Near-future quarterly financial projections

[oneday]

From a market watch article this morning. FactSet seems to be what news agencies are using as analyst consensus estimates. This may change between now and tomorrow.

“Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 3 cents a share on sales of $6.01 billion. That would compare with an adjusted loss of $2.92 a share on sales of $2.99 billion in the year-ago period.”

 

[adiggs]

Interesting that even the analysts, who I expect to be badly wrong, have a consensus expectation of ~100% year over year growth in revenue. That is a LOT of growth for a really big company. Keep that up (which I see no way for Tesla to avoid doing so), and its not hard to imagine more big names shifting from short to long (buy the growth).

 

[luvb2b]

@luvb2b

Did you have any FSD revenue hitting in this model?

no fsd revenue yet

 

[Johan]

I have to say luv, great job on this prognosis, it may have looked optimistic to some but it was either right on point or slightly conservative some places.

 

[brian45011]

CARB's ZEV Credit Report for 9/1/17 through 8/31/18:

https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevpr...s.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

Tesla sold 88,214 credits and ended the period with 74,712.17 credits in inventory (up from 29,556 at 8/31/17)

Tesla reported in the most recent 4 quarters for ZEV income ($MM):
4Q17: 179
1Q18: 50
2Q18: 0
3Q18: 52.3
Total: 281.3 or about $3,190/credit sold (but that ignores the mismatch of one month in the reporting periods and that 9 other states that follow CA's ZEV regime).

Toyota seems to have bought all of TSLA's CA ZEV credits and ended the period with 75,544.54 as a ZEV credit balance. FCA has the largest balance: 90,722.80.

As a guesstimate of $2,750/credit, Tesla has at least $205.5 MM (ignoring credits earned in 4Q18) available to sell in 4Q18.

 

[neroden]

Luvb2b was *significantly* too conservative (which is, to be fair, the better direction to err in).

I am really looking forward to seeing the 10-Q now so we can see where we went wrong -- but it looks like we have enough information to figure it out mostly.

Automotive revenue was almost spot-on.

The big one was model 3 gross margin, which hit 20% rather than 16%. That only accounts for $131M, though, and luvb2b's operating profit guess was $230M low.

There's $27M more in energy storage revenue, and a better gross margin, which accounts for about $25M more operating profit, but that still leaves about $72M in operating profit which luvb2b missed. Looks like that is a drop in fixed-cost OpEx.

Meanwhile, luvb2b's operating cash flow guess was $400M low, so there's another $170M in cash flow benefits we missed.

Either the stock options issued last quarter were worth less than luvb2b guessed, or there were more ZEV credits -- the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP is only $200M, not $250M. But close enough.

The promissory notes were paid off. (So, Musk definitely has the cash to buy the $20 million of stock he plans to buy! And he's borrowing against less of his stock.)

Capex was $510M instead of $600M.

 

[Fact Checking]

Storage:

Energy generation and storage contracted significantly from 2018-Q1 to Q2: revenue dropped from $185m to $111m.

I believe this was in part the result of the "cannibalization" of the 2170 storage manufacturing line in the Gigafactory, which was re-purposed to make Model 3 battery packs. There is a 2170 cell shortage and it was much easier to wind down Storage temporarily and re-purpose some of its manufacturing capacity than to further delay the Model 3 ramp-up.

For this reason I believe that there's very little Storage related inventory at the moment, and this will probably continue into Q3 and maybe Q4 as well, until Panasonic (and Tesla) adds the new 2170 lines in the Gigafactory.

Conclusion: I believe 97% of final goods are in fact automotive related - this also explains why the estimates produced such a nice match.

This should also make modeling of the other inventory components easier: solar is not growing either but has a constant component in 'raw materials' and a bit in 'work in process', to a level of about $300m with a $240m/$80m split. The rest of the inventory is automotive, and appears to follow DIO modeling pretty well.

