Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

[RationalOptimist]

I just found a bigger version of the picture in that guy's weibo (Chinese twitter) account and can confirm that all the numbers in EarlyAdopter's post above are exactly correct. this was taken yesterday, almost 4 weeks after the end of Q3. DaveT's estimate 525/week x 12 weeks = 6300 production for Q3 seems more reasonable.

What's odd about that pic is that there are columns there for Sat and Sun. Presumably those are at least sometimes used. On that production rate, working six days a week = 684 cars, and if they are geared up for 7 day, you get to 800. So the Q is what does 570 as 'goal' mean? That might mean "get there and we're done", or it could perhaps mean "this is the goal we agreed at the start of the quarter... but it's there to be smashed wide open".

 

[AlMc]

Davet,
I agree with you that by itself the assignment of VINs is not a reliable indicator. That is sort of my reason for my Q2 analysis first to show a metric on HOW unreliable the VINS are and how I came up with my magic PROPORTION (83.9%) number noted below. I first looked at Q2 actual deliveries (5150) and compared it to the difference between actual delivered cars VINs at start of Q2 to end of Q2. 5150 turns out to be 83.9% of that number. Therefore, I took that same PROPORTION (83.9%) and applied it to the difference between actual delivered cars VINs at start of Q3 to end of Q3.
i think the 83.9% PROPORTION is key for my estimate, and am tempted to do the same thing for Q1 to see if its also close to 83.9% but there were no cars being made for Europe at the end of Q1 and if I remember correct they had a lot of temp workers in Q1 so those two things combined I'm not sure if that would make a completely different PROPORTION number or not.

If you or anyone can tell me what they think the fallacies in using this 83.9% PROPORTION method are then please let me know

I have absolutely no problem with your rationale for 83.9%. But we still are assuming that this percentage translates from one quarter to the next. I hope your numbers are right as it would be a blow out number even for the most optimistic people on this forum and will make a couple new Teslanaires.

 

[blakegallagher]

Its going to be important to get a early reservation in IMO to be sure you get the tax credit. $5k seems too high and since it is supposed to be an affordable car that should also mean an affordable reservation amount, $1k - $2.5k

I highly doubt there will be any tax credits on the Gen 3 .

 

[AlMc]

Blake....Will TM have sold over 200,000 vehicles before Gen III or do you feel there will be a shut down of the tax credit program? At the end of this year TM will have sold maybe 25-30K cars domestically, and if they hit their 40-50K goal in 2014 probably 30-35K of those are domestic. I just don't see it hitting 200K in domestic production/consumption before Gen III. I can see the first 50K of Gen III still being available for the credit.
So, it probably will be very important that once the reservations open up that US purchasers get in line asap.

Just my thoughts. Al



There may be no incentives left if people rush in to order an S or X, increasing demand, as TM gets close to announcing the reservation list for Gen III will be opening. Might be good marketing tool for TM to get people buying the higher GM cars before gen III comes out.

 

[Cattledog]

Yes, we're a long way away from it, but recall the mad dash to reserve cars at the end of 2012 when Tesla had annouced a price increase effective 1/1/13. (This next sentence is all from memory, too lazy to check the math) Reservations went from the 50-60s per day about a month before the deadline, to around 100/day the week before to several hundred (I believe) on 12/31. If somewhere in mid-2016 Tesla announces there are only got 20,000 credits left, I bet that juices the reservations. And that might be when a 4-year old Model S could use the juice.

 

[gym7rjm]

Blake....Will TM have sold over 200,000 vehicles before Gen III or do you feel there will be a shut down of the tax credit program? At the end of this year TM will have sold maybe 25-30K cars domestically, and if they hit their 40-50K goal in 2014 probably 30-35K of those are domestic. I just don't see it hitting 200K in domestic production/consumption before Gen III. I can see the first 50K of Gen III still being available for the credit.
So, it probably will be very important that once the reservations open up that US purchasers get in line asap.

Just my thoughts. Al



There may be no incentives left if people rush in to order an S or X, increasing demand, as TM gets close to announcing the reservation list for Gen III will be opening. Might be good marketing tool for TM to get people buying the higher GM cars before gen III comes out.

If it is timed correctly and gen 3 production ramps up quickly then quite a lot of gen 3 cars could qualify for the rebate. There is a wind down period after the 200k vehicle is sold where the rebate drops in value. First drop is down to 5k for 6 months and then to 2.5k for yet another 6 months. The loophole that Tesla could take advantage of is that there are no restrictions on the number of vehicle that qualify during this wind down period. The timing might not work out perfect, but there could be a situation where a significant number of gen 3 cars qualify.

 

[Convert2013]

What's odd about that pic is that there are columns there for Sat and Sun. Presumably those are at least sometimes used. On that production rate, working six days a week = 684 cars, and if they are geared up for 7 day, you get to 800. So the Q is what does 570 as 'goal' mean? That might mean "get there and we're done", or it could perhaps mean "this is the goal we agreed at the start of the quarter... but it's there to be smashed wide open".

Exactly. What we need to take away from this sign is PRODUCTION CAPABILTY. It's pretty clear that Elon has successfully crunched out 570 cars in 4 days and that equates to a current weekly production capability of approximately 1000 cars/ week. Not sure when they idle the plant for maintenance and tooling for production increases, most likely 3rd shift when there is no production. He is setting up for a massive demand storm for 2014.

