Q3 Delivery Calcuations

[DonPedro]

DaveT:

I won't dismiss your interpretation, because it is plausible and could be correct.

I feel that the only conclusion we can draw from this is that rather than 50-175, the range should be 30-175. There is simply no evidence to narrow the range down more than that. Note that EU deliveries take 50 days, not 30 (this has been repeatedly confirmed at the Norwegian forum, and it is the case for me -> production complete around Oct 12, delivery Dec 3).

There is one thing, though: They key support for your hypothesis is the logic that "if they were optimizing Q2, then they would have done it properly". However, the same logic applies to Q3. As mentioned, the Norwegian weekly deliveries fell by more than 80% overnight once September finished. Coincidence? I don't think so. In that case, if you believe that cars-in-transit was low at the end of Q2, you should also believe the same about Q3. It seems, however, that you want to pick the low number for Q2 and not for Q3. Thus I think you end up a tad high on the net correction.

 

[fjm9898]

Nice Work Don. I am so Thankful.
To on to you and DaveT. I think in a nutshell Dave is getting that some may have been produced in Q2 but not yet shipped. In my Mind its still the same thing. Being produced an basically finished (Hood change, and possibly batching of cars to save transportation fees) is still a Q2 car off the line. So i my mind it still counts for "in transit" even though it never left. So i would call it save to assume those cars we are talking about are our "in transit cars". Trick now is knowing how many there were and how many were going to customers vs. showroom/loaners. Everyone agree? I am probably repeating Dave entirely, i just wanted to break it down.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

My take is that they produced the cars, but ran into some regulatory issues (for example the same reported hood stiffness issue) that required to tweak something before they could begin deliveries. This would explain why they initially gave production in June and delivery estimates in July to their customers and then a week or two later reported delays. It probably means the cars were produced and only some component required changing. Doubt it would need full production capacity so probably the "fix" was done on the side not affecting general factory speed in July. Therefore I think we can assume that at least a couple of weeks worth of EU cars WERE in fact produced in Q2, but required tweaking before shipment.

Now it comes down to what you want to call in transit. The cars might have been in Fremont parking lot after Q2 end and only shipped in July, which would mean that they weren't in transit at end of Q2, but they would have been produced in Q2 so you might as well consider them in transit (they wouldn't show up as Q2 sales, but wouldn't reduce Q3 production).

Hope it helps.

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Heh, while I wrote you guys pretty much said the same

 

[fjm9898]

just re-reading this thread and other calcs put together but other members in other threads i think its safe to say we are looking for a beat in what the average sane analyst is thinking. DB, Andrea and that other guy, that was on CNBC wednesday, forget who he was with, all keep quoting around 5500. Our numbers have shown solid evidence from 5500-to the low 6000s. So we can assume a beat on the production numbers, but to be conservative when calculating EPS, we could use 5800 cars? ASP of 99k?

I am thinking that is a strong basis to work from. anything more then that would be a bonus and help the beat.

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GM put at 20%? Guidance raise to 21.5k?
Anything lower then 5500 people might question getting to the 21k guidance which is why i find it hard to believe any number under 5500 reported.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Tesla Reg. by Country
	July	August	September		Sum		Source
Norway	0	185	616		801	16	http://insideevs.com/august-sets-electric-vehicle-sales-record		http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112
Germany	0	14	42		56		http://www.tff-forum.de/viewtopic.php?p=14306#p14306
Netherlands	2	5	170		177		http://www.raivereniging.nl/markt-informatie/statistieken/verkoopstatistieken.aspx
Austria		2	14		16		http://www.statistik.at/web_de/static/kfz-neuzulassungen_jaenner_bis_september_2013_070001.pdf
Switzerland		42	66		108		http://insideevs.com/in-switzerland-tesla-model-s-outsells-all-other-plug-in-vehicles-combined/
Belgium		6	50		56		http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19907-Q3-2013-results-projections-and-expectations?p=459040&viewfull=1#post459040
Sweden		2			2		TMC
France			1		1		http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/12639-EU-finalize-and-deliveries?p=449098&viewfull=1#post449098
Denmark		1	42		43		http://www.bilimp.dk/press/content.asp?bilag=175
USA	1470	1950	1950		5370		Detroit Free Press www.freep.com		http://www.freep.com/interactive/article/20130903/BUSINESS01/309030164/auto-sales-august-ford-gm	http://www.freep.com/article/20131001/BUSINESS0103/310010057/
Canada	43	55	55		153		www.hybridcars.com
				Q3 Deliveries:	6783

View attachment 34323

Two friends of mine got their Model S delivered in September in Italy (but I think also other people in Italy). So please add at least 2.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

GM put at 20%? Guidance raise to 21.5k?
Anything lower then 5500 people might question getting to the 21k guidance which is why i find it hard to believe any number under 5500 reported.

