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Q3 Delivery Calcuations

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by RobotGrease, Oct 30, 2013.

  1. RobotGrease

    RobotGrease Member

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    #1 RobotGrease, Oct 30, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2013
    I know there are threads already on Q3 projections of everything from EPS to ASP to Revenue to R&D to Zev Credits and beyond.

    I would like to have a discussion purely on the number of deliveries in Q3, based on published data. Not interested in margins or revenues or anything else. Lets just nail down an absolute max, min and best estimate on delivery volume.

    So how many cars were delivered in Q3?

    The current estimates are all over the map because they are being extrapolated from production rates. Why not just use Autodata as a base for the minimum? Is there an error in doing so?

    (Credit goes to MAUKUZ. I changed the number for US in Aug and Sept to those from Autodata with the new sources.
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19907-Q3-2013-results-projections-and-expectations/page36?p=472607&viewfull=1#post472607
    )

    Tesla Reg. by Country































    JulyAugustSeptember
    Sum
    Source








    Norway0185616
    80116http://insideevs.com/august-sets-electric-vehicle-sales-record
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112
    Germany01442
    56
    http://www.tff-forum.de/viewtopic.php?p=14306#p14306




    Netherlands25170
    177
    http://www.raivereniging.nl/markt-informatie/statistieken/verkoopstatistieken.aspx


    Austria
    214
    16
    http://www.statistik.at/web_de/static/kfz-neuzulassungen_jaenner_bis_september_2013_070001.pdf

    Switzerland
    4266
    108
    http://insideevs.com/in-switzerland-tesla-model-s-outsells-all-other-plug-in-vehicles-combined/

    Belgium
    650
    56
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19907-Q3-2013-results-projections-and-expectations?p=459040&viewfull=1#post459040
    Sweden
    2

    2
    TMC








    France

    1
    1
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/12639-EU-finalize-and-deliveries?p=449098&viewfull=1#post449098
    Denmark
    142
    43
    http://www.bilimp.dk/press/content.asp?bilag=175




    USA147019501950
    5370
    Detroit Free Press www.freep.com
    http://www.freep.com/interactive/article/20130903/BUSINESS01/309030164/auto-sales-august-ford-gmhttp://www.freep.com/article/20131001/BUSINESS0103/310010057/
    Canada435555
    153
    www.hybridcars.com




























    Q3 Deliveries:6783










    View attachment 131021_Tesla_car registrations_Q3.xlsx

    - - - Updated - - -

    Deliveries are the biggest unknown in my opinion. I'm not concerned about margin, we were strongly guided to success on the last call. I am not worried about Zev credits, there is no real way of knowing what to expect. I am not worried about ASP, I can comfortably assume it is the same as Q2 or up based on EU sigs, P85+, and new pricey options.

    My question is simple: Can we accurately calculate a range for deliveries based on published information? Leave your "gut feelings" at the door....

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think production rates are a poor predictor of deliveries first and foremeost because they assume a set number of operating days at the factory. We don't know if all weeks were 5 days or some were more. I think the "weekly rate" is based on a 5 day week (~490 at start and ~570 at end). Who's to say they didn't put in a few 6 or 7 day weeks at that same rate? That's why I think they are better off left out of the calculations.
     
  2. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    If we are considering, people disclosing their VIN and celebrating when their car is delivered on theses forums, as 'published data' then my estimate is 7131 based on my collection of data detailed on the below post I made last week.

    Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations - Page 43
     
  3. pfq1982

    pfq1982 Member

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    US delivery data is bad, don't rely on it. This has already been proven in previous quarters. Autodata doesn't appear to pull registration data. Not really sure what they do to gin up their estimates.
     
  4. RobotGrease

    RobotGrease Member

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    I appreciate the work you put in, but I believe that VINs, like production rates, cannot be accurately used to calculate deliveries. We do not have all the information needed to properly tie VINs to actual deliveries. There are too many unknowns with VINs. I think VIN assignment, in Craig's case, are a decent indicator of reservation rates. But again, thanks for the efforts.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I thought we found previously that Autodata was bad because it was always low? We discussed that this was due to it specifically being tied to registrations pulled and that some of the data was delayed. That's why I was using it as a base or minimum. Can you show me discussions pointing otherwise?
     
