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Well I first heard it right here in this very thread starting around #58 and then I went on a 1300-mile drive up to Northern CA and along the way spoke to various Tesla employees who I asked about the 700+ week figure and they pretty much confirmed that that is what the factory is up to. I wish someone who's been on a tour in September would confirm what they're seeing there. Maybe the NDAs have gotten stricter...
Honestly I think that deliveries will be between 5700 - 6700, but it is unclear since TSLA could probably achieve either figure it wants, or anything in between.
5700 would be the right thing to do for the customers: Fill up the service centers with loaners, open up a bunch of showrooms, and get as many cars in transit to Europe as soon as possible to grow demand out there (before BMW and Volkswagen does).
6700 would be the right thing to do for shareholders who put so much faith into this company. It would require stopping EU production for a couple of weeks in early September (since those cars would not have gotten delivered until Q4 anyway). This would allow a few hundred more US deliveries in Q3. Also Tesla could sell some high margin loaners if it really wanted to.
I really think that Tesla will shoot for over 6000, so 6100 is my actual target with the risk actually being to the upside and maybe even significantly. 6000 would be another milestone for Tesla.
But even with 6000 sales, we are talking close to $580 - $600 million in sales, and more than $600 million if there is still some ZEV going around. Risk is to the upside I would imagine from all of the optimistic reports we are seeing; lets hope they are true.
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BTW, I don't keep a spreadsheet with my numbers. Spreadsheets are a waste of time, since you have to keep updating them. I keep all of my information in my head; my brain is a lot more flexible than spreadsheets and can update the numbers instantly. It is all guesstimates anyway, so I keep ranges in my head that are constantly updated by the information absorbed by my brain when reading this forum.
In the end you just have to see the big picture, and the analyst estimates for the most part and specifically analyst consensus is way too low. It is either going to be another "surprise" earnings beat or the analysts are going to have to adjust their numbers up leading to rallies in TSLA. Either that or TSLA preannounces earnings.
In any case I see the stock going up.
5700 would be the right thing to do for the customers: Fill up the service centers with loaners, open up a bunch of showrooms, and get as many cars in transit to Europe as soon as possible to grow demand out there (before BMW and Volkswagen does).
6700 would be the right thing to do for shareholders who put so much faith into this company. It would require stopping EU production for a couple of weeks in early September (since those cars would not have gotten delivered until Q4 anyway). This would allow a few hundred more US deliveries in Q3. Also Tesla could sell some high margin loaners if it really wanted to.
I really think that Tesla will shoot for over 6000, so 6100 is my actual target with the risk actually being to the upside and maybe even significantly. 6000 would be another milestone for Tesla.
But even with 6000 sales, we are talking close to $580 - $600 million in sales, and more than $600 million if there is still some ZEV going around. Risk is to the upside I would imagine from all of the optimistic reports we are seeing; lets hope they are true.
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BTW, I don't keep a spreadsheet with my numbers. Spreadsheets are a waste of time, since you have to keep updating them. I keep all of my information in my head; my brain is a lot more flexible than spreadsheets and can update the numbers instantly. It is all guesstimates anyway, so I keep ranges in my head that are constantly updated by the information absorbed by my brain when reading this forum.
In the end you just have to see the big picture, and the analyst estimates for the most part and specifically analyst consensus is way too low. It is either going to be another "surprise" earnings beat or the analysts are going to have to adjust their numbers up leading to rallies in TSLA. Either that or TSLA preannounces earnings.
In any case I see the stock going up.
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Brian looks like you did what I was planning to do. That's the way to do it in IMO! I am waiting for PCH to get enough Superchargers to do the S. Cal to N.Cal trip... the scenic route.. aaahh
6,000+ deliveries likely in Q3
See the post titled "Tesla Q3 estimates likely conservative, says Northland Securities"
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...likely-conservative-says-Northland-Securities
See the post titled "Tesla Q3 estimates likely conservative, says Northland Securities"
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...likely-conservative-says-Northland-Securities
While Tesla might have stopped Euro production in mid Sept to enable more deliveries in Q3, that doesn't square with what they did in Q2. I did a factory delivery and tour on June 28. I saw completed Euro cars inside the factory, sitting under signs that said Zurich, Tilburg, and Drammen. I also saw Sig Red cars at various stages of completion on the production line, which had to be Euro cars. The DS told me they'd be doing a lot of factory deliveries that day and the next, a Saturday, due to end of Q2. Yet they didn't do that at the expense of starting Euro production.