 

[Lessmog]

Exactly. What we need to take away from this sign is PRODUCTION CAPABILTY. It's pretty clear that Elon has successfully crunched out 570 cars in 4 days and that equates to a current weekly production capability of approximately 1000 cars/ week.

No, actually 570 in five days - 114 per day or approx 800 in a seven day work week. All other things equal. Which they may not be at all times. Still pretty impressive, especially since they seem to have hit the week's target surprisingly consistently.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

I think we should just apply the most reliable data source, which is from Mr Musk that they started the Q3 with ~ 500/W and exit with ~550/W. Just saw a picture taken from some Chinese tourist indicating the production rate as of today (not very clear though), which pretty much supports the 550/W at the end of Q3.View attachment 33932

Isn't this TV usually off during tours?

 

[BruceH]

Do you have a link to this?

Isn't this TV usually off during tours?

Apparently this Chinese guy didn't mean to "probe" the production info, he was just another tourist, took a bunch of pictures, still cited the 500/W and 21000, and amazed by the automated factory, that's all.
Attached are the link of the Chinese Twitter (weibo) website of this guy and the clearer pic of the TV:

 

[Sus]

No, actually 570 in five days - 114 per day or approx 800 in a seven day work week. All other things equal. Which they may not be at all times. Still pretty impressive, especially since they seem to have hit the week's target surprisingly consistently.

The factory runs 5 days/week (not 7 days). So with 114/day, the production would be 570/week, not 800.

 

[brianman]

The factory runs 5 days/week (not 7 days). So with 114/day, the production would be 570/week, not 800.

I suspect the confusion is that the 570 number already incorporates this projected value, rather than just being a sum of the Mon-Thu data.

 

[Convert2013]

No, actually 570 in five days - 114 per day or approx 800 in a seven day work week. All other things equal. Which they may not be at all times. Still pretty impressive, especially since they seem to have hit the week's target surprisingly consistently.

OK so looks like this was taken last Thursday and still doesn't show the data for Friday just yet, and that makes sense. You are correct. And yes still impressive.

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

Here is a datapoint for everyone, just saw VIN # 253XX ready for delivery here in the Northwest.

 

[ckessel]

Well, that 570 throws cold water on any hopes of a blowout quarter. Good sure, but if it's just now at 570 then that puts a pretty hard cap on the max cars built in Q3.

 

[MikeC]

Well, that 570 throws cold water on any hopes of a blowout quarter. Good sure, but if it's just now at 570 then that puts a pretty hard cap on the max cars built in Q3.

Yeah, now I'm confused about those factory reports of ~550/week from June. Definitely lower than I was thinking.

Do we have confirmation that this tour happened last week or could it have been earlier?

 

[bonnie]

I'm not sure how people got to the point of expecting more than this. This (570) is a phenomenal number and should be celebrated! Manufacturing is a complex dance and you don't get to a number like this without a lot of effort.

Congrats to all the folks on the line and supporting functions who made this happen.

Here's to seeing 600/week by EOY.

 

[DonPedro]

I'm not sure how people got to the point of expecting more than this. This (570) is a phenomenal number and should be celebrated! Manufacturing is a complex dance and you don't get to a number like this without a lot of effort.

Congrats to all the folks on the line and supporting functions who made this happen.

Here's to seeing 600/week by EOY.

This.

I think that unwise use of VIN data led some people to expect completely unrealistic numbers. When Tesla were able to increase from 4,900 in Q1 to 5,150 in Q2, the market was very happy. So if they can do another jump to 5,400 in Q3, that should be celebrated.

I think this thread had established that we can expect something even better - probably as high as 6,000. That would truly be a blowout (especially with the expected 20% automotive GM and $101k ASP).

 

[BruceH]

I'm not sure how people got to the point of expecting more than this. This (570) is a phenomenal number and should be celebrated! Manufacturing is a complex dance and you don't get to a number like this without a lot of effort.

Congrats to all the folks on the line and supporting functions who made this happen.

Here's to seeing 600/week by EOY.

Indeed. Actually I thought this would be a solid number as I was posting the pic. Assuming an average of 525 and a fair assumption of transit cars we get a delivery of 5500 to 5800, as DaveT estimated, and I don't see the 5800 unreachable if Tesla did push it a little harder by various means. Personally I will rather push this just to make the company looks consistent in terms of profitability and growth. Given the price level of just ~10% higher than Q2 earning day close, I think TSLA is fairly valued, if not undervalued. 570 shows well on track for the guided 600 EOY, and the dramatic expansion in almost every aspect in my personal opinion is barely priced in as of today.

 

[azure1979]

If Average production rate is 105/day(525/week) in Q3, total production number of Q3 is 6720 cars.(105 x 64days = 6720 cars)
5150 cars delivered in Q2. Production rate would be 95/day(475/week) and total production number of Q2 is 6080 cars. 930 were not delivered in Q2.
4950 cars delivered in Q1. as same way, total production number of Q1 is 5184 cars. 235 were not delivered in Q1
I think 235 of Q1 is included in 5150 of Q2 and 930 was shipped to EU at end of Q2. If US of Q3 sales is same as US of Q2(5150 cars), My current estimate is 6080(930+5150) cars delivered.