I'd expect 'service parts' to scale linearly with the growth of finished goods, but 'raw materials' probably have a lower DIO life-time, because they are only needed for the manufacturing process, not for the delivery process. Deepak has stressed J-I-T inventory management, so I'd not be surprised if the stock of parts and materials was only 2-4 weeks deep, and was similar for the Model S/X and 3 as well. OTOH they might be warehousing Model S/X parts longer, to protect against supplier disruption and eventual parts shortage. But in any case at a round 2k/week run-rate the Model S/X levels should be a constant contribution - the only interesting moving part is the growth due to the Model 3 ramp-up.

Going forward it will again be harder to match inventory levels as solar and storage gets out of their mothballed stage and start growing again, but I think Q3 and maybe even Q4 inventory should be dominated by automotive.

To close this with a prediction of total inventory levels:

• 'Finished goods': the DIO match suggested a 2.5% growth only in finished goods, but the actual unit count growth is 25%. Raw materials will scale with unit count so I'd expect 25% growth there to the Model 3 component, which is around $70m in Q2 as run-rate grew by about 3k/week. Another 1k/week growth in Q3 would add +$23m incremental contribution to 'raw materials' - but let's double it due to the uncertainties to something like +$50m.
• 'Work in process': this grew by +$35m in Q3, and assuming 25% growth there too I'd guesstimate the Q3 contribution to be no more than another +$35m.
• 'Service parts': this grew by +$56m in Q2, which could happen in Q3 too, especially as there's focus on parts availability and Tesla is probably trying to build their body shops as well.
• 'Finished goods': There's my earlier DIO-projected $1,728, but there's probably a slight increase in ASP from $57k to $60k, which would increase this to $1,818m

To summarize:

inventory

---------------

Raw materials

Work in process

Finished goods

Service parts

===============

Total

[TD2] September 30, 2018 (est) [/TD2][TD2] June 30, 2018 [/TD2] [TD2] ---------- [/TD2][TD2] ---------- [/TD2] [TD2] $1,022m [/TD2][TD2] $972m [/TD2] [TD2] $385m [/TD2][TD2] $350m [/TD2] [TD2] $1,818m [/TD2][TD2] $1,721m [/TD2] [TD2] $335m [/TD2][TD2] $279m [/TD2] [TD2] ========== [/TD2][TD2] ========== [/TD2] [TD2] $3,560m [/TD2][TD2] $3,324m [/TD2]

So despite pretty conservative assumptions (other than the two-phase DIO match, which could be an over-match) inventory grows only a little according to this estimate.

Only 7.5 weeks left for the Q3 report to falsify my projection in a very embarrassing fashion!

@luvb2b, we now know the Q3 inventory levels from the Q3 update letter: $3,314m.

My estimate of $3,560m came reasonably close, the two-phase linear approximation didn't count with the aggressive end-of-Q3 inventory reduction measures Tesla applied.

So I think you might want to have another look at your DIO model which over-estimated inventory at ~$4.6b - the two-phase approximation seems to have captured the ramp-up better.

This might have driven some additional improvement in Tesla's cash position - which didn't receive nearly as much gain from the payables cash generation expansion as your model assumed. The two factors were probably a wash.

 

[Do It]

Since earning is less than 48hrs away, I figured I would quote this post so you don’t need to wade back 10 pages.

I did a quick comparison of luvb2b's numbers and the numbers in the release - it is amazing how close they are. Thank you very much luvb2b for the great work providing such an amazingly accurate model!

When the stock was in the 250s and market action forum full of empty posts (or posts of doubts,) your model provided substance and gave me confidence to stay put. Thank you very much and please keep up the great work!

Thanks also go to Fact checking, Brian45011, neroden, and many other who provided valuable input and feedback to the model!

 

[bdy0627]

Outstanding job on your model, Luv! Your work is invaluable and has made this thread the best there is on the forum.

 

[neroden]

I'll note there were actually fewer ZEV credits, which means the value of stock options issued was far lower than luvb2b guessed. (Regarding the differenced between GAAP and non-GAAP.)

