Two strikes against you: (1) you believe Petersen in any way, and (2) you don't understand the difference between a '/' and a '\'.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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- elon is an ass
I do need to straighten out my mangled use I suppose simply to avoid confusing people although you are literally the first person who cares enough to point it out. Your Petersen comment is of course useless tribal tripe.
I dove pretty hard into the subject to refute his articles. I never saw a slam dunk disproof although his assumptions on things I couldn't validate were very pessimistic, mostly in the time to add supply. Also he warned right before a 300% increase in the spot price which I give a lot of points for. I'll review that thread. I think faith that Tesla can pull out cobalt is massively inappropriate as that would be an astounding leapfrog over the rest of the world. They so far have gotten it to approximately the nmc811 on the NCA chemistry.
This is a niggling worry. I'll also drop the subject now on this thread.
remember John Peterson's company
reverse splits
1:35, then 1:50, then 1: 400 for an actual 1:700,000, and still worth between 1-2 cents/share
nuff said
adiggs
Well-Known Member
We are talking about COGS savings at the cell level. These are mass purchased gigafactory cells... My very rough guess is that the MR is ~ 3K hit to the bottomline (assuming constant sales vs prior assumption).
Btw, White upgrade is now 1K vs earlier 1.5K and PAWD seems to be lowered 1K as well.
The other really interesting thing is how early these demand levers are pulled. We are not even three weeks into the quarter!
I vaguely expected first levers to be pulled mid to late nov. What's wrong with building the cars away, let them bake in dirt lots and push them hard towards end of quarter. This is done before.
To me personally it's unfathomable to expect 5K/wk of LR models within NA at steady state (with no long pending prior reservations). For one to believe that, you would also have to believe that Tesla can sell 10K/wk WW just with LR. And further believe that Tesla can sell north of 20 to 30K/wk WW including SR+LR. All this on 'present' basis. Sure yes M3 may grow into such a big success eventually as the vehicle evolves. But no way right at the get go... My rough guess would be maybe 1K to 2K of steady state sales for LR in NA. Perhaps closer to 1K... The hope was all along was that the reservation book lasts longer. But alas, that's not the case and for whatever reason car is not ready for other markets yet. It's ugly.
At this point I expect ever new levers pulled every few weeks.
Here is what happened:
Tesla website all along said the car has all the hardware needed to turn on FSD. Only pending items are software validation and regulatory approvals.
We all know that is bogus nonsense. When NVDA originally released the chips, there were two kinds. NVDA said a minimum of two of the higher end versions are needed for FSD. Tesla on the other hand used a custom board with in-between capabilities and claimed FSD ready!!
Musk kinda sorta hinted at needing a change to the computer. But he always hedged by saying something like 'in case' we need to change the chip, we will do so for free and it's easy to do so.
AFAIK, for the first time Musk said two days ago IN WRITING that the new chip is NEEDED for fsd. Game over - if that is the case, how is the language on the website correct? It said everything needed is already in the car! Only software validation and reg approval needed!
Caught!!
You know, this whole FSD thing is very similar to going private.
All that is needed was shareholder approval - huh?
All that is needed is software validation and reg approval??
Tesla doesn't have the damn computer. They are working on it!
But it is sold (to investors as well as consumers) as it already exists inside the car!!
Isn't this precisely what Theranos did??
Oh, one other small issue - what is Tesla's expertise in chip making anyway?? How many chips did they make so far? Now ofcourse they are all ready for a cancer-cure-level kind of chip which surely no other traditional chip makers can make... See anything odd in this?
(Personally, I feel quite embarrassed that I fell for all this stupid nonsense. One has to step out of the bubble to really see it. Having money in it doesn't help.)
@ThereAre4Cars
why do you disagree?
A simple statement of fact
Peterson's old company did a set of reverse split(s) equaling
--->>one<<-- share for every 700,000 shares
not someone to follow unless you really like throwing money away, and he touted a 3 wheel EV trike from a garage mechanic from Danville, Va that was reminiscent of the old BugEv kit you could build that was a "lead sled" (Pb battery)
There's not enough widgets to express varieties of disappointment. I was disagreeing with the inference that his support of that failed effort is 'nuff said' about his discussion of cobalt which is all that's actually relevant here. His cobalt investigation is actually quite strong. Maybe misguided ultimately, but this isn't the way to argue that.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
But it's also a reality of this particular audience. For those that have been active here long enough, we've had literally years of John Petersen doing his best to destroy his credibility (and Tesla) in a variety of ways (for the purpose of creating personal benefit for himself, as best as anybody could ever tell).
For me, he might have performed ground breaking and brilliant analysis into Cobalt. He's trashed his own reputation with me badly enough, I just assume that any topic he wishes to express an opinion on that he's got an angle and he's trying to sell a particular point of view that is beneficial to him, and may or may not mean anything useful to me.
If it was a topic I was really interested in, I'd go find somebody else doing analysis of the topic. He's already used up his 2nd, 3rd and 9th chances. He ran out of more chances awhile ago.
