 574,184 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2] [TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2] [TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2] [TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]16.3%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]315,000[/TD2][TD2]309,060[/TD2][TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]510,000[/TD2][TD2]499,950[/TD2][TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 999,000 [/TD2][TD2] 977,175 [/TD2][TD2] 1,160,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 513,996 [/TD2][TD2] 361,598 [/TD2][TD2] -585,816 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 347,996 [/TD2][TD2] 195,598 [/TD2][TD2] -751,816 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 327,997 [/TD2][TD2] 175,599 [/TD2][TD2] -771,816 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 377,998 [/TD2][TD2] 225,600 [/TD2][TD2] -721,816 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 2.07 [/TD2][TD2] 1.24 [/TD2][TD2] -4.25 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]377,998[/TD2][TD2]225,600[/TD2][TD2]-721,816[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]510,998[/TD2][TD2]358,600[/TD2][TD2]-556,816[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.79 [/TD2][TD2] 1.97 [/TD2][TD2] -3.28 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]2,045,867[/TD2][TD2]1,844,728[/TD2][TD2]1,915,516[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,216,277[/TD2][TD2]1,121,710[/TD2][TD2]821,167[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,644,314[/TD2][TD2]4,808,736[/TD2][TD2]3,534,685[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]312,293[/TD2][TD2]305,001[/TD2][TD2]366,089[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,368,752 [/TD2][TD2] 8,210,175 [/TD2][TD2] 6,737,457 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,527,493[/TD2][TD2]2,447,866[/TD2][TD2]2,369,098[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,225,831 [/TD2][TD2] 30,273,554 [/TD2][TD2] 28,098,518 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,966,836[/TD2][TD2]4,868,845[/TD2][TD2]3,598,565[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]1,998,000[/TD2][TD2]1,905,491[/TD2][TD2]1,913,500[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]606,598[/TD2][TD2]587,488[/TD2][TD2]544,892[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,736,434 [/TD2][TD2] 10,526,824 [/TD2][TD2] 9,521,957 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]884,622[/TD2][TD2]856,753[/TD2][TD2]829,184[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]2,747,250[/TD2][TD2]2,638,373[/TD2][TD2]2,633,750[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,020,926 [/TD2][TD2] 23,894,569 [/TD2][TD2] 22,687,510 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,901,962 [/TD2][TD2] 5,076,042 [/TD2][TD2] 4,108,065 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]327,997[/TD2][TD2]175,599[/TD2][TD2]-771,816[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]48,087[/TD2][TD2]35,347[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-94,567[/TD2][TD2]-300,543[/TD2][TD2]-168,319[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]84,795[/TD2][TD2]-1,352,819[/TD2][TD2]-1,022,832[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]140,500[/TD2][TD2]1,212,272[/TD2][TD2]960,136[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,289,195 [/TD2][TD2] 513,980 [/TD2][TD2] -249,539 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -960,000 [/TD2][TD2] -860,000 [/TD2][TD2] -770,000 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 201,139 [/TD2][TD2] -70,788 [/TD2][TD2] -750,157 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,844,728 [/TD2][TD2] 1,915,516 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,045,867 [/TD2][TD2] 1,844,728 [/TD2][TD2] 1,915,516 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

Thank you! This is one of the best threads on TMC.

Have you considered the large batch of invites that opened yesterday and the effect of people placing orders and paying the $2500 downpayment? On Reddit it looks like some people in the US who reserved as recent as this last May (1 month ago) got invited to configure, and everyone got quoted 3-5 months delivery time. It looks like Tesla is selling out this year's production in this batch. Some optimistic projection has this batch on the order of 100k people invited. Even if only 1/2 of those invited people configure, it could mean $125m in down payment, in Q2.

 

[luvb2b]

not an excuse, but guesswork around solarcity allocation increased dramatically as disclosures have vanished entirely the last 2 quarters.

i don't think solarcity has been gutted "that" much. but you make a valid point that solar mw deployed has dropped by 50% yoy as of 18q1. i think solarcity sg&a also absorbs some costs related to pre-production expenses at the buffalo gigafactory.

i will think about your comment but i have no good way to measure this. i basically took reliable estimates just after the merger and tried to make some adjustments for headcounts, etc. if you'd like to propose better numbers and reasoning i will consider. thanks.

Looks really high for Q3/Q4 then. Solarcity is completely gutted after the last round of layoffs. What remains is some peripheral selling done at stores and some minor r&d on solar roof. With solar revenue being less than 3% of overall revenue, I have a hard time seeing how you can allocate over 20% of SG&A to it and nearly 15% on R&D. I think you should either have overall SG&A/R&D fall or readjust between both items. It's a relevant discussion in light of 'how does SG&A scale/not scale with revenue' which is basically the difference between the bull or the bear accounting case.

 

[luvb2b]

i thought the impact would be ~25-50m, but i don't know. they have done some clever things to pull the cash out of customers' hands early. it will impact the cash balance positively but at this time i was comfortable leaving it as a positive upside factor vs. trying to model it.

