Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

[TSLAopt]

I think trying to hide information is always a losing proposition. Either the numbers are good and it causes an appropriate stock move or they're bad and the stock makes an entirely appropriate correction.

I thnk there's a chance we're setting ourselves up for dissapointment. There may be a whole crapload of cars in transit to Europe at the end of the quarter or maybe they are now randomly skipping VINs to throw us off in the future, etc. I don't think we should count on the VINs as an absolutely valid measurement for an estimate of how many they're even building anymore. Having said this I'm long 200% still and hope I'm wrong, but at the same time am worried that we're getting over zealously carried away here. We are all drinking the kool aid and put a bunch of us in a room together and who knows what kind of predictions we'll start making beyond reality.

 

[ckessel]

I thnk there's a chance we're setting ourselves up for dissapointment.

Quite possibly, but I don't think that's a good reason to start hiding information. If we're wrong, we'll be disappointed, oh well.

I'll drown my incredibly brief misery in a beer and go watch football

 

[InTheShadows]

I think the use of vins is reliable right now. I don't see them trying to throw us off by making vins higher than they really are, they already know we use them and making them higher would certainly lead to negative sentiment. I also see it as a way to communicate to the faithful and diligent ones to empower them to get some benefits for investing so much time evangelizing the company. Until Tesla changes to a scrambled algorithm I think the numbers will be reliable. My feelings are until they scramble them, they want us to have them.

 

[TSLAopt]

I think the use of vins is reliable right now. I don't see them trying to throw us off by making vins higher than they really are, they already know we use them and making them higher would certainly lead to negative sentiment. I also see it as a way to communicate to the faithful and diligent ones to empower them to get some benefits for investing so much time evangelizing the company. Until Tesla changes to a scrambled algorithm I think the numbers will be reliable. My feelings are until they scramble them, they want us to have them.

I hope this is true but feel there is a chance it is not, that's all. I would estimate it at 20-30% chance they already started scrambling the VINs somehow and will let everyone know on the conference call so we don't rely on it anymore. This 20-30% chance I believe is considerable.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Quite possibly, but I don't think that's a good reason to start hiding information. If we're wrong, we'll be disappointed, oh well.

I'll drown my incredibly brief misery in a beer and go watch football

https://scontent-a-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/1394462_641833972506348_1648309761_n.jpg

 

[DaveT]

I think the use of vins is reliable right now. I don't see them trying to throw us off by making vins higher than they really are, they already know we use them and making them higher would certainly lead to negative sentiment. I also see it as a way to communicate to the faithful and diligent ones to empower them to get some benefits for investing so much time evangelizing the company. Until Tesla changes to a scrambled algorithm I think the numbers will be reliable. My feelings are until they scramble them, they want us to have them.

In Q1, VINs were very reliable and those who relied on those benefited greatly.

In Q2, VINs were not reliable since TSLA introduced European production and skipped around with VINs. Those who relied on VINs for Q2 projections did not provide very accurate predictions. In fact, most of them overshot. Some of us relied on weekly and quarterly production numbers coming out of factory, and that provided for the most accurate projections.

In Q3, I don't see how VINs will be reliable. We have no clue regarding the following:
1. How many cars on are the boat
2. How many VINs have been skipped
3. How many VINs were assigned but not finished at the factory (ie., end of Q2 there were a bunch of European cars not finished)

I can see how VINs might help with giving us a sense of production ramping up (ie., increasing number of VINs issued weekly) but I don't see it reliable in projecting how many cars were produced in Q3.

To me the most accurate data will be any numbers out of the factory from factory tours. But I haven't heard much in recent weeks regarding this.

 

[maekuz]

I think we need to stop with these VIN # based car sales predictions in this forum. Analysts are writing articles on them now which can drive the stock up with high hopes and then have a serious reversal if Tesla announces sales less than the VIN # based predictions in this forum. It's for our own good.