Well I took the kind of worst case scenario and input the numbers to the already shared EPS calculation sheet (5800 deliveries, 20% GM, 99k ASP, 20M ZEV credits, 60M R&D costs) and arrived to $0.12 EPS. This would "beat" by $0.01 and guidance would be very important. However we know that this is really the almost absolute lowball number that can be. Doing the other extreme: 6500 deliveries, 25% GM, 102kASP, 30M ZEV, 50M R&D I get $0.71 EPS with GAAP EPS being $0.17. That I would consider the uppermost limit. The truth will be between the two I think.

For my own prediction I'd assume 6000 deliveries, 100k ASP, 21% GM, 25M ZEV and 60M R&D giving $0.26 non-GAAP and -$0.22 GAAP EPS.

 

[DaveT]

DaveT:

I won't dismiss your interpretation, because it is plausible and could be correct.

I feel that the only conclusion we can draw from this is that rather than 50-175, the range should be 30-175. There is simply no evidence to narrow the range down more than that. Note that EU deliveries take 50 days, not 30 (this has been repeatedly confirmed at the Norwegian forum, and it is the case for me -> production complete around Oct 12, delivery Dec 3).

There is one thing, though: They key support for your hypothesis is the logic that "if they were optimizing Q2, then they would have done it properly". However, the same logic applies to Q3. As mentioned, the Norwegian weekly deliveries fell by more than 80% overnight once September finished. Coincidence? I don't think so. In that case, if you believe that cars-in-transit was low at the end of Q2, you should also believe the same about Q3. It seems, however, that you want to pick the low number for Q2 and not for Q3. Thus I think you end up a tad high on the net correction.

1. I don't see any evidence that supports a high-end of 175 cars shipped to Europe in Q2. If they shipped that many, we would see customers reporting delivery in EU by end of July (or latest early-August). But I haven't come across any EU customer who's received their car by end of July. If you can find someone, please share the info/link. If there's no one who's received their EU car by end of July, I think it's safe to assume no EU customer cars were shipped by end of Q2, and those that were shipped were a limited number of showroom/demo cars.

2. # cars in transit in Q3 - the evidence is starkly different than Q2. There was definitely some EU transit cars at end of Q3, evidenced by customers actually receiving their cars in mid-October (from the EU thread). Also, as you mentioned there are reports of registrations happening in October in Norway, Sweden, etc. I think your number of 475 cars in transit at end of Q3 is reasonable because it's based on the data points that there were actual registrations happening in October in the EU, which means that these cars were in transit at the end of Q3.

Finally, I think you're misunderstanding my logic/hypothesis. What I'm saying is basically that Q2 and Q3 show starkly different data points for cars in transit to Europe. Q2 shows basically no cars in transit to Europe based on no known customers receiving their cars in July. Q3 shows that a decent number of people received their cars in October (ie., at least a few hundred) and that shows there were actual cars in transit at end of Q3.

We agree on Q3 EU transit cars. Where we disagree is with Q2 EU transit cars, which I find no evidence (but I'd love to discover some if there are) of customers receiving EU delivery in July.

 

[fjm9898]

Well I took the kind of worst case scenario and input the numbers to the already shared EPS calculation sheet (5800 deliveries, 20% GM, 99k ASP, 20M ZEV credits, 60M R&D costs) and arrived to $0.12 EPS. This would "beat" by $0.01 and guidance would be very important. However we know that this is really the almost absolute lowball number that can be. Doing the other extreme: 6500 deliveries, 25% GM, 102kASP, 30M ZEV, 50M R&D I get $0.71 EPS with GAAP EPS being $0.17. That I would consider the uppermost limit. The truth will be between the two I think.

For my own prediction I'd assume 6000 deliveries, 100k ASP, 21% GM, 25M ZEV and 60M R&D giving $0.26 non-GAAP and -$0.22 GAAP EPS.

Did you add in a couple Extra million for "other sales" to Toyota and Mercedes?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

DaveT: cars produced in Q2 should be considered in transit even if they were withheld due to needing tweaking due to regulatory issues. This would explain why they were only really shipped in July showing up as deliveries in August. They would still have been produced in Q2 and we shouldn't take the shipped to EU too literally.

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Did you add in a couple Extra million for "other sales" to Toyota and Mercedes?

Used the default, which I think was 1M.

 

[fjm9898]

We agree on Q3 EU transit cars. Where we disagree is with Q2 EU transit cars, which I find no evidence (but I'd love to discover some if there are) of customers receiving EU delivery in July.

