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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by sub, Aug 7, 2013.
Couldn't help myself . Let the speculation begin.
Thread title squatter you!
Sorry, did it more for the laugh at this point but maybe it will get the discussion moving once everyone recovers from today.
So while you were at it why not also start a thread titled "Q4 2014 results - projections and expectations":smile:
ouch, guess that's what I get for having a sense of humor. Back to taking life to serious I guess.
The smiley face at the end of sentence indicated aronth5 was joking.
So, what's your analysis say about Q3?
a) increase guidance of 21k units a year to 23.5k units
b) increase guidance about Europe (Norway)
c) news about China
d) GM on track to reach 26.7% at the end of Q4
e) additional details on Model X
f) GenIII pushed one year to make more money on Model S/X
I think this is spot on. The traffic lately about battery constraint has pointed out that Gen III just may not be possible due to supply. But, put another way, Gen III isn't really the smart play for Tesla due to the constraint. I was out for my evening run and in my delerium I realized how smart/easy it would be to announce a 2 door sport coupe on a smaller frame with AWD and a tiny backseat. Basically a lighter, smaller less practical model S with serious spring in it's step. Would it sell 500k a year? No, but thats the point. You can sell it for 90k at high margins RIGHT NOW at lowish volumes. And the investment cost would be miniscule, lacking any of the model X challenges. And by that logic, you can do a new roadster too. Basically stop and make money on the Model S/X/C, while battery partners spin up their factories.
Maybe Tesla can reach 23.5k in 2013 and 26.7% at the end of Q4 but they wouldn't give that als guidance after Q3. What is there left to surprise if they do that? If they are confident they will reach those numbers they will raise guidance to something like 22k and 25.5%. Save the potential for an upside result and minimize the chance of a disappointment.
What, no numerical predictions yet? In that case I'll be the first to call $1000! :wink:
Apologies if I missed that.
- - - Updated - - -
Not sure my opinion would help anyone, I'm out gunned significantly in this forum. I did get the sense that Elon was playing games/under promising significantly on the cc.
Mod Note: some posts went here - Executive-Stretch-Model-S
We are halfway through the quarter...I believe VINs north of 20k should be getting assigned this week. I will guess optimistically 6k-7k deliveries for Q3 with 20% margin excluding ZEV credits. This is my guess...would like to hear if anyone else has any guesses yet now that we're at the halfway point
I think it's not an issue of how many cars are produced, I think everyone here believes they are above 500 a week since Elon stated this fact. The wild card again seems to be the euro deliveries correct? I'm guessing 20% GM, no idea on ZEV, I'll leave that to those smarter than myself, lots of them here.
Using Sleepyhead's spreadsheet and a 16% gross margin before CAFE/GHG credits and assuming $20 million in ZEV credits and 6,000 cars delivered with a $96k ASP and making a couple other adjustments I get $0.17/share. owever, non-gaap earnings are is also $0.05/share fully excluding ZEV credits so maybe Tesla will emphasize that they no longer need ZEV credits to be profitable.
Anyway, in my mind the 2 big questions are what is the street looking for most, and how much ZEV can we expect? Hopefully the street will be happy to see that Tesla does not need ZEV credits to be profitable and they will be happy if they get halfway to the 25% gross margin goal. If Tesla can get to 21% instead of 19% in my model that adds $0.09 cents/share and would be a much more positive report.
I realize there is still a month left in the quarter so things may change between now and then. But everything hinges on margin this time. I have no idea how to figure out gross margin improvements other than to have faith Tesla will deliver.
We got vin 2025x on 8/15. On the vin forum if they didn't skip any numbers the vin posted before ours was 100+ vins per day.
With the recent crash test news it almost has to be higher than that now.
Is your delivery date confirmed? The reason I quoted 20077 was that is TMC's highest reported VIN in the update thread with a delivery confirmed still in Q3. There's higher VINs already but deliveries=revenue so relevance to this thread is essentially delivery date.
NigelM - What was the last VIN # delivered in Q2; or approximately which number excluding outliers?