Yes, but that was total, not just US. Maybe Valuewalk added international without understanding that.
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Yes, but that was total, not just US. Maybe Valuewalk added international without understanding that.
Ahh yes, my mistake. I think the English on this one is poor. This is my understanding of what they are saying by using two different words to explain those numbers:
They are getting "Deliveries" of 5580 (Cars recognized in Q3 Revenue) but "Sales" of 6200 in Q3 (Meaning 6200-5580 = 620 in transit)
They are getting "Deliveries" of 5580 (Cars recognized in Q3 Revenue) but "Sales" of 6200 in Q3 (Meaning 6200-5580 = 620 in transit)
Ah yes, that is probably the mistake they are making. They think that in-transit cars is the same as international sales. If I read it that way, the article makes sense.
Reverse psychology from the bears perhaps? I'm thinking if the rumor of them ramping up production is true, these numbers won't really matter as much anyways.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Some bears/shorts have definitely been trying to push unrealistically high sales numbers to suggest that anything less is a "miss". Rather transparent, hopefully not effective.
Because someone always asks, here is where to listen to the earning report starting at 2:30 PT http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=136162 (anyone can listen, don't be afraid 
)
And here's where the PDF Q3 report will be published (manically hit refresh) http://ir.teslamotors.com/
)And here's where the PDF Q3 report will be published (manically hit refresh) http://ir.teslamotors.com/
StapleGun
Member
The time is almost here! My final predictions...
Deliveries: 5900 (I think they were over 570/wk for a few weeks in Sept.)
ASP: $100,500
GM: 20%
2014 guidance: 40,000
Wild-card: A more specific date will be given for the start of Model X production.
Deliveries: 5900 (I think they were over 570/wk for a few weeks in Sept.)
ASP: $100,500
GM: 20%
2014 guidance: 40,000
Wild-card: A more specific date will be given for the start of Model X production.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
FWIW, here is my estimate:
Deliveries 6600
ASP (k$) 102
GM ex ZEV (k$) 21,5 %
EU deliveries 1.26
Non-GAAP
Cars and CARB credits 673.200
ZEV credits 25.000
Development services 1.000
Total revenues 699.200 0
Gross profit 169.953
R&D expenses 55.000
Selling, G&A expenses 60.000
Net income 54.953
Net income/share 0,45
GAAP
Revenues (non-GAAP) 699.200
Deferred due to lease accounting 185.031
Revenues (GAAP) 514.169
Net income (non-GAAP) 54.953
Deferred profit -38.116
Stock based comp -23.000
Non-cash interest on convertibles) -1.791
Net Income (loss) (GAAP) -7.954
EPS GAAP -0,07
@Don Pedro: Thank You very much for Your Excel-sheet! Its very helpful and greatly appreciated!
Disclosure: no position (out of cash)
Deliveries 6600
ASP (k$) 102
GM ex ZEV (k$) 21,5 %
EU deliveries 1.26
Non-GAAP
Cars and CARB credits 673.200
ZEV credits 25.000
Development services 1.000
Total revenues 699.200 0
Gross profit 169.953
R&D expenses 55.000
Selling, G&A expenses 60.000
Net income 54.953
Net income/share 0,45
GAAP
Revenues (non-GAAP) 699.200
Deferred due to lease accounting 185.031
Revenues (GAAP) 514.169
Net income (non-GAAP) 54.953
Deferred profit -38.116
Stock based comp -23.000
Non-cash interest on convertibles) -1.791
Net Income (loss) (GAAP) -7.954
EPS GAAP -0,07
@Don Pedro: Thank You very much for Your Excel-sheet! Its very helpful and greatly appreciated!
Disclosure: no position (out of cash)
Last edited:
Citizen-T
Active Member
Well...i am on painkillers (backache) but i dont feel high. :-D /scnr
Granted, it surely feels like a very bullish estimate for me as well. In the end its the delivery number. I counted registrations in every country so it should be fairly accurate, but its really a test balloon. We will see shortly how this method is working out - if at all.
Good luck to every Tesla enthusiast!
Citizen-T
Active Member
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
You should not try to base any analysis off of this. Tesla spent 80% of the quarter assigning VIN's in a linear fashion and the other 20% assigning VIN's in vertical production bins. This quarter is 100% vertical production bins with backfill into the end of Q2 bins.
The bifurcation of Q2 into two different methods makes the proportion meaningless for Q3, and the backfill into Q2 might probably makes it problematic if we try to apply it to Q4. And to the extent that it works, Tesla will read these posts and change the ratio.
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I'm not sure how people got to the point of expecting more than this. This (570) is a phenomenal number and should be celebrated! Manufacturing is a complex dance and you don't get to a number like this without a lot of effort.
Congrats to all the folks on the line and supporting functions who made this happen.
Here's to seeing 600/week by EOY.
This +100
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Based on my last analysis of Europe (which I admit is getting dated), Tesla's sales in Europe are just not consistent with 5,000-7,000 cars. Outside of a few bright spots (like Norway) their underlying sales rate has been pretty terrible as of 2 months ago when I last took a good look at this. Thanks to the waiting list they might get to 5,000 for 2013, but I just don't see 7,000 as being possible.
Frankly their sales infrastructure in Europe has been pretty terrible, and their move to correct that was belated at best. I'll admit that it's possible that there has been a turnaround since I looked at this, or that my analysis was flawed in the first instance, but until I see non-pathetic delivery numbers from the 3 major markets (Germany, France and Britain) I will continue to believe that Tesla (and Elon) were simply guilty of presuming that their sales success in California (which accounts for the lions share of their U.S. sales) would automatically translate into global success.
I think that it's foolish to assume that when the Tesla brand is damaged goods in the only English speaking country in Europe (where we might have a reasonable expectation that a U.S. cultural phenomenon will immediately translate), while one of the other two major markets is home to Tesla's primary competitors who can rely on "Made in Germany" sales tactics. And the third major market (and indeed much of the rest of Europe) shares the same currency and a common market with Tesla's German competitors.
If Tesla is going to succeed in Europe, it's my opinion that it will take a sustained sales effort far beyond what they have done in the U.S., and the available evidence is that their sales infrastructure and effort is still far inferior to what they have in the U.S.
Tesla Motors, Inc. – Third Quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter
• Record 5,500 Model S deliveries
• Gross margin increased to 21% (non-GAAP) excluding ZEV credits
• Net income (non-GAAP) of $16 million
• Major WW expansion of service centers, stores and Superchargers
• Cash balance nonetheless increased by $49 million to $796 million
• Ramping production to meet growing demand in 2014
HTML: http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1193125-13-427630&CIK=1318605
PDF: http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...93125-13-427630/1318605/1193125-13-427630.pdf
• Record 5,500 Model S deliveries
• Gross margin increased to 21% (non-GAAP) excluding ZEV credits
• Net income (non-GAAP) of $16 million
• Major WW expansion of service centers, stores and Superchargers
• Cash balance nonetheless increased by $49 million to $796 million
• Ramping production to meet growing demand in 2014
HTML: http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1193125-13-427630&CIK=1318605
PDF: http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...93125-13-427630/1318605/1193125-13-427630.pdf
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
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