  5. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    RobotGrease,
    i agree with you 100% that VINs are not accurate indicators....however, that is precisely why I did this analysis. I wanted to figure out HOW inaccurate they were for Q2 deliveries and then take that number and apply it to the same Q3 VIN measurements.

    If you read closely 83.9% was this magic number I calculated from Q2 (I called it the PROPORTION number) since we know 5150 were delivered in Q2. I used the same equation and simple algebra WITH the 83.9% number for Q3 VIN measurements and solved the equation to get 7131 deliveries in Q3.

    However, I don't have a ton of data points that i used so I am guessing it could be +/- 400 cars from that number based on the true PROPORTION being +/- 5% from my 83.9% calculation.
    (the "homework" comment at the bottom of the post details how we might be able to get more data points to be more confident in this PROPORTION number,maybe with a few more it could be +/- 2 0r 3%)
     
  6. RobotGrease

    RobotGrease Member

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    I appologize, I admit I didnt read the whole post. Thanks for pointing this out, I now understand what you did. Its a great exercise, but I dont think its a very accurate method to predict Q3 deliveries. Besides the assumptions you stated at the end, there are several more in addition to them that lead me to this conclusion. At the end of the day, its another extrapolation.

    Again, thanks, I really appreciate the intelligent conversation.

    So, back to deliveries. Can we rely on Autodata as a minimum? do we have any other delivery info?
     
  7. marvinat0rz

    marvinat0rz Member

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    The VINs are great for estmating reservation rates, though, right? Because that is also a big deal in all this. The reservation rate is really good.
     
  8. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    My thought is just under 5900
     
  9. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    To me the key is where is Autodata getting their data. It could be a rough estimate based on who knows. If we're going to RELY on Autodata (or Wards or any other source) we should be able to confirm their original data source and its accuracy. If we're not able to do this, then it becomes a very weak data point and shouldn't be used to base estimated deliveries with.

    The most accurate and reliable data points we have currently IMO is weekly factory production numbers.
     
  10. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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    For what it's worth I emailed Wards last month and asked where their data for Tesla was from. I received a response stating "Tesla reports sales data off an on monthly. Having this data allows us to put together estimates and forecast." It's quite possible this is a canned response whenever someone asks about any of their sources though.
     
  11. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    They don't tell you. It's their secret sauce.

    Why Autodata Solutions | Autodata Solutions
    :::: Motor Intelligence :::: powered by autodata corporation
     
  12. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    Thanks for the links. I'll say their numbers for Tesla deliveries are inaccurate. We've got rough weekly production numbers, and Autodata numbers aren't in line. If I had to choose between weekly production numbers and Autodata's numbers to base Q3 estimates off of, I'd go with weekly production numbers 100 out of 100 times.
     
  13. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    Yes. Let us not over-inflate expectations and set Tesla up for inescapable disappointment.

    Production

    I have already shown that, assuming that production does not go down and that Tesla are not lying, the "absurd maximum" production in Q3 is 6,480. The realistic range is 5,921 to 6,225, with 6,051 as the most probable figure.

    Then you have to subtract increase in inventories of cars - in transit, loaners and show room cars.

    Cars-in-transit
    The increase in this inventory is the difference between cars-in-transit at the start of Q3 and at the end. We know there were cars in transit at the start, since in June people reported lines of cars marked with various EU destinations (Drammen, Tilburg etc.). However, the number was limited. The transit takes approx. 50 days, so all in-transit cars should be delivered by approx. Aug 20. The first deliveries in Oslo were on August 7, and the first in Tilburg were on August 14, with the next deliveries following slowly. Of total EU registrations in August (257), most occurred at the end of the month. I think 125 is a best estimate for cars in transit to Europe at the start of the quarter.

