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Q3 2015 Report & Conference Call

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Here is my take....

1)If they reduce the 50K number to below 50K, the stock will tank
2) If they keep the 50K number but admit of Model X ramp behind schedule, stock will tank
3) If they keep the 50K number and say Model X ramp to really start Late Q4 stock will hold steady or decline slightly (eg. nothing new from last quarter's call)
4) If they keep the 50K number and say Model X ramp, no problems, ramping late Q4 as stated in last quarter, stock may rise
5) If they exceed 50K number and admit no problems with Model X ramp and admit healthy Model S demand, stock will rise
6) If they keep the 50K number and say Model S demand solid, Model X demand higher than anticipated, stock will rise

anyway...my guess is on option #2. Probably I'm wrong but oh well :)

One thing I would LIKE to see, as a shareholder, is a little bit more ENERGY in the conference call. If I recall last conference call was like attending a wake. ENERGY, please. Sound UP-BEAT. Not dead-body.

That is a good list but I think it is miscalibrated. The stock has a lot of disappointment already priced in. If they are at merely the 2-3 level the stock (my opinion) will be fine or rise due to a relief rally. This is the inverse of the buy the rumor, sell the news affect. This could easily be a sell the rumor, buy the news moment. I totally expect #3 and think the stock will rise or be flat just due to a derisking of no unexpected bad news.
 
So I'm starting to think of a couple things that could potentially move the stock that have nothing to do with how many cars are being delivered:
-Not sure how many of you recall the comment that Elon made regarding European carmakers partnering with Tesla. He mentioned that he's looking forward to making this announcement soon. My gut says it has something to do with BMW and/or Volvo jumping on the supercharger train.
-People may be VASTLY underestimating the impact of Tesla Energy on a go-forward basis - cash flow generation could potentially be one of Tesla's strengths as a company, a big opposite vs. most bear's arguments
-Recent rumor of SCTY going private - may be step 1 of the Elon holding company as Citizen-T alluded to in the short term thread.

Curious to hear everyone else's opinions.
 
So I'm starting to think of a couple things that could potentially move the stock that have nothing to do with how many cars are being delivered:
-Not sure how many of you recall the comment that Elon made regarding European carmakers partnering with Tesla. He mentioned that he's looking forward to making this announcement soon. My gut says it has something to do with BMW and/or Volvo jumping on the supercharger train.
-People may be VASTLY underestimating the impact of Tesla Energy on a go-forward basis - cash flow generation could potentially be one of Tesla's strengths as a company, a big opposite vs. most bear's arguments
-Recent rumor of SCTY going private - may be step 1 of the Elon holding company as Citizen-T alluded to in the short term thread.

Curious to hear everyone else's opinions.
NOT BMW -- Elon specifically said in the German dialog that the talks about SuC partnering was with a European but not a German company.
 
That is a good list but I think it is miscalibrated. The stock has a lot of disappointment already priced in. If they are at merely the 2-3 level the stock (my opinion) will be fine or rise due to a relief rally. This is the inverse of the buy the rumor, sell the news affect. This could easily be a sell the rumor, buy the news moment. I totally expect #3 and think the stock will rise or be flat just due to a derisking of no unexpected bad news.

The explanation for the delay in the Model X launch will likely determine the stock movement after the earnings report. If the problem(s) have been fixed and production has resumed, then the impact on the stock price will be minimal. If the delay in Model X is to continue with no set schedule for production and delivery, then "look out below." The stock price badly needs significant X deliveries.
 
TSLA Financial History by Quarter

Not completely done with this yet, but I figured I'd share what I compiled before we head into 4 PM.

TSLA Progress.JPG


The main thing I want to point out here is what I highlighted in Orange and that is the Net Income (loss) if I were to remove the effects of R&D. This was extremely important to me because it helps to understand the product cycle and impact on R&D spend. If Tesla were to stop spending on R&D, it wold be profitable. As it stands R&D has been floating at about 15-20% of Tesla's revenues which I don't think investors want to stop seeing-- so we're going to see another ridiculous set of headlines that say Tesla continues to lose money... but they "lose money" to usher in the next wave of growth and build their technology advantage... keep this in mind tonight.

More importantly, we see that what happens with a steep spend in R&D in that it usually materializes into product announcement about 1-2 Quarters after. We're seeing that R&D fluctuates quite widely throughout time and gets steeper starting in Q114 which in my mind is when Model X development started. Then in Q414 I think that's when Tesla Energy product development was in its "heavy cycle" of spending. I think R&D will stabilize as we head into Model 3 because most of the groundwork is already there (namely the front motor). Also notice that the quarter where there was a "surprise" profit was really when Tesla slowed their R&D spending significantly and focused on manufacturing efficiency.

So extrapolate what you guys want with the figures, but I hope to continue to put the puzzle pieces together as time goes on.

And if somebody could give me the figures for deliveries + production for my missing quarters please do, for some reason I am having difficulty finding them.
 