I didnt use the VINs but rather gathered the registration numbers for July, August and September in every country. I did find a quite good source for USA registrations which seems a bit more accurate than the Autodata numbers. Per definition registrations are deliveries, so i reckon that this data will provide a much better result than the VIN based method. But I wont post that Excel sheet here because of said analysts. Anyone interested in these numbers can shoot me a PM and i will send you the compiled registration data.

 

[JRP3]

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/is-tesla-selling-more-cars-than-everyone-thinks.html/

From the provided VIN numbers, Froehle found that the VIN sequence reached 25730 as of Tuesday, meaning 25,730 units since Tesla began production. Subtracting the 12,550 units Tesla already reported to have delivered since the end of the second quarter, Froehle came to a 13,180 figure, which still doesn’t account for cars with European VINs. Thus, even if Tesla didn’t sell half of those cars in the third quarter, its quarterly sales would still reflect a 27 percent increase from those in the second quarter, and that manages to blow away analyst expectations.

Funny thing, the trolls on Seeking Alpha, instead of trying their previous tactic of predicting low sales numbers, are now trying to pretend every outrageously high prediction is "baked into the stock price" so any thing less will be a "disappointment."

 

[sleepyhead]

Just for the record, I believe that the more information we make public the better for TSLA stock and for us investors.

If we keep this information private and to ourselves, then the rest of the world will be playing a guessing game and the stock will not be trading on fundamentals and it will trade with huge volatility.

The more information that we make public, the more stable the share price will be and the less stress we will have to endure as investors.

I feel like 3 months ago I was the only person in the world who knew that solar would take off and after a good Q2, the solar stocks started tanking because Wall St. didn't get solar. If more people, including Wall St., had all the information that I had in my head then I wouldn't have to wait so long for these solar stocks to get properly valued; still waiting...

I think it is pretty straightforward:

1. Elon shares information that he knows only the biggest Tesla fans will now how to compile and take advantage of, whether it be VIN assignments, or some seemingly random comment made during a Q&A session in some speech he gave in Montana.

2. We interpret the information and compile it for every other Tesla maniac to learn.

3. We buy stock and options.

4. About a week later the smart institutions start buying shares based on this information.

5. Four weeks later some media starts picking up on the info and so do some of the analysts.

6. Wall St. and the general public start understanding and the share price continues going up.


The people who benefit most in this scenario is us. Therefore, we should share this information.

Now please help me share the word on solar. Feel free to forward the links in my signature to anyone you know. I am that confident on my calls.

More articles to come. Next one might even be on Tesla

 

[InTheShadows]

When I look at Craig's chart I don't see many holes like we were seeing Q2. It also makes sense that they are delivering EU cars early in the quarter so they don't have that many in transit at the end if the quarter. It looks like very few people in the US are getting cars right now. My guess is that's because most of the ones coming off the line are heading for Europe.

Here is Craig's chart from the teslamotors website.

 

[sub]

I didnt use the VINs but rather gathered the registration numbers for July, August and September in every country. I did find a quite good source for USA registrations which seems a bit more accurate than the Autodata numbers. Per definition registrations are deliveries, so i reckon that this data will provide a much better result than the VIN based method. But I wont post that Excel sheet here because of said analysts. Anyone interested in these numbers can shoot me a PM and i will send you the compiled registration data.

Do you know for sure everyone here is not an analyst? I'm not of course, just saying. Post away!

 

[AlMc]

Whether VINs are discussed here or on the TM site, they are discussed openly enough that analysts can find them with minimal effort. We all know (or should know) that VINs assigned do not equal immediate sales and that there are several things that influence the relationship of #of VINs to # of sales. Until we have monthly sales figures from TM it is basically an educated crap shoot. Most of the people who frequent these threads know this fact.

 

[Robert.Boston]

From a purely technical POV, we don't have a capability here on TMC to create limited-access threads. We have a lot of visitors on TMC, but limiting access to registered users wouldn't accomplish anything because registration is free.

 

[Citizen-T]

Open, free, accessible information is the best way to combat FUD. There is an awful lot of FUD out there, let's put as much information out there as we can.