Dave this is probably true, but Produced and sitting in the factory is still Q2 production and not realized cash wise yet. There is evidence by people seeing the cars that they were there in Q2. So even if they were not shipped in Q2 and still sitting on the factory floor in Q2, they still count as "in transit"(although they psychically were not yet) as they would be realized in Q3,

These Cars we are talking about are probably the ones on the Table that are shown in August deliveries, maybe all 250? but probably less. We dont have proof how many were sitting around and how many were for customers and for showroom/Loaners. If we had more details on just how many were seen on the factory tour at the time we would know more. Could of been 25 cars, could of been 100 and more could of joined the pile before the end of Q2.

On the high end of anyone predictions for in Transit in Q2, it cant see how it would be higher then the 250 Delivered in August.

 

[DaveT]

DaveT: cars produced in Q2 should be considered in transit even if they were withheld due to needing tweaking due to regulatory issues. This would explain why they were only really shipped in July showing up as deliveries in August. They would still have been produced in Q2 and we shouldn't take the shipped to EU too literally.

Dave this is probably true, but Produced and sitting in the factory is still Q2 production and not realized cash wise yet. There is evidence by people seeing the cars that they were there in Q2. So even if they were not shipped in Q2 and still sitting on the factory floor in Q2, they still count as "in transit"(although they psychically were not yet) as they would be realized in Q3,

These Cars we are talking about are probably the ones on the Table that shown in August deliveries, maybe all 250? but probably less. We dont have proof how many were sitting around and how many were for customers and for showroom/Loaners. If we had more details on just how many were seen on the factory tour at the time we would know more. Could of been 25 cars, could of been 100 and more could of joined the pile before the end of Q2.

Yeah it makes sense we could include these almost-finished EU cars at end of Q2 as in transit. I question how many of these almost-finished EU cars there were at end of Q2. I would estimate on the low-end because it doesn’t make much financial sense to produce a bunch of them (ie., more than 100) during Q2 and leave them hanging around your factory for long.

Revising my earlier thoughts…
- maybe 20 cars going to EU as showroom/demo cars in Q2.
- maybe 50 EU cars “almost finished” left at factory at end of Q2 (but this is an almost wild guess and probably a low number, a high number IMO would be 125)

So, I'll backtrack and say DonPedro's estimate of 125 cars in transit at end of Q2 is a reasonable number. I'd probably go with 105 cars in transit at end of Q2 (avg of 70-145).

 

[DonPedro]

Our numbers have shown solid evidence from 5500-to the low 6000s. So we can assume a beat on the production numbers, but to be conservative when calculating EPS, we could use 5800 cars? ASP of 99k?
...
Anything lower then 5500 people might question getting to the 21k guidance which is why i find it hard to believe any number under 5500 reported.

I find it hard to agree that we have "solid evidence" of being above 5500. They need to do 10,900 in Q3 and Q4 combined to reach 21k, and there is no reaon why that would not be 5,300 in Q3 and 5,600 in Q4.

And 5800 is higher than my best estimate, based on known production figures directly from Elon (and factory production screen) and not-very-pessimistic assumptions about increases in inventories.

The only thing that could move these figures significantly upwards would be if they worked weekends. And that is inconsistent with increasing GM and there is no evidence to support them doing this.

 

[fjm9898]

I am going off the table in the first post.
Granted these arent perfect either. The number there was over 6700. I then took the AutoData for the US and averaged that down to 1470 for all three months. That puts us at around 5700.
As Mario just showed us with a quick calculation on the 5800, 20% and so on i tossed out. We would only be 1 cent above the expected EPS. So if we are wrong and its only 5300. Then are are not going to beat unless ZEV credits were still up or my ASP and GM are low.

However, assuming leaner ramping of production we roughly be at Q1, to Q2 and then Q2 to Q3 that puts us at 5550 (4950-5150 and then 5150 to 5550) If that is the case then ya we are looking at a 5300 dead in the face. That is not good when the street is looking for 11cents EPS.

Nutshell, i hope your wrong about 5300.

I am already not nearly as confident of many people here for a Q3 pop and 5300 is not helping my feelings.
I have already pulled out of most of my Q3 ER plays.

 

[CalDreamin]

Dave this is probably true, but Produced and sitting in the factory is still Q2 production and not realized cash wise yet. There is evidence by people seeing the cars that they were there in Q2. So even if they were not shipped in Q2 and still sitting on the factory floor in Q2, they still count as "in transit"(although they psychically were not yet) as they would be realized in Q3,

These Cars we are talking about are probably the ones on the Table that are shown in August deliveries, maybe all 250? but probably less. We dont have proof how many were sitting around and how many were for customers and for showroom/Loaners. If we had more details on just how many were seen on the factory tour at the time we would know more. Could of been 25 cars, could of been 100 and more could of joined the pile before the end of Q2.

