I know there are threads already on Q3 projections of everything from EPS to ASP to Revenue to R&D to Zev Credits and beyond. I would like to have a discussion purely on the number of deliveries in Q3, based on published data. Not interested in margins or revenues or anything else. Lets just nail down an absolute max, min and best estimate on delivery volume. So how many cars were delivered in Q3? The current estimates are all over the map because they are being extrapolated from production rates. Why not just use Autodata as a base for the minimum? Is there an error in doing so? (Credit goes to MAUKUZ. I changed the number for US in Aug and Sept to those from Autodata with the new sources. http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19907-Q3-2013-results-projections-and-expectations/page36?p=472607&viewfull=1#post472607) Tesla Reg. by Country JulyAugustSeptember Sum Source Norway0185616 80116http://insideevs.com/august-sets-electric-vehicle-sales-record http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112Germany01442 56 http://www.tff-forum.de/viewtopic.php?p=14306#p14306 Netherlands25170 177 http://www.raivereniging.nl/markt-informatie/statistieken/verkoopstatistieken.aspx Austria 214 16 http://www.statistik.at/web_de/static/kfz-neuzulassungen_jaenner_bis_september_2013_070001.pdf Switzerland 4266 108 http://insideevs.com/in-switzerland-tesla-model-s-outsells-all-other-plug-in-vehicles-combined/ Belgium 650 56 http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19907-Q3-2013-results-projections-and-expectations?p=459040&viewfull=1#post459040Sweden 2 2 TMC France 1 1 http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/12639-EU-finalize-and-deliveries?p=449098&viewfull=1#post449098Denmark 142 43 http://www.bilimp.dk/press/content.asp?bilag=175 USA147019501950 5370 Detroit Free Press www.freep.com http://www.freep.com/interactive/article/20130903/BUSINESS01/309030164/auto-sales-august-ford-gmhttp://www.freep.com/article/20131001/BUSINESS0103/310010057/Canada435555 153 www.hybridcars.com Q3 Deliveries:6783 View attachment 131021_Tesla_car registrations_Q3.xlsx - - - Updated - - - Deliveries are the biggest unknown in my opinion. I'm not concerned about margin, we were strongly guided to success on the last call. I am not worried about Zev credits, there is no real way of knowing what to expect. I am not worried about ASP, I can comfortably assume it is the same as Q2 or up based on EU sigs, P85+, and new pricey options. My question is simple: Can we accurately calculate a range for deliveries based on published information? Leave your "gut feelings" at the door.... - - - Updated - - - I think production rates are a poor predictor of deliveries first and foremeost because they assume a set number of operating days at the factory. We don't know if all weeks were 5 days or some were more. I think the "weekly rate" is based on a 5 day week (~490 at start and ~570 at end). Who's to say they didn't put in a few 6 or 7 day weeks at that same rate? That's why I think they are better off left out of the calculations.