 

[sleepyhead]

Open, free, accessible information is the best way to combat FUD. There is an awful lot of FUD out there, let's put as much information out there as we can.

Exactly. You guys complain that there is a lot of FUD out there but don't want to share all of the information we have here. Can't have it both ways.

Transparency is the best solution.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Reading through it I have to agree with Sleepy. The FUD factor is probably the biggest reason that this data should be shared. Firstly of course amongst ourselves, but once we formulate the picture well enough and have probably taken advantage of this knowledge we shouldn't only just have it public I think we should in fact encourage people with the knowhow also to dissipate it on blogging sites like SA etc. Yes, there are tons of trolls, but getting the positive message out in tandem with all the short FUD articles helps to balance it out and pull analyst attention to those details. While I originally was a proponent of making it private it was mostly driven by the virtual entitlement we sometimes feel for the small community who's in the know and wants to use the information for our own advantage I feel that Sleepy's reasons are good points to reverse my position. And heck, who am I to advocate this much anyway, only been around a couple of months. And kicking myself for it as I've been investing and playing TSLA for 1.5 years and how the heck did I not come to check this forum earlier than when I started to seriously consider buying the car (duh).

 

[Sunnyday]

Open, free, accessible information is the best way to combat FUD. There is an awful lot of FUD out there, let's put as much information out there as we can.

Amen. Viva transparency. More, better information, widely disseminated, benefits shareholders.

 

[StapleGun]

There was suggestions to make the forum private in the past, and if that had happened many of us wouldn't be here now. Possibly including Craig who joined in July, and has provided incredible information which we all could have lost out on. I am very grateful for anyone who choses to share their research on this board (Sleepy, Craig, CapOp, etc...) as they have no requirement to do so.

That said, I did find this article interesting as it shows what someone who just glances at the data might falsely infer.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Could Blast Past Guidance

[VIN info from Craig] means that by the end of the third quarter, Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) had delivered more than 22,000 Model S sedans. This likely means that the automaker has already outpaced its own guidance for the entire year, and we haven’t even gotten into fourth quarter numbers yet.

 

[mrdoubleb]

There was suggestions to make the forum private in the past, and if that had happened many of us wouldn't be here now. Possibly including Craig who joined in July, and has provided incredible information which we all could have lost out on. I am very grateful for anyone who choses to share their research on this board (Sleepy, Craig, CapOp, etc...) as they have no requirement to do so.

That said, I did find this article interesting as it shows what someone who just glances at the data might falsely infer.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Could Blast Past Guidance

I've seen versions of this article a couple of times during the past few days and it is strating to worry me a bit. As one of the comments notes, VINs are no longer sequential - probably in order to prevent what is happening right now.

The reason why I am a bit worried is, that if the mainstream media starts to run with this, pretty soon expectations will be for a 10k Q3. So when we do recieve the actual numbers (personally expecting 6000 sold, another 500-800 produced but serving as a loaner/on a boat to Europe), the market will be disappointed - even if they will beat guidance.

 

[Convert2013]

I've seen versions of this article a couple of times during the past few days and it is strating to worry me a bit. As one of the comments notes, VINs are no longer sequential - probably in order to prevent what is happening right now.

The reason why I am a bit worried is, that if the mainstream media starts to run with this, pretty soon expectations will be for a 10k Q3. So when we do recieve the actual numbers (personally expecting 6000 sold, another 500-800 produced but serving as a loaner/on a boat to Europe), the market will be disappointed - even if they will beat guidance.

Yeah. I've noticed the articles are now coming out in droves and this is what I mentioned earlier. Perhaps can be rectified by some sort of pre-earnings release or real analysis from analysts at the big boys with price targets. The VIN# analysis thread discussions are confusing many of the less brighter analysts and they are producing junk reports. Perhaps the MODERATORS can change the name of the thread to clearly read "Speculative XYZ..." or something similar to warn any analyst peeping in. Just like the shorts have been feeding inaccurate articles all these months, we don't want to be yet another regular source of easily confusable information that eventually generates inaccuracies for the public/investors.