 

[luvb2b]

thanks for all the kind words. i can't believe how far away they were from where i guessed, and even more how far off the street was.

the most impressive thing is the cash generation. it's not happening on the back of payables expansion, it seems to be genuine cash margins on products sold. recall i had estimated nearly 30% cash gross margins on the model 3 and 1b cash flow from ops. they did 1.4b cash flow from ops, nearly 35% cash gross margins on the model 3, and this is with receivables growing by 600m.

this is a very rough update from the letter, when i get time i'll run through the 10q and try to update again.

many of the buckets in the balance sheet and cash flow statement are crudely done (inaccurate). i did line items wrong as i don't have details to break them into my usual buckets until the 10q. and here again is the whitespace i can't eliminate.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

dio

dpo

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,566,760[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]210,044[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,356,804 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]171,500[/TD2][TD2]116,597[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]282,720[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,033,504 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,813,536[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,714,400[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]130,227[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,658,163 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]171,500[/TD2][TD2]132,650[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]197,904[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,359,303 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,674,201 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]32.4%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]25.6%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-13.8%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,205,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 469,201 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 303,201 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 283,202 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 333,203 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.82 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]333,203[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]541,203[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.96 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 57.05 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2][TD2] 79.31 [/TD2] [TD2] 77.00 [/TD2][TD2] 61.92 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2][TD2] 80.47 [/TD2] [TD2]3,390,137[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,156,192[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,228,710[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]381,125[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 9,306,165 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,348,826[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]320,000[/TD2][TD2]296,465[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,200,370 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,522,371[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,226,703[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]563,718[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,377,792 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,672,613[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]822,089[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,313,750[/TD2][TD2]2,552,700[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,766,250 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 4,994,120 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]283,202[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-1,191[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]-1,077,272[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]1,111,995[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,276,696 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 422,633 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,390,137 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

 

[sundaymorning]

thanks for all the kind words. i can't believe how far away they were from where i guessed, and even more how far off the street was.

the most impressive thing is the cash generation. it's not happening on the back of payables expansion, it seems to be genuine cash margins on products sold. recall i had estimated nearly 30% cash gross margins on the model 3 and 1b cash flow from ops. they did 1.4b cash flow from ops, nearly 35% cash gross margins on the model 3, and this is with receivables growing by 600m.

this is a very rough update from the letter, when i get time i'll run through the 10q and try to update again.

many of the buckets in the balance sheet and cash flow statement are crudely done (inaccurate). i did line items wrong as i don't have details to break them into my usual buckets until the 10q. and here again is the whitespace i can't eliminate.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

dio

dpo

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,566,760[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]210,044[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,356,804 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]171,500[/TD2][TD2]116,597[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]282,720[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,033,504 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,813,536[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,714,400[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]130,227[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,658,163 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]171,500[/TD2][TD2]132,650[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]197,904[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,359,303 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,674,201 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]32.4%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]25.6%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-13.8%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,205,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 469,201 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 303,201 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 283,202 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 333,203 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.82 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]333,203[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]541,203[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.96 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 57.05 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2][TD2] 79.31 [/TD2] [TD2] 77.00 [/TD2][TD2] 61.92 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2][TD2] 80.47 [/TD2] [TD2]3,390,137[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,156,192[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,228,710[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]381,125[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 9,306,165 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,348,826[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]320,000[/TD2][TD2]296,465[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,200,370 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,522,371[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,226,703[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]563,718[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,377,792 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,672,613[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]822,089[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,313,750[/TD2][TD2]2,552,700[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,766,250 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 4,994,120 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]283,202[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-1,191[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]-1,077,272[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]1,111,995[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,276,696 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 422,633 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,390,137 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

Please don’t stop posting. Fantastic model!

 

[heltok]

Thanks again luvb2b! Same as I said when you posted your model for Q3 I think you are being conservative on the Model 3 production numbers. Tesla seem to have started the quarter at 4800/week, new lines are being added and lemur in the mix I assume that they will soon be above that. I see a slow ramp from 4800 to 7000 during the quarter, a 6000average for 12 weeks for a final production of 72000. With 28000S+X that should take to a very nice round 100k total cars.