    The registrations in Norway dropped from approx. 150 per week in September to around 25 per week in October (with thousands of Norwegians still waiting for their Model S). We have a report from Switzerland of 111 registrations there during October, and if that is correct I think it would be reasonable to expect 150 in the Netherlands (even though these sound like high numbers). These three countries make up most of European deliveries at present. I will therefore assume the following in-transit cars at the end of the quarter:
    - Norway: 100 (kept low based on almost zero delivery reports on Norwegian forum)
    - Switzerland: 125
    - Netherlands: 175
    - Others: 75
    Total: 475

    This means that the increase in cars in transit can be estimated at 350.

    I would say the starting number has an uncertainty of +50/-75, and that the ending number has an uncertainty of +150/-200. That means that the possible range for this figure is 100-575.

    Loaners

    There are currently 33 service centers world wide. Most of them had some loaners at the start of the quarter, and the question is whether they got more now. I think a reasonable range is to assume they got 1-3 more each (on average). That means an increase in loaners of 33-99. Let's call that 65 (+/-35).

    Show room cars

    There are currently 50 show rooms world wide. I don't know how many of there were new in Q3, but the guidance has been to open 6 new show rooms per quarter in 2013. So let us assume they have provided 5-10 cars to each of 6 new show rooms, plus 0-1 extra car for each of the 44 others. That means 65 (+/-35) net new showroom cars.


    CONCLUSION

    Production: 5921 to 6225 (6051 expected)
    In-transit cars: -100 to -575 (-350 expected)
    Loaners: -35 to -100 (-65 expected)
    Show room cars: -35 to -100 (-65 expected)
    ------------------------------------------
    Deliveries: 5,146 to 6,055 (5,571 expected)


     
  14. sub

    sub Member

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    Don, are you accounting for loaners sold that were produced in previous quarters? This would not be a significant number either way, just a thought. I ask this because i'm looking at buying a loaner myself and I have seen the list of available loaners for purchase, there are quite a few. The vins of the few i'm interested range in vin number from 92-- to 12,7--.
     
  15. RobotGrease

    RobotGrease Member

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    On the Autodata front, I would be curious to get more confirmation that the data is not tied to registrations. At this point, I'm really unsure. If anyone has more clarity on this, please share. I know many people in the past stated with confidence on here that it was registration data specifically.

    OK, so i know i said forget production and production rates as a method, but I think I might have stumbled across an oversight:

    We all know that the stated goal for 2013 was 20,000 cars, which was also stated as 400 per week or 80 per day (Will need to find a source like Elon or an ER to confirm the weekly and daily numbers were official). This confirms that Tesla's rough forecasting was based off of a 5 day work week (400/80=5) and a 50 week year (20,000/400=50). Now, what I think has happened is that production has continued to be reported on this 5day based rate. In other words, Tesla has continued to track and guide their production based on a 5 day work week. They are doing this for consistency of course because working the weekend doesn't mean they have improved production rate and would be a false increase in the metric. However, I believe the gap in our understanding arises when we assume they always actually work a 5day week. I know they have put in 6 and 7 day weeks in the past. So the important thing is to determine a daily rate and then use that as a starting point. We, TMC, have been looking at the weekly rate and assuming its the weekly production number, which is the problem. If we assume they are reporting production rate based on a 5 day week but work a couple 6 day weeks here or there (or for a quarterly push), the picture of actual production for the Q changes drastically. Take a look below. I have assume that they didnt work the first week of the quarter, as reported here. My other assumptions are detailed below as well. Look what happens to total production, and then consequently deliveries, when we assume they worked just three 6day weeks. This is just hypothetical, but it shows the flaw in our previous calculations and that a higher actual production is very possible.


    week #2728293031323334353637383940
    days in the wk67777777777772
    days worked05555555556662
    weekly rate490496502508514520526532538544550556562568
    daily rate9899.2100.4101.6102.8104105.2106.4107.6108.8110111.2112.4113.6
    weekly prod0496502508514520526532538544660667.2674.4227.2






























    Q3 prod. total 6909












    Q2 prod. deliv +300












    enroute in US -400












    on boat to EU+ -400












    loaners -100












    Delivery Total6309













    Can others confirm or refute this?
     