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well this is going to pop the stock again. it'll probably go over 200 this week.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
cfOH's work on ViNs issued and current production run rate (based on rolling 2wk average I think) is some of the best production info outside Tesla.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
It's vin assignment rate, which for sure correlates with demand, but I'm less certain it correlates to production. For example I'm n EU, my car that ai confirmed on Friday will not arrive before ca January yet I fully expect to gett he vin soon, no?
No new info here. Also the market doesn't really listen to Northland.... But reiterating a $230 price target may help it get closer to $200 sooner, who knows..
I thought VIN assignment rate correlates well with production. Deliveries are less than production for a few reasons. Some cars go to service centers as loaners and some go to stores to be display and demo cars. Also some cars are in transit, produced but not yet delivered to customers. As Tesla switches to making a greater percentage of Euro cars requiring longer transit times, we might see an increasing number of produced cars in transit at the end of each quarter.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well this would assume that I won't see a VIN in months yet. We'll see. If I get one assigned in the coming weeks, then VINs only show demand and registrations, but not production. If I get the VIN assigned in ~November, then it's really production that we're measuring
kevin99
Member
I would love to know: How many of you already placed the bet on Q3? or in a more civil way and to sound less gambling, or to be politically correct, position your portfolio for Q3?
Would love to know your thinking behind the bet.
Would love to know your thinking behind the bet.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I started with a March '14 play of 180 - 220 spread to catch Q3 and Q4 surprises for a tick longer term (cost basis ca $12). Then just before the DB upgrade and breakout I got into December 180 call and with the breakout sold Dec 200 to make this very close to no risk play (cost basis $1.1). However I'm trying to figure out how best to increase the position over time. Probably will play November calls, but will pick up most if we're sideways ~2 weeks before earnings or if there's a dip below. But ideas for extending the play right now while we're tunneling in the $178-$185 region beyond selling puts (and calls? risky I think) and using that to finance Dec calls. Short term I'm short weekly puts for this week ($155, done 2.5 weeks ago at $4), for next week ($150 from ~1.5 weeks ago and $180 from earlier this week) and the week after that ($175, sold this week). So far all of the positions are nicely in the green. I do have fairly high risk for a sudden Tesla drop, but I seriously doubt that there'll be a major (i.e. to below 160 or so) drop any time soon considering what we're hearing from various sources. If there is I'll bail out of the short puts through stops if during market hours or bite the bullet if AH I guess. Then afterwards I'll load up on Jan-Mar options...
I would love to know: How many of you already placed the bet on Q3? or in a more civil way and to sound less gambling, or to be politically correct, position your portfolio for Q3?
Would love to know your thinking behind the bet.
To be polite...or PC....when we were in the 160-165 trading range I purchased a series of Dec/Jan/March 160-165 calls. When we spiked to 185, I sold them, pocketed some cash and purchased a bunch of October 185 calls to supplement the Jan 2015 ITM Leaps and Stock that is a core holding. We have disagreed about the convertible notes, but I think a big Q3 beat is the worst kept secret on the planet (unlike Q1 and Q2 when I wasn't sure analysts could find a calculator or this site if they used both hands). I'm going with Sleepyhead's list of possible news and think there will be a combination of pre-announcement of earnings, Europe, Asia, convertible notes, warrants, partnerships/battery solution, etc. that will continue the ongoing squeeze sometime in the 1st 2 weeks of October. We will get an even bigger run up pre-earnings and then possibly a sell on the news after Q3 earnings - hopefully just in time to purchase Jan 2016 options on a dip...a lot to ask, but a guy can hope.
Additional insight as to 3Q numbers....
Add on another six figures, as my $110K wire came in just under the wire.
Here is some banter I just had with my great at-HQ Delivery Specialist, Catherine:
me:
(I was trying to have my P85 delivered about 3 months ago, but the logistics of my geography are really, really daunting (as I've known for the 17 years I've been out here in Bush Alaska).
Add on another six figures, as my $110K wire came in just under the wire
.Here is some banter I just had with my great at-HQ Delivery Specialist, Catherine:
me:
HQCatherine:
(I was trying to have my P85 delivered about 3 months ago, but the logistics of my geography are really, really daunting (as I've known for the 17 years I've been out here in Bush Alaska).
if I were to guess, I'd say they hit at least 6500, possibly even 7000-7500. that guess is based on now including overseas deliveries and selling out their loaner fleet the last 2 weeks of the quarter.
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