Thank you! This is one of the best threads on TMC.

Have you considered the large batch of invites that opened yesterday and the effect of people placing orders and paying the $2500 downpayment? On Reddit it looks like some people in the US who reserved as recent as this last May (1 month ago) got invited to configure, and everyone got quoted 3-5 months delivery time. It looks like Tesla is selling out this year's production in this batch. Some optimistic projection has this batch on the order of 100k people invited. Even if only 1/2 of those invited people configure, it could mean $125m in down payment, in Q2.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

i thought the impact would be ~25-50m, but i don't know. they have done some clever things to pull the cash out of customers' hands early. it will impact the cash balance positively but at this time i was comfortable leaving it as a positive upside factor vs. trying to model it.

Modeling this is not that hard. 455,000 reservations, mostly US since int'l deliveries were long slated to start in 2019, so say 65% including Canada.

Assume 50% for LR + LRD + P3D, basically everything but Standard, which I expect will have low take rate, so 50% can prove conservative.

455,000 x 65% x 50% = nearly 150,000 invites, and take half of that to be conservative on orders, so 70,000.

= 70,000 x $2,500 = $175m in cash inflow in the near-term along with $70m unlocking of restricted cash = $200m+ cash increase.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

here's the update with the corrections to debt maturities and s/x. thanks for the input to @neroden and @mershaw2001.

so the updated modeling is hugely helpful as it shows that tesla could report cash balances of near $2 billion the rest of the way through 2018. i am kicking myself for getting this wrong b/c it would have affected how i levered my positions near the $300 mark.

to elon's statement of cash flow positive in q3, the number i have modeled is within a margin of error of being positive.

any model like this should be taken as a guide only and should be expected to have errors. if i could be within +/-$150 million of the bottom line cash figures i would be thrilled.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q2-18e [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]12,200[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,800[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,000 [/TD2][TD2] 23,000 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 65,000 [/TD2][TD2] 54,000 [/TD2][TD2] 25,000 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.76 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 60.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2] [TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,169,820[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2] [TD2]3,770,000[/TD2][TD2]3,240,000[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2] [TD2]187,499[/TD2][TD2]181,557[/TD2][TD2]175,888[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,699,019 [/TD2][TD2] 6,068,737 [/TD2][TD2] 3,745,708 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,399,019 [/TD2][TD2] 6,823,737 [/TD2][TD2] 4,460,208 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,973,475[/TD2][TD2]1,903,069[/TD2][TD2]1,623,256[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2] [TD2]3,072,550[/TD2][TD2]2,689,200[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2] [TD2]120,000[/TD2][TD2]116,197[/TD2][TD2]112,568[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 5,166,024 [/TD2][TD2] 4,708,465 [/TD2][TD2] 3,135,824 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,886,023 [/TD2][TD2] 5,484,964 [/TD2][TD2] 3,886,024 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,512,996 [/TD2][TD2] 1,338,773 [/TD2][TD2] 574,184 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2] [TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2] [TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2] [TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]16.3%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]315,000[/TD2][TD2]309,060[/TD2][TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]510,000[/TD2][TD2]499,950[/TD2][TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 999,000 [/TD2][TD2] 977,175 [/TD2][TD2] 1,160,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 513,996 [/TD2][TD2] 361,598 [/TD2][TD2] -585,816 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 347,996 [/TD2][TD2] 195,598 [/TD2][TD2] -751,816 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 327,997 [/TD2][TD2] 175,599 [/TD2][TD2] -771,816 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 377,998 [/TD2][TD2] 225,600 [/TD2][TD2] -721,816 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 2.07 [/TD2][TD2] 1.24 [/TD2][TD2] -4.25 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]377,998[/TD2][TD2]225,600[/TD2][TD2]-721,816[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]510,998[/TD2][TD2]358,600[/TD2][TD2]-556,816[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.79 [/TD2][TD2] 1.97 [/TD2][TD2] -3.28 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]2,045,867[/TD2][TD2]1,844,728[/TD2][TD2]1,915,516[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,216,277[/TD2][TD2]1,121,710[/TD2][TD2]821,167[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,644,314[/TD2][TD2]4,808,736[/TD2][TD2]3,534,685[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]312,293[/TD2][TD2]305,001[/TD2][TD2]366,089[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,368,752 [/TD2][TD2] 8,210,175 [/TD2][TD2] 6,737,457 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,527,493[/TD2][TD2]2,447,866[/TD2][TD2]2,369,098[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,225,831 [/TD2][TD2] 30,273,554 [/TD2][TD2] 28,098,518 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,966,836[/TD2][TD2]4,868,845[/TD2][TD2]3,598,565[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]1,998,000[/TD2][TD2]1,905,491[/TD2][TD2]1,913,500[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]606,598[/TD2][TD2]587,488[/TD2][TD2]544,892[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,736,434 [/TD2][TD2] 10,526,824 [/TD2][TD2] 9,521,957 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]884,622[/TD2][TD2]856,753[/TD2][TD2]829,184[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]2,747,250[/TD2][TD2]2,638,373[/TD2][TD2]2,633,750[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,020,926 [/TD2][TD2] 23,894,569 [/TD2][TD2] 22,687,510 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,901,962 [/TD2][TD2] 5,076,042 [/TD2][TD2] 4,108,065 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]327,997[/TD2][TD2]175,599[/TD2][TD2]-771,816[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]48,087[/TD2][TD2]35,347[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-94,567[/TD2][TD2]-300,543[/TD2][TD2]-168,319[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]84,795[/TD2][TD2]-1,352,819[/TD2][TD2]-1,022,832[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]140,500[/TD2][TD2]1,212,272[/TD2][TD2]960,136[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,289,195 [/TD2][TD2] 513,980 [/TD2][TD2] -249,539 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -960,000 [/TD2][TD2] -860,000 [/TD2][TD2] -770,000 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 201,139 [/TD2][TD2] -70,788 [/TD2][TD2] -750,157 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,844,728 [/TD2][TD2] 1,915,516 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,045,867 [/TD2][TD2] 1,844,728 [/TD2][TD2] 1,915,516 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