  16. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    Don, regarding # cars in transit to Europe at beginning of Q3, I think your estimate might be high. I think they might have started some Europe cars at the end of June but not much and they weren't finished. They started making/finishing EU cars in the beginning of July (after their week vacation first week of July). I would imagine Tesla started shipping Europe cars in mid-July. They might have sent a few earlier to showrooms, etc. So, my guess is that they really didn't have any Europe cars in transit at the beginning of Q3.

    Regarding your # cars in transit to Europe at the end of Q3, those numbers sound reasonable.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You're assuming that the bottleneck is the factory, but it's not. The bottleneck is the suppliers (as mentioned and highlighted by Elon at Q2 ER CC). So, even if TSLA wanted to work the factory 7 days a week, they couldn't because they don't have the necessary # parts for the car, meaning a few suppliers just can't supply more than the current weekly production rate. The main reason why production is currently only at 570/week is because that's the MAX rate which a few suppliers can supply their parts to Tesla. I think it's unreasonable to assume (or predict) that Tesla could have boosted production by +100 over that rate during the final few weeks of Q3. That would assume the capacity-limited suppliers found some magical way to boost their production for those few weeks, which in all likelihood didn't and couldn't happen.
     
  17. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    I would just like to add that in the showroom in Bergen they only have one or two cars. One of them is an old California-type. In Denmark they only had one, and since they had no waiting list on test-drives, I doubt they have got more cars this quarter.
     
  18. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    That's easy! Pictures or it didn't happen. :biggrin:
     
  19. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    It is actually quite hard to know. I've reviewed the reports at the time. They are very conflicting. On the one hand:
    • On June 19 a Norwegian customer reported getting an email from Tesla including the following text: "We have the pleasure of informing you that the European production has now commenced.".
    • On July 8, another customer reported that a Norwegian sales rep said that EU sigs had already been produced (keep in mind that July 8 was the first production day in Q3, so if this is true they must have been produced in Q2).
    • June 21, one Norwegian reported: "Got a nice fall from a Tesla rep this week : your Tesla (european model Sig Perf Plus) is being built transport will by train to the east cost and then by boat to Drammen, Norway. Cars should arrive late July and first delivery soon therafter."
    • On June 26, a TMC user reported that the Zurich store told him EU production had started.
    • On June 28, a TMC member reported the following from a factory visit: "I did a factory tour on 6/28 and saw some finished europeans. I knew this because they said signature and I asked. Guide confirmed they have started and are doing final tweeking. He did mention that the front hood (or do you say bonnet) was too stiff and eu has some pedestrian safety issues regarding hood strength.".
    • Another TMC member reported from a factory visit on June 30: "The factory did 600 cars the last week of June. I got delivery Friday, June 30 th at the factory with the tour. The first week of July they will be off to retool, reconfigure and recalibrate equipment. This week they are doing European signature series so they will be painting Signature Red again as we saw during the tour. They build the European cars, then remove the battery and wheels so they can be "assembled" in Europe for a lower import duty."
    • This video from July 11 states that cars to the EU are "on the water as we speak" (around 1:32) - any cars on the water at that time would have to have been produced in June
    • Doug (TMC) reported seeing a finished EU car on June 29
    • Multiple customers reported seeing EU specced cars in the Oslo store on July 4 [must have been produced in June - air freight to Oslo?]
    • Most convincing to me is this evidence from CalDreaming: "I did a factory delivery and tour on June 28. I saw completed Euro cars inside the factory, sitting under signs that said Zurich, Tilburg, and Drammen. I also saw Sig Red cars at various stages of completion on the production line, which had to be Euro cars. The DS told me they'd be doing a lot of factory deliveries that day and the next, a Saturday, due to end of Q2. Yet they didn't do that at the expense of starting Euro production."