 

[Buckminster]

thanks for all the kind words. i can't believe how far away they were from where i guessed, and even more how far off the street was.

the most impressive thing is the cash generation. it's not happening on the back of payables expansion, it seems to be genuine cash margins on products sold. recall i had estimated nearly 30% cash gross margins on the model 3 and 1b cash flow from ops. they did 1.4b cash flow from ops, nearly 35% cash gross margins on the model 3, and this is with receivables growing by 600m.

this is a very rough update from the letter, when i get time i'll run through the 10q and try to update again.

many of the buckets in the balance sheet and cash flow statement are crudely done (inaccurate). i did line items wrong as i don't have details to break them into my usual buckets until the 10q. and here again is the whitespace i can't eliminate.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

dio

dpo

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,566,760[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]210,044[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,356,804 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]171,500[/TD2][TD2]116,597[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]282,720[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,033,504 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,813,536[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,714,400[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]130,227[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,658,163 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]171,500[/TD2][TD2]132,650[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]197,904[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,359,303 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,674,201 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]32.4%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]25.6%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-13.8%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,205,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 469,201 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 303,201 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 283,202 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 333,203 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.82 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]333,203[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]541,203[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.96 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 57.05 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2][TD2] 79.31 [/TD2] [TD2] 77.00 [/TD2][TD2] 61.92 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2][TD2] 80.47 [/TD2] [TD2]3,390,137[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,156,192[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,228,710[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]381,125[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 9,306,165 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,348,826[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]320,000[/TD2][TD2]296,465[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,200,370 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,522,371[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,226,703[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]563,718[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,377,792 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,672,613[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]822,089[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,313,750[/TD2][TD2]2,552,700[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,766,250 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 4,994,120 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]283,202[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-1,191[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]-1,077,272[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]1,111,995[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,276,696 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 422,633 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,390,137 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

I knew it; Deepak didn't have the time on the numbers so he just copied them over from Mr Lover:

 

[Fact Checking]

As a guesstimate of $2,750/credit, Tesla has at least $205.5 MM (ignoring credits earned in 4Q18) available to sell in 4Q18.

IIRC Tesla never rolls ZEV credits over to the next year, so they'll probably sell all of them in Q4, right?

 

[Fact Checking]

this is a very rough update from the letter, when i get time i'll run through the 10q and try to update again.

I think deferred revenue recognition due to them releasing Navigation on Autopilot in Q4 might be significant.

 

[generalenthu]

Anyone knows why diluted shares went up by 8.2 million sequentially. That's about 2.5 billion.

 

[cricketman]

Guys, I called this yesterday, but on the wrong thread so nobody heard me

Copy and past below:

cricketman, Tuesday at 3:15 PM
Elon is in a good mood and they brought the earnings call forward

I think this means a very good profit of at least $200m. Remember $200m is the just a small matter of whether 2,500 Performance Model 3s got out the door on time or not

And Q4 profit will be at least $500m.

Which means market cap should be up to $100m before the end of the year"

I don't know why I am sharing this, but some recognition of my genius would be nice

Hopefully the $100m market cap before the end of the year prediction comes true as well. I have 1,000 shares and I am staying in until at least $3,000 share price, unless it goes up real quick in which case it will be tempting to cash in a small percentage

 

[mongo]

Guys, I called this yesterday, but on the wrong thread so nobody heard me

Copy and past below:

cricketman, Tuesday at 3:15 PM
Elon is in a good mood and they brought the earnings call forward

I think this means a very good profit of at least $200m. Remember $200m is the just a small matter of whether 2,500 Performance Model 3s got out the door on time or not

And Q4 profit will be at least $500m.

Which means market cap should be up to $100m before the end of the year"

I don't know why I am sharing this, but some recognition of my genius would be nice

Hopefully the $100m market cap before the end of the year prediction comes true as well. I have 1,000 shares and I am staying in until at least $3,000 share price, unless it goes up real quick in which case it will be tempting to cash in a small percentage

Did that thread only have the sound of crickets, man?

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone knows why diluted shares went up by 8.2 million sequentially. That's about 2.5 billion.

That's just for the "diluted EPS" calculation, which per GAAP requires all convertible securities to be accounted as if all were excercised.

Elon reaffirmed their guidance that Tesla is going to pay back all convertible debt from cash flow - i.e. no dilution is going to happen.

I.e. it's an accounting fiction that will gradually go away as the convertible notes are paid back in cash.