Your OpEx assumptions may be too high for 2Q, which is when Elon personally took charge of expenses. OpEx should go down QoQ, not up.

 

[Reality]

As always, you are once again moving the goal post. Working capital will undoubtedly be negative, simply due to the negative cash conversion cycle nature of Model 3 production ramp, as I explained to you many times, but you continue to choose to ignore. This is not really surprising as your purpose is clearly to mislead others. You will soon get squeezed.

For the benefit of others: "Negative cash conversion cycle" means Model 3 production ramp alone will be enough to fund Tesla's future capital needs. Tesla will generate ample cash just by growing its Model 3 production rate, as it will collect cash from customers within days, but will not pay its suppliers for 90 days. This is how Walmart became Walmart, how Amazon became Amazon, and how many other growth companies internally funded their exponential growth.

Net change in WC was requested as well.

They are just data points, im not saying its an end all be all, but its a good data point to try and forecast because it cant be manipulated as much

 

[Reality]

you may have noticed i don't worry too much about what is perceived as bullish or bearish, but more with what "is".
the facts are the facts, and trying to avoid bearish or bullish ones is equally counterproductive in my view.

I know I can do it (???) but given your model is all linked up, was just curious how hard it was to add a few lines at the bottom as I think they are extremely important



Tesla can succeed even if they NEVER have positive working capital, but no company can last forever with an increasingly negative net change in WC (without external financing)

 

[neroden]

Elon has made many financial promises before that didn't come true, including repeated promises of cash flow positivity and profitability that ultimately didn't work out. There does not seem to be some rule or person stopping him from being financially overoptimistic.

There's a difference between saying "I think we'll X" or even "We plan to X" on the one hand (common) and "We will definitely X for sure" (unusual, happened this time).

 

[ggr]

I know I can do it (???) but given your model is all linked up, was just curious how hard it was to add a few lines at the bottom as I think they are extremely important



Tesla can succeed even if they NEVER have positive working capital, but no company can last forever with an increasingly negative net change in WC (without external financing)

So you're going to completely ignore that @luvb2b already answered your question?:

across the above you see the persistence of negative net working capital across all 4 quarters and the negative amount stays stable.

 

[Reality]

So you're going to completely ignore that @luvb2b already answered your question?:

i missed that

 

[Reality]

Modeling this is not that hard. 455,000 reservations, mostly US since int'l deliveries were long slated to start in 2019, so say 65% including Canada.

Assume 50% for LR + LRD + P3D, basically everything but Standard, which I expect will have low take rate, so 50% can prove conservative.

455,000 x 65% x 50% = nearly 150,000 invites, and take half of that to be conservative on orders, so 70,000.

= 70,000 x $2,500 = $175m in cash inflow in the near-term along with $70m unlocking of restricted cash = $200m+ cash increase.

lol @ you throwing shade at luvb2b

 

[ValueAnalyst]

lol @ you throwing shade at luvb2b

Stop trying to divide and conquer. I call ‘em as I see ‘em on either side of the isle. You will get squeezed.

 

[schonelucht]

In the interest of sharing, I though to post some screenshots of the model that I keep. I've included the the last two and upcoming three quarters. I've broken the screenshots down in revenue/costs and profit(loss) statement. I do not have a comprehensive cash estimation model as @luvb2b has, but she certainly inspired me so I will do it (someday). You'll see it's a good bit more conservative (attentive participants would expect this from me) but the conclusion is still the same. Q3 will see a very small profit (small enough that it still could go the other way) but Q4 will certainly be in the black.

 

[Reality]

you can reduce by the CIO salary now

 

[Rarity]

Hat tip to @luvb2b.

Tesla pulled in delivery date from 7/1 to 6/30

 

[luvb2b]

actually credit for that should goes to others who shared that info with another tmc member who shared with me.

but thanks anyway

Hat tip to @luvb2b.

Tesla pulled in delivery date from 7/1 to 6/30