    On the other hand:

    I think it is pretty clear that a number of EU cars were finished by the end of June. CalDreaming's post does not sounds like "10 or 20" cars, but certainly could be consistent with the 50-175 range that I put on this. I don't know if we can pinpoint the exact number with any more accuracy than that...

    - - - Updated - - -

    What I look for is increase in stocks - i.e. are there more loaners in stock at the end of the quarter than at the start of it. As you can see from my discussion, I have no real data on this. I am assuming an increase, because there have been reports that top management has promised an increase and because the stocks were reportedly quite low this summer.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If this representative, then I would guess that they have not added any show room cars to existing show rooms, and 1-2 to new ones. In that case, the net increase is 10, not 70. This would increase my estimate of deliveries by 60.
     
  20. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    Don, first thanks for putting in the work to link to all the data points you mentioned. You’re adding a lot of value and it’s appreciated.

    Here’s my take on EU production at end of Q2. I think Tesla had intended to start production and ship cars to Europe by the end of Q2, but they decided to delay their plans. It’s possible that Tesla management actually delayed the plans a few weeks prior to the end of Q2 so that up until then they had expected to ship cars to Europe in June. This is why some people in Europe had heard their cars were going to be shipped end of June (and arrive late July). However, it’s pretty clear that almost no cars (or very, very few) were shipped before end of June. My guess is that less than 30 cars (probably 15-20) were actually shipped by end of Q2 and most of those were store and loaner cars.

    You mentioned on June 21, a Norwegian wrote: "Got a nice fall from a Tesla rep this week : your Tesla (european model Sig Perf Plus) is being built transport will by train to the east cost and then by boat to Drammen, Norway. Cars should arrive late July and first delivery soon therafter.” (Norwegian deliveries | Forums | Tesla Motors)

    However, the same user (Hugo) on July 12 wrote: “more delays :-( When Tesla called on June 19 they said delivery would be late July/Aug 1 (week 31). When asking yesterday i was told it was likely to get my VIN 14910 in week 32 or 33.... Very unfortunate - it must be the 5th or 6th delay info i get…” (Norwegian deliveries | Forums | Tesla Motors).

    And then Hugo wrote on August 18: “Finally i have a firm delivery time, tuesday 27 aug at 2 pm - in Stavanger :) Red signature fully loaded....Delivered by Tesla people coming with the car.” (Norwegian deliveries | Forums | Tesla Motors)

    And then on August 19, Hugo wrote: “Great day in Stavanger yesterday - 5 cars delivered, including my fully loaded Signature Performance Plus! More surprisingly, the car delivered just in from of me was a regualar Model S !
    Had a fun evening driving around last night and the Tesla grin is still on :)” (Norwegian deliveries | Forums | Tesla Motors).

    So, he had been told to expect delivery on his EU Sig #4 in late-July but ended up getting it late August. It makes sense that Tesla actually finished and shipped his car 2nd week of July. I think they can get a car to Europe in 30 days, and then depending on destination it would take another 5-15 days to reach the customer.

    You also link to some people seeing finished EU cars in the factory at the end of June. But it’s unclear if those cars were completely finished or not. They could have been lacking final touches. Also, it’s unclear how many Tesla had begun production on before the end of Q2. I’m estimating that they had begun production on 50-100 EU cars in Q2. They finished and shipped about 15-25 cars to Europe (to showrooms) before end of Q2. Then, the other 50-70 cars they started they didn’t finish and left to finish at beginning of Q3. The 50-70 were probably very close to finished (enough to convince factory tour visitors to think they were finished). Those 50-70 cars were likely finished in the 2nd week of July and then shipped. 2nd week of July is also when they started to ramp European production as well.

    Finally, if Tesla actually shipped cars to customers in EU (not just to showrooms) by end of Q2, then we would have reports of customers (ie., Norway) receiving their cars in July. I haven't seen anything of actual customers receiving their EU cars in July. This makes me think the only cars they shipped in Q2 to EU were showroom/demo cars and a very limited number of them.
     

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