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Not completely done with this yet, but I figured I'd share what I compiled before we head into 4 PM.

View attachment 99949

The main thing I want to point out here is what I highlighted in Orange and that is the Net Income (loss) if I were to remove the effects of R&D. This was extremely important to me because it helps to understand the product cycle and impact on R&D spend. If Tesla were to stop spending on R&D, it wold be profitable. As it stands R&D has been floating at about 15-20% of Tesla's revenues which I don't think investors want to stop seeing-- so we're going to see another ridiculous set of headlines that say Tesla continues to lose money... but they "lose money" to usher in the next wave of growth and build their technology advantage... keep this in mind tonight.

More importantly, we see that what happens with a steep spend in R&D in that it usually materializes into product announcement about 1-2 Quarters after. We're seeing that R&D fluctuates quite widely throughout time and gets steeper starting in Q114 which in my mind is when Model X development started. Then in Q414 I think that's when Tesla Energy product development was in its "heavy cycle" of spending. I think R&D will stabilize as we head into Model 3 because most of the groundwork is already there (namely the front motor). Also notice that the quarter where there was a "surprise" profit was really when Tesla slowed their R&D spending significantly and focused on manufacturing efficiency.

So extrapolate what you guys want with the figures, but I hope to continue to put the puzzle pieces together as time goes on.

And if somebody could give me the figures for deliveries + production for my missing quarters please do, for some reason I am having difficulty finding them.
May be just me, but works like a small picture for me, so you may want to attach the spreadsheet so we can look at it in proper size.

Anyway, sounds like a very interesting analysis, but I would also add the Supercharger, Service Center, Store network is also discretionary like R&D. I mean sure, like R&D they need it to go forward, but if they decided they will only build 50 instead of 200 Superchargers or open 10 instead of 50 stores per year, they could also show profit.

I guess what I am saying is, Tesla has one of the highest gross profits on the cars they build in the industry so they could show profit if that was their strategy. They just decided to go full plaid into investing in their future (and thank God for that).

---
update: never mind, if I download the picture and open it up I can blow it up to a decent size.
 
-People may be VASTLY underestimating the impact of Tesla Energy on a go-forward basis - cash flow generation could potentially be one of Tesla's strengths as a company, a big opposite vs. most bear's arguments

This is the future play they may talk up. However, I wouldn't put odds on hearing about any surprise ~100MWh commitments. More like whooping up a future, in GWh. The problem I have is it may be too soon to support the share price.
 
The official Q3 Call drinking game rules.

Take one drink for any of the following topics:
-Model 3 unveil date
-Model X ramp
-Becoming cash flow positive
-Cars delivered in 2015
-Gigafactory progress and/or unveiling

Take two drinks for any of the following
-Powerwall/powerpack sales
-Stock price this year
-CR recommendation being pulled

Take three drinks for any of the following
-Demand slowdown
-Model X cannibalizing Model S
-Referral program performance and if it's stopping/continuing

Finish drink for any of the following:
-SolarCity brought up at any point
-Competitors catching up to Tesla
-CFO replacement

- - - Updated - - -

Can anyone post the link?
 
The official Q3 Call drinking game rules.

Take one drink for any of the following topics:
-Model 3 unveil date
-Model X ramp
-Becoming cash flow positive
-Cars delivered in 2015
-Gigafactory progress and/or unveiling

Take two drinks for any of the following
-Powerwall/powerpack sales
-Stock price this year
-CR recommendation being pulled

Take three drinks for any of the following
-Demand slowdown
-Model X cannibalizing Model S
-Referral program performance and if it's stopping/continuing

Finish drink for any of the following:
-SolarCity brought up at any point
-Competitors catching up to Tesla
-CFO replacement

- - - Updated - - -

Can anyone post the link?

haha. love it!

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/732606071x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
 
I wonder if because tesla has such high brand loyalty (most people who own one would buy another) and because of the expense of repairs (the are totalled very easily) autopilot is actually going to lose the company money by preventing minor but expensive accidents that would have resulted in a new purchase.
 
Guidance is now 50-52k cars for fiscal 2015 which is great.
Rumours of Model X seat production being brought in house is confirmed. Gigafactory is now producing PowerWall and Powerpack batteries (not cells). Cell production is to start by mid 2016.
Model 3 is still on track for reveal in late March 2016.

Decent news all around.
 
I wonder if because tesla has such high brand loyalty (most people who own one would buy another) and because of the expense of repairs (the are totalled very easily) autopilot is actually going to lose the company money by preventing minor but expensive accidents that would have resulted in a new purchase.

This occurred to me as well, but will probably be more than offset by people buying who want a car that doesn't crash.
 
CPO inventory down 17% sequentially while requests for test drives are up due to interest in autopilot. It sounds like they could up the trade in value to facilitate more upgrades to AP and more overall sales.

This is very good news on the Model S demand front.