On the high end of anyone predictions for in Transit in Q2, it cant see how it would be higher then the 250 Delivered in August.

I took a Tesla factory tour on Friday June 28 of this year, the last working day of Q2 for production. According to the Tesla DS who walked me through my delivery, many factory deliveries like mine were scheduled for June 28 and Saturday June 29, an end of Q2 push.

During my factory tour I saw several Sig Red MS at various stages of completion on the production line. Especially under the factory lights, Sig Red is unmistakable and does not look like MC Red. Sig Red MS on the line were clearly Euro production. There were probably other Euro MS on the line in less conspicuous colors.

I also saw a number of completed MS parked inside the factory under signs that said Zurich, Drammen, and Tilburg.

IIRC our factory tour guide said it takes 5 days for an MS to move from start to end of the production line. That's a week of production, about 500-550 cars were on the production line at end of Q2.

Unfortunately, I wasn't looking for other telltale signs, such as parking sensors which at that time were only on Euro-bound MS. So the number of Euro MS I saw in the factory on June 28 could have been as few as a dozen or as much as hundreds. Sorry, not a lot of help.

 

[aznt1217]

I am going off the table in the first post.
Granted these arent perfect either. The number there was over 6700. I then took the AutoData for the US and averaged that down to 1470 for all three months. That puts us at around 5700.
As Mario just showed us with a quick calculation on the 5800, 20% and so on i tossed out. We would only be 1 cent above the expected EPS. So if we are wrong and its only 5300. Then are are not going to beat unless ZEV credits were still up or my ASP and GM are low.

However, assuming leaner ramping of production we roughly be at Q1, to Q2 and then Q2 to Q3 that puts us at 5550 (4950-5150 and then 5150 to 5550) If that is the case then ya we are looking at a 5300 dead in the face. That is not good when the street is looking for 11cents EPS.

Nutshell, i hope your wrong about 5300.

I am already not nearly as confident of many people here for a Q3 pop and 5300 is not helping my feelings.
I have already pulled out of most of my Q3 ER plays.

Where is the 11 cents consensus can you please link?

 

[Citizen-T]

Where is the 11 cents consensus can you please link?

Here you go: TSLA Analyst Estimates | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

 

[aznt1217]

Here you go: TSLA Analyst Estimates | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

Ah ok great. Thanks for that. Awfully wide range of EPS, I wonder how much of those price in things like ZEV credit impact. I thought he was referring to the whisper number.

 

[hershey101]

According to this website:
Earnings Whispers : Earnings Whisper Number for TSLA
The wisper number is $0.19, it used to be $0.17 last week I think....

 

[mrdoubleb]

I like the fact that some of you are trying to pull us back to reality - some estimates I saw on these threads of almost 7k deliveries are clearly unrealistic. Having said that, I think anything below 5.5k is overly pessismistic.

I think most of our evidence points to TM coming out of Q2 with a 500-550 a week production. EM said that in an interview once (can't find it right now, sorry), and many factory visits, like CalDreamin's above tell the same story. The "chinese screenshot" from early Q4 gave away the current production number of 570 per week. With that, it is pretty clear Q3 production was between 500-570 cars per week.

I for one think that even 500 is too low for the start of the quarter just because of the various slivers of information I read from these threads and interviews key Tesla people gave. So I personally go with "my gut feeling" of 520-570. The middle of that range is 545, that's the number I calculate with. (Actual numbers due to real life production ramp from 520 to 570 would look very different, but there is no way of knowing that unless we have a "chinese screenshot" from every week of Q3).

545 per week is 109 per day. I like calculating with days better as it accounts for holidays. If the worked all and only workdays, and we had 64 of those in California in Q3, that's 6970 cars produced. If they took the first week of quarter off, like the used to (?), we have 60 woek days, or 6540 cars produced.

I like Dave-T's esrimate of roughly 500 cars falling out due to loaners, showrooms, loaners and EU transit, so my delivery guesstimate is:

6000 to 6500 cars depending on whether they took the first week off or not.

 

[DaveT]

I think most of our evidence points to TM coming out of Q2 with a 500-550 a week production.

It's very clear that Tesla ended Q2 at BELOW 500 cars/week. The Q2 shareholder makes it very clear that they ended Q2 at slightly below 500 cars/week. They are under legal obligation to tell the truth when they reveal past numbers like this.