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Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

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I'm all for making the threads private somehow. Right now we're doing all the work for the analysts and while we do get paid because we know it before they do and can use it, it'd still be better if they'd go digging around randomly and then Tesla surprises them :) With regard to not playing with this release I think it's relatively impossible for Tesla not to exceed Q2 numbers. If it just matches them we're on track to ~20.5k deliveries. Same for Q4. However we do know that Q3 and now Q4 will have higher weekly rates meaning that it will exceed (we just don't know how much) and therefore the guidance is likely to increase. If TSLA delivers 6k cars we're at 16k this year and only need 5k more to match the updated 21k number. More likely Q4 is at least as much as Q3 so 22-23k.
 
Making threads private: Not a bad idea but not going to happen most likely. Also, Sleepy hit Q2 ER and guidance perfectly and either no analysts saw it or used it as it appears they were all caught off guard. I think many analysts look as this forum and think we are all zealots (which we may be) that thinks TM/Musk can do no wrong so they are leery about putting their client's money on the line based on what they read here.

The TM forum VIN accumulation thread is not private. cfOH wanted to keep it open and I respect his wishes. There are multiple sources of this info if analysts/individuals want to use it.
 
I think DonPedro is right and that's what I was initially saying too. Right now the amount of Teslas sold in EU is peanuts. 10x to 100x that would not be a problem even in the case of niche market with mostly early adopters and their friends and friends of friends who have actual experience with the car. The rampup might be slow because the halo effect is exponential and means that initially it'll start slow (i.e. 60 cars in Q3), but there's plenty of growth that is still untapped. We'll not get large EU numbers in Q3 or Q4, but once the Tesla infrastructure is shaping up the EU contribution is going to pick up.

My numbers say Europe contributed 18% of the global sales in Q3. That's not peanuts. :)
 
By taking the number of VINs issued up until the end of June and then comparing that to the number of cars delivered I see that 77.5% of VINs issued up until the end of June were delivered. If I take 77.5% of the 8,620 VINs issued in Q3 I get 6,680 deliveries.

There is not strong reason to believe that the percentage you refer to will stay constant. So this method has little merit.
 
I'm all for making the threads private somehow. Right now we're doing all the work for the analysts and while we do get paid because we know it before they do and can use it, it'd still be better if they'd go digging around randomly and then Tesla surprises them :) With regard to not playing with this release I think it's relatively impossible for Tesla not to exceed Q2 numbers. If it just matches them we're on track to ~20.5k deliveries. Same for Q4. However we do know that Q3 and now Q4 will have higher weekly rates meaning that it will exceed (we just don't know how much) and therefore the guidance is likely to increase. If TSLA delivers 6k cars we're at 16k this year and only need 5k more to match the updated 21k number. More likely Q4 is at least as much as Q3 so 22-23k.
Yeah the whole issue in my head is what does the market really expect? I guess though if I look at the analyst estimates I see from one source they are $.06. This is clearly wrong. So if that is the estimate going around right before earnings maybe I will buy some options. I mean I do expect at least 4 times that number and that would make an impressive story for people not paying attention.
 
Let me tell You a word or two about the reception of Tesla and EV´s in Germany. This is an opinion.

Consider it at least rough, if not hostile terrain for the time being.

Germans are a conservative people that are very hard to convince of the good of the other way. Other paths than the most trodden are often viewed with great suspicion. Americans seem to me much more adaptable to „the new“ in general.Germans perceive their cars as their lovechild („Des Deutschen liebstes Kind“ is even a proverb for the car). The german Auto-industry is among the best and biggest in the world. We care about a lot about the condition of our Freeways and a lot of daily talk at work spins around which Autobahn may be jam-free at the end of the day. Sprit-prices are a matter of daily discussion. The industry provides a ton of jobs over here, too. In my opinion there is a lot of fear of change over here. Fear to lose the Nr.1 position, fear to lose money, jobs, and fear being inferior on a field that people regard as Nr.1 priority. There are other reasons that have to do with the "energy-tournaround" politics of the Gov, but that would lead too far here. The incentives the Merkel-Government is giving for EV´s is miserable compared to what other governments do (10 year- tax free).

