Q3 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

[hobbes]

We already have a thread already for the discussion (but without poll), but after last quarter´s success of predicting the actual number together (average of 11,482 in the poll, 11,532 official), I still like a poll (if any moderator feels like, it would cool to have the discussion from the other thread merged with the poll here).

Please post your prediction for Q3 deliveries as a number and also enter the poll, so we can see results graphically also.
Deadline: September 30, before Tesla announces offcial number in the beginning of October.
Note this is a public poll where everyone can see how voted for which option.

Q1 had 10,045
Q2 had 11,532 (guidance had been 10,000 to 11,000)
Q2 shareholder letter says

In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles

My estimate: 12,300 deliveries in Q3.

 

[Perfectlogic]

11,500 to 11,999, you heard it here first.

 

[pz1975]

12,157

 

[hobbes]

12,157

You have to click the poll, too! Otherwise, no price .

 

[pz1975]

No link on my iPhone.

 

[Benz]

Q3 2015 Tesla Model S deliveries: 12,345

 

[MartinAustin]

Oh, ye of little faith!

14,646

 

[pGo]

12460

 

[Tamar]

11,911

 

[Crowded Mind]

Just want to include the entirety of the Q3 guidance in case anyone assumed it was 12,000 deliveries. They actually guided for roughly 11,500 deliveries, flat to Q2.

In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles, representing a more than 60% increase from a year ago, and deliver approximately the same number of vehicles as in Q2, despite having one week of planned shutdown in Q3. This includes asmall number of Model X deliveries.

I will add my guess in another post.

 

[Ryo]

12,677

 

[hobbes]

Just want to include the entirety of the Q3 guidance in case anyone assumed it was 12,000 deliveries. They actually guided for roughly 11,500 deliveries, flat to Q2.

Thanks, actually missed that because I was scanning for another number for deliveries and didn´t see one.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

12,001!

Although the second line's up, it might've still been tuned, so they're still production constrained.

 

[RationalOptimist]

I'll be pleased w anything over 12k, but predict 11,701.

 

[uselesslogin]

12,231

 

[Ugliest1]

Since 12,345 was taken, I'll go with 11,777

 

[Buddyroe]

11,885

They timed the release of the X right with the deliveries announcement - tells me they're trying to lessen the blow of the missed deliveries number.

My number for the year is 47k at most. Just don't see how they get from ~33.5k (if my guess is close) to 50k when they're not even letting people configure the X yet (outside of the 40 or 50 signatures). That tells me that no meaning numbers of X deliveries will start until maybe November 15th. I think they will deliver 1k X's in Q4 and 12,500 S's.

PS. I probably posted way more than what was asked for.

 

[Drax7]

12,000 seems about right .

(60 working days times 200/day= 12,000 total.

 

[hershey101]

I love that everyone is completely ignoring guidance of 11,500 and throwing out numbers above 12K! I'm going with 11,564.

 

[uselesslogin]

I love that everyone is completely ignoring guidance of 11,500 and throwing out numbers above 12K! I'm going with 11,564.

Oh geez, reread the sentence in the shareholder letter. I would change mine to 11,750 but will let those with better reading comprehension win.

Here is the source of my fail:

In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles, representing a more than 60% increase from a year ago, and deliver approximately the same number of vehicles as in Q2, despite having one week of planned shutdown in Q3.

I stopped reading after "same number of vehicles" and had this in my head:

In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles, representing a more than 60% increase from a year ago, and deliver approximately the same number of vehicles.