I get it. I don't have any burning desire to resuscitate his image and he's not a critical component of talking cobalt. This is all a multiple turn detour and I'm fine with dropping it and not diluting luv's thread further.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Is a change in chip necessary?
If so, is Tesla doing it for free?
If so, is it easy?
What's the problem? I'm not following fsd too closely because I personally don't think it's going to be legal for a couple years, nor should it.
If all the above is true....who cares? That's like worrying that your graphics card isn't good enough for VR in 2009. The thing you need this piece for doesn't even exist yet.
A change of computing platform is necessary. That is without doubt. Tesla is promising to do it for free. But I agree with @SBenson that it ain’t easy at all. We’ll see.
The biggest risk for investors wrt FSD right now is that regulatory bodies wake up and start assessing what Tesla knew about the actual state of the product during AP2 reveal. As I said, every day that passes without progress makes it harder to claim that Tesla’s representation was honest.
There are at least two AP executives fired over AP. I think it’s likely they both were canned because they told Elon ‘what you’re expecting is impossible’. If that’s the case and they are compelled to start talking then it’s going to turn very ugly for Tesla very quickly.
Anyway, I detailed this thread with off topic enough already. Let’s go back to talking numbers.
I believe this is a $300 hit per car. But since it was all deferred anyway, it shouldn’t show up on the gross margin side. It will reduce cash flow this quarter by $25M however.
The biggest risk for investors wrt FSD right now is that regulatory bodies wake up and start assessing what Tesla knew about the actual state of the product during AP2 reveal. As I said, every day that passes without progress makes it harder to claim that Tesla’s representation was honest.
There are at least two AP executives fired over AP. I think it’s likely they both were canned because they told Elon ‘what you’re expecting is impossible’. If that’s the case and they are compelled to start talking then it’s going to turn very ugly for Tesla very quickly.
Anyway, I detailed this thread with off topic enough already. Let’s go back to talking numbers.
I believe this is a $300 hit per car. But since it was all deferred anyway, it shouldn’t show up on the gross margin side. It will reduce cash flow this quarter by $25M however.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Catastrophic lithium shortages and missing FSD computers aside.....is there TMC consensus on profitability?
Are we getting the tiny net profit for 3Q or do I have to wait til 4Q earnings?
If delayed until 4Q TSLA is certain to be strongly profitable, correct?
Are we getting the tiny net profit for 3Q or do I have to wait til 4Q earnings?
If delayed until 4Q TSLA is certain to be strongly profitable, correct?
I suspect those "players" were astute enough to cover that contingency:
"VIEs are eliminated in the consolidated financial statements. Cash distributions of income and other receipts by a fund, net of agreed upon expenses, estimated expenses, tax benefits and detriments of income and loss and tax credits, are allocated to the fund investor and our subsidiary as specified in the agreement. ...
Moreover, we and our fund investors claim the ITC in amounts based on the fair market value of our solar and energy storage systems. Although we obtain independent appraisals to support the claimed fair market values, the relevant governmental authorities have audited such values and in certain cases have determined that they should be lower, and they may do so again in the future. Such determinations may result in adverse tax consequences and/or our obligation to make indemnification or other payments, or contribute additional assets, to our funds or fund investors."
Anyone who has ever been audited in any similar "tax-sheltered" schemes and had to repay interest and penalties realizes the game is to over value the basis on which tax credits and accelerated depreciation is applied. TSLA/SCTY got nailed with their hand in the cookie jar but the Rive cousins and most of SCTY's BoD laughed away with mucho dinero. "No brainer" for those on the inside.Moreover, we and our fund investors claim the ITC in amounts based on the fair market value of our solar and energy storage systems. Although we obtain independent appraisals to support the claimed fair market values, the relevant governmental authorities have audited such values and in certain cases have determined that they should be lower, and they may do so again in the future. Such determinations may result in adverse tax consequences and/or our obligation to make indemnification or other payments, or contribute additional assets, to our funds or fund investors."
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omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
It's not what Theranos did AFAIK. From what I've read, to this day Elizabeth Holmes has not acknowledged that Edison didn't work, whereas Tesla in your example is acknowledging that FSD isn't possible without an ASIC by removing it as a purchase option.
Exclusive: How Elizabeth Holmes’s House of Cards Came Tumbling Down
Yuri_G
Member
The comparisons to Theranos are especially hyperbolic and unhelpful since Tesla has a useable product that anyone can test for themselves. Maybe FSD doesn't happen for 10 years, but there have been thousands of videos documenting Autopilot's progress and anyone paying attention knows this progress has been impressive. It's the biggest AI puzzle ever and Tesla is at the forefront.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I remember talking to service personnel years ago and they told me that part of their training was done at Fremont factory to get to see cars put together. Makes sense to me. I doubt sending them some how promotes efficiency since they need trainingThe latest "ZOMG.. they are committing accounting fraud" FUD (source is Lora's relatively balanced article). How much is labour as a percentage of cost? Will it really make that much of a difference to gross margin?