That being said: Once You convince Germans and overcome this suspicion, You have dropped an anchor in their hearts and minds that can hold for a VERY long time. Longer perhaps than with most other people. And it sits tight. That is what gives me hope for the Gen.III (Model E ?), because to win Germany, Tesla has to do (and is doing) the following:

1.) build an affordable - max. 30.000 € - car (Germany may be rich, Germans are not. The middle class are aching under the high cost pressure from every corner)
2.) The car has most advantages of the Model S but range must be even better. People here want to blast over the Autobahn driving 140-160+ km/h (87-100+ mph), it is their usual habit :)
3.) Make Germans realize that they can drive for free through the Supercharger System from Munich to Hamburg and to their holiday destinations
4.) Convince them that Tesla cars are cleaner than ICE´s and that battery technology is contemporary – It sounds strange on this forum but it is a major argument of the many many critics I read on the forums throughout the media landscape over here

You might say that Tesla already is doing these things but that is exactly my point. It takes a looong time to kick in here. I am convinced this will change when germans SEE the Model S, it will grow with the superchargers and the Model X and become an Avalanche in about 5 years, if Tesla does the Gen III right. If Tesla manages to make the Gen III the new „Volkswagen“, they will have a stable consistent place in the Auto-Heart of the german consumers. I have no doubt this will happen, if Tesla holds course.

So I wouldn`t say germans are not pleased with Tesla, but there is a LOT of work to convincing to do here. Once it´s done, a big steady flow of revenue will be coming from Germany.

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry. I had this thread formatted nicely but my browser or whatever does not allow me to edit this properly.
I will bring it in shape once I come home.:mad:

Nice perspective. What company you think is at the most risk being disrupted? In another word is there a Nokia or blackberry analogy being disrupted by Apple?
 
I'm all for making the threads private somehow. Right now we're doing all the work for the analysts and while we do get paid because we know it before they do and can use it, it'd still be better if they'd go digging around randomly and then Tesla surprises them :) With regard to not playing with this release I think it's relatively impossible for Tesla not to exceed Q2 numbers. If it just matches them we're on track to ~20.5k deliveries. Same for Q4. However we do know that Q3 and now Q4 will have higher weekly rates meaning that it will exceed (we just don't know how much) and therefore the guidance is likely to increase. If TSLA delivers 6k cars we're at 16k this year and only need 5k more to match the updated 21k number. More likely Q4 is at least as much as Q3 so 22-23k.

One way to make this precious private is to share by Google Docs and set the permissions level.

Then share the URL to the spreadsheet privately.

It would be nice that this forum require login to protect some content.
 
Kevin's fishing for a shoort, kevin's fishing for a shoort (read in a child singing voice). Sorry, couldn't resist ;)

I want to stay away from trading and focus on just business. :) Imagine in 5 years and we look back at the rear mirror, isn't another perfect storm coming that nobody sees it? Start reading where Blackberry was at 5 years ago.

As I view Tesla as 100 times of Apple, in term of product scale (think model S vs iPhone, in term of ingenuity, price, difficulty of making it), therefore it will be 100 times harder to dodge a perfect storm, if a target does exist.
 
Did any one study the correlation between cfOH's VIN assignment rates vs actual deliveries in the past few quarters?

Jefferies report says that we should be looking at VIN assignment rates as of early September because it takes about a month to deliver the car.

I'm seeing all kinds of wild projections for Q3. But, this logic sounds a bit more reasonable.
 
Did any one study the correlation between cfOH's VIN assignment rates vs actual deliveries in the past few quarters?

Jefferies report says that we should be looking at VIN assignment rates as of early September because it takes about a month to deliver the car.

I'm seeing all kinds of wild projections for Q3. But, this logic sounds a bit more reasonable.

Basically using VINs to predict actual deliveries is a bit of a 'crap shoot'. Some US customers (particularly close to the factory) get a VIN one day and two weeks later have a car. Some Europeans get their VINs and do not see the car for months. Higher profit cars are pushed out quicker than lower profit ones (read P85+ vs 60) even though the '60' has an earlier assigned VIN.

So, at best it is a guesstimation.
 
kevin99: Nice perspective. What company you think is at the most risk being disrupted? In another word is there a Nokia or blackberry analogy being disrupted by Apple?

its the volkswagen group, sadly. They got no EV-Game.

I agree with makeuz here about VW being in danger. I think in the oncoming EV-revolution we will see a few casualties, not only in Germany.
Hard to predict of course, but I`d say any company not planning a decent all electric car within say the next 3 years will have a very hard time.
Any company without a decent all electric car within the next 10 years is probably doomed.
 
I think we need to stop with these VIN # based car sales predictions in this forum. Analysts are writing articles on them now which can drive the stock up with high hopes and then have a serious reversal if Tesla announces sales less than the VIN # based predictions in this forum. It's for our own good.
 
I think we need to stop with these VIN # based car sales predictions in this forum. Analysts are writing articles on them now which can drive the stock up with high hopes and then have a serious reversal if Tesla announces sales less than the VIN # based predictions in this forum. It's for our own good.
I think trying to hide information is always a losing proposition. Either the numbers are good and it causes an appropriate stock move or they're bad and the stock makes an entirely appropriate correction.
 
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