Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

[Clprenz]

My 2 cents:
If all production was here in america and all of the cars we delivered here we would see vin 20,500 delivered here. But it isn't, I expect 7,800 produced. 2,500 in total were sent to Europe. 1,000 were delivered in Europe. Meaning that deliveries were: 5,300 US deliveries @ $94,000 ASP, and 1,000 European deliveries @ $102,000 ASP. Meaning 6,300 cars at $95,370 ASP. I expect 118 million in CAPEX. And a Margin of 26% including ZEV and a non-ZEV margin of 23% and 25.5% at the end of Q3 reached. This all means a NON-GAAP revenue of $600,831,000. NON-GAAP profit of $38,216,060. NON-GAAP EPS of .32

 

[ibcs]

Thank you for your analysis. After the last couple of days of downward misery your numbers seem spot on and we are still looking at a great Q3 ending.

 

[brianstorms]

A little data point . . .

In the past two days, two separate owners of a local building contractor company have been asking me about my Model S. Both have been to the local Tesla store (San Diego) at the mall. Both are interested in buying the car, I guess because they're liking mine and wanna get rid of their BMWs etc.

What I found interesting is that one of these guys was told at the local Tesla store that the waiting period for *test drives* is two months. That's crazy! Anyone else seeing that kind of interest around the country?

 

[texex91]

What I found interesting is that one of these guys was told at the local Tesla store that the waiting period for *test drives* is two months. That's crazy! Anyone else seeing that kind of interest around the country?

I don't understand that in CA, as they are a dealer right? They should hire more staff to take people on test drives.

In TX, Tesla has to apply to the State every time they want to have a 'driving event' (test drive weekend). The State only allows so many permits per month, which basically equates to one test drive weekend a month in Houston, Dallas and Austin. Nothing like holding back companies from selling their product.

Gotta love the TX Auto Dealers Assoc lobby--NOT!

 

[gregincal]

I don't understand that in CA, as they are a dealer right? They should hire more staff to take people on test drives.

I don't think the issue is lack of people, it's not enough test drive cars to meet demand.

 

[wcalvin]

They could add demo cars and salespeople, but why do it if production is already saturated?

Also, the sales force must have to make some judgments as to whether one is a serious prospect: are you already driving an expensive car? Are you old enough to have a salary that puts you in the running?

So they make mistakes. But if you ask repeatedly, they will likely change their first estimate.

 

[AlMc]

Appreciate the discussion about availability of test drive vehicles and wait times for test drives. The take home point for this thread is taken......Demand for car still great. Time to move on for projections like ClPrenz and others about Q3 Projections.

 

[Clprenz]

My More detailed analyst: All Information is represented in Non-GAAP form
Q3:
6750 cars sold
VIN 20,500 was last produced in Q3
7,750 produced
1,000 in transit to Europe
ASP: $96,000
Pure Automotive Revenue: $648,000,000
ZEV Revenue: $32,000,000
Developmental/Services Revenue: $5,000,000
CAPEX: $100,000,000
Vehicle Margin (Including ZEV credits): 23.5%
Developmental/Services Margin: 50%
Profit: $162,300,000
Total Profit: $62,300,000
EPS with 135,000,000 shares: $.46

My Price Target:
Price Estimates
Current P/E of 100 = $170
But factoring that wall street expects .65 this year that means the current P/E is 261
With level of surpise I expect the stock price rise but lower the P/E to about 135
P/E of 150 = $253
P/E of 140 = $236
P/E of 130 = $220
P/E of 120 = $202
P/E of 110 = $185
TSLA is Still an extreme buy

2013 Price Target of $220-$236


My wild guess? Wherever the stock is on November 4-6, it will probably jump about 10-12% and I expect it to land north of $205 ish

 

[Acmykguy]

I don't think the issue is lack of people, it's not enough test drive cars to meet demand.

Set up an online reservation system for test drives like apple does for Genius Bar. Then run them 24/7 and if the demand is there after a month great continue if not stop it. And by the way I would test drive at 2 am so I can punch it and hit the corners where the radar is not flying !

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Yeah just checked with the rep. The question mark means it is not confirmed. Then why they put it in the feed? as it is nothing new.

You have been fairly quite this qtr on projections. Reason?

 

[vin5xxx]

Nice job but where are you getting 135 million shares? Last I saw was 119m.

My More detailed analyst: All Information is represented in Non-GAAP form
Q3:
6750 cars sold
VIN 20,500 was last produced in Q3
7,750 produced
1,000 in transit to Europe
ASP: $96,000
Pure Automotive Revenue: $648,000,000
ZEV Revenue: $32,000,000
Developmental/Services Revenue: $5,000,000
CAPEX: $100,000,000
Vehicle Margin (Including ZEV credits): 23.5%
Developmental/Services Margin: 50%
Profit: $162,300,000
Total Profit: $62,300,000
EPS with 135,000,000 shares: $.46

My Price Target:
Price Estimates
Current P/E of 100 = $170
But factoring that wall street expects .65 this year that means the current P/E is 261
With level of surpise I expect the stock price rise but lower the P/E to about 135
P/E of 150 = $253
P/E of 140 = $236
P/E of 130 = $220
P/E of 120 = $202
P/E of 110 = $185
TSLA is Still an extreme buy

2013 Price Target of $220-$236


My wild guess? Wherever the stock is on November 4-6, it will probably jump about 10-12% and I expect it to land north of $205 ish

 

[sleepyhead]

Nice job but where are you getting 135 million shares? Last I saw was 119m.

You always use fully diluted shares

 

[vin5xxx]

Yahoo finance is showing 121.45m shares. How do you get to 135m?

You always use fully diluted shares

 

[Sunnyday]

My More detailed analyst: All Information is represented in Non-GAAP form
Q3:
6750 cars sold
VIN 20,500 was last produced in Q3
7,750 produced
1,000 in transit to Europe
ASP: $96,000
Pure Automotive Revenue: $648,000,000
ZEV Revenue: $32,000,000
Developmental/Services Revenue: $5,000,000
CAPEX: $100,000,000
Vehicle Margin (Including ZEV credits): 23.5%
Developmental/Services Margin: 50%
Profit: $162,300,000
Total Profit: $62,300,000
EPS with 135,000,000 shares: $.46

My Price Target:
Price Estimates
Current P/E of 100 = $170
But factoring that wall street expects .65 this year that means the current P/E is 261
With level of surpise I expect the stock price rise but lower the P/E to about 135
P/E of 150 = $253
P/E of 140 = $236
P/E of 130 = $220
P/E of 120 = $202
P/E of 110 = $185
TSLA is Still an extreme buy

2013 Price Target of $220-$236


My wild guess? Wherever the stock is on November 4-6, it will probably jump about 10-12% and I expect it to land north of $205 ish

Re: In transit cars, do they front-load shipments to Europe at the beginning of the quarter so the cars arrive and are delivered before end of quarter? Someone at a showroom told me right before the end of Q3 that their US deliveries starting in October were about to slow so they should shift production to cars destined for China. I may not have heard that correctly, but it makes sense from a business POV. Front load all the foreign shipments, and backload US shipments. This way, you pack as many deliveries into the Q as possible, and can book max sales. Tesla gets no benefit having cars on a boat at EOQ. Anyone know if this is, in fact, their modus operandi? If this is the case, then your 1,000 in transit might be less, which means more delivered which could mean more of a beat.

 

[gym7rjm]

Re: In transit cars, do they front-load shipments to Europe at the beginning of the quarter so the cars arrive and are delivered before end of quarter? Someone at a showroom told me right before the end of Q3 that their US deliveries starting in October were about to slow so they should shift production to cars destined for China. I may not have heard that correctly, but it makes sense from a business POV. Front load all the foreign shipments, and backload US shipments. This way, you pack as many deliveries into the Q as possible, and can book max sales. Tesla gets no benefit having cars on a boat at EOQ. Anyone know if this is, in fact, their modus operandi? If this is the case, then your 1,000 in transit might be less, which means more delivered which could mean more of a beat.

To my understanding, no one has confirmed this yet. However, considering their push to sell loaners last quarter, this type of strategy would not surprise me. People seem to be divided on this issue; I'm in the camp that sees this type of strategy as a positive.

 

[AlMc]

Yahoo finance is showing 121.45m shares. How do you get to 135m?

Convertible bonds outstanding may make up the difference? 135-121?

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To my understanding, no one has confirmed this yet. However, considering their push to sell loaners last quarter, this type of strategy would not surprise me. People seem to be divided on this issue; I'm in the camp that sees this type of strategy as a positive.

If you follow the VIN chart made by Craig and the 'Delivery thread' here it does seem that many US customers are getting early October VINs with late November deliveries. So, it appears that European production is heavy early Q4 so they have them delivered by end of Q4. This pattern was also present last quarter. The 6750 vehicles delivered may be a little high in my estimation but I think deliveries of at least 6400-6500 range.
I believe Elon has been fairly tight lipped about Q3 because I think the numbers and guidance will be incredible. I think CLprenz is very close on the numbers and that we will hear about a battery production deal, fabulous China and Europe reservations, and see a near production model X.

It would be great to see a Holiday surprise of Elon going Cross Country with his children in an X. (OK real wishful thinking)


Edit: And I think we have hit 10,000 model X reservations very soon (per Nigel :wink

 

[gym7rjm]

It would be great to see a Holiday surprise of Elon going Cross Country with his children in an X. (OK real wishful thinking)

Excellent prediction! I wasn't even thinking about that possibility. That would open some eyes for sure

 

[DGates]

If all production was here in america and all of the cars we delivered here we would see vin 20,500 delivered here. But it isn't,...

VIN 20,500 was last produced in Q3

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you guys are saying but my car with VIN 20554 was delivered to Vancouver on September 17th. The config was wrong so I ended up not keeping it and ordering another car but still 20554 was delivered. In the delivery thread, VIN 22981 was delivered on Sept 29th, so they certainly got much higher than 20500 before end of Q3.

 

[justdoit]

Don't think this was posted but this guy is estimating 8450 cars shipped in Q3 and expects 28k cars for the year. Also states that the 25% gross margin could have been reached in Q3.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla Sales - What You Need To Know Before Earnings - Seeking Alpha

 

[mrdoubleb]

Don't think this was posted but this guy is estimating 8450 cars shipped in Q3 and expects 28k cars for the year. Also states that the 25% gross margin could have been reached in Q3.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla Sales - What You Need To Know Before Earnings - Seeking Alpha

I hope this is just the usual low quality SA analysis and not the start of a "set up to fail" campaign. I have seen this before. Start flooding the net wit unrealisticly good numbers, so when the company posts earnings, even if it is showing record sales, the headlines will read "company did not meet Wallstreet expectations".

 

[fjm9898]

we talk about car deliveries in the EU, but it sounds like the Germans are not pleased with Telsa.

Exspecially if you know that VIN 13 dont have his car and Vin 1XXX are just delivered or in production. And believe me a few germans are really upset that they paid a nice ammount 3 - 4 years ago and treated like waste. They love the car, they even love the douzend small quality problems...but hate the service.

http://bit.ly/16Tu9I3

S-Class 4 matic full equipped : 66 000
Tesla S performance : 120 000

Thats a lot of Petrol and Service here

Not sure how many Model S are sold to Asia, but for Europe they will not sell 25% of there production. The actual deliveries are ordered over the last 4 years !!!