Q3 Delivery Calcuations

[DonPedro]

I took a Tesla factory tour on Friday June 28 of this year, the last working day of Q2 for production. According to the Tesla DS who walked me through my delivery, many factory deliveries like mine were scheduled for June 28 and Saturday June 29, an end of Q2 push.

During my factory tour I saw several Sig Red MS at various stages of completion on the production line. Especially under the factory lights, Sig Red is unmistakable and does not look like MC Red. Sig Red MS on the line were clearly Euro production. There were probably other Euro MS on the line in less conspicuous colors.

I also saw a number of completed MS parked inside the factory under signs that said Zurich, Drammen, and Tilburg.

IIRC our factory tour guide said it takes 5 days for an MS to move from start to end of the production line. That's a week of production, about 500-550 cars were on the production line at end of Q2.

Unfortunately, I wasn't looking for other telltale signs, such as parking sensors which at that time were only on Euro-bound MS. So the number of Euro MS I saw in the factory on June 28 could have been as few as a dozen or as much as hundreds. Sorry, not a lot of help.

Could you estimate an approximate number of cars under these signs? Are we talking 10? 30? 100? More?

 

[mrdoubleb]

It's very clear that Tesla ended Q2 at BELOW 500 cars/week. The Q2 shareholder makes it very clear that they ended Q2 at slightly below 500 cars/week. They are under legal obligation to tell the truth when they reveal past numbers like this.

Ok, I dug up what I remembered as an Elon interview... actually it was Gilbert Passin. In this video, posted on July 18th on Bloomberg, he says (at 20 seconds into the interview): "We are now actually at 500 cars a week".

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/insi...odel-s-3HL3i~FITU~Pg4sRyXYxxg.html?cmpid=yhoo

Now that statement does not exclude the possibility of producing less than 500 for the first 2 weeks of the month, so you are right, they could have been in the high 400s for a brief period (maybe 1 week if they took the first week off?).

In any case, we'll be smarter in a few days, but personally I think 6000 deliveries (give or take 200) may be more realistic than 5300-5500.

 

[DonPedro]

In any case, we'll be smarter in a few days, but personally I think 6000 deliveries (give or take 200) may be more realistic than 5300-5500.

If we're placing final bets I will go on record with a final estimate of 5,650.

 

[aznt1217]

If we're placing final bets I will go on record with a final estimate of 5,650.

I am thinking along those lines as well with a higher than expected average price. Judging from an albeit small sample size, I think many have been going to P85+'s. I think what's going to be crazy is guidance. Many owners who have priority delivery are getting their dates pushed a week back, but owners who are after that week have the same date... and maybe even got earlier deliveries. I suspect that this is due to line reconfiguration for a significant ramp up of production.

Last time this happened, they closed the factory for work a little bit and then ramped up again. I was looking at that article about the CIO who mentions that Tesla built their own ERP systems. That to me is absolutely insane (in a good and surprisingly cutting edge way). They probably find efficiency in the line as they go along.

 

[DonPedro]

Norway is completely crazy now. Based on reports on the Norwegian forum, they are going to deliver some 6-7 months worth of reservations over the next 2-3 months. That is a lot of cars! (2000+?).

 

[aznt1217]

Wouldn't surprise me as they got their plant operations up there and logistically it makes so much sense.

 

[pfq1982]

Norway is completely crazy now. Based on reports on the Norwegian forum, they are going to deliver some 6-7 months worth of reservations over the next 2-3 months. That is a lot of cars! (2000+?).

Wow! So Norwegian owners are reporting a lot of expected delivery dates being given out? Are most in Q4?

I wonder if the delays we have seen crop up for US deliveries are a result of prioritizing the Norwegian deliveries.

 

[DonPedro]

Wow! So Norwegian owners are reporting a lot of expected delivery dates being given out? Are most in Q4?

I wonder if the delays we have seen crop up for US deliveries are a result of prioritizing the Norwegian deliveries.

Quite likely. Norwegian or EU in general.

I just saw a very interesting statistic. In October, only 100 cars were delivered in Norway. This in contrast to 616 in September! And now it seems we are going to back 600-800/month for the next 2-3 months. Clearly they on purpose avoided to have too many cars in transit at the end of Q3.

My hopothesis is that they are "phasing in" the in-transit inventory. They guided it for Q2, but then were delayed with the production. They could not guide it again without admitting to the delay, so they rather declared a beat in Q2 and are taking the pain in this quarter, in Q4 and possibly Q1'14.

 

[PeterJA]

In the following German interview from a few weeks ago, Elon says: "Right now we are producing a little over 500 cars a week."
Tesla-Chef Elon Musk im Interview - Frontal 21 - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek

570 is not a little over 500, so I don't know what to believe.

 

[fjm9898]

In the following German interview from a few weeks ago, Elon says: "Right now we are producing a little over 500 cars a week."
Tesla-Chef Elon Musk im Interview - Frontal 21 - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek

570 is not a little over 500, so I don't know what to believe.

525 for the week would be a 5775 quarter (11 weeks of production, unless they get 2 weeks off for xmas?) if they did not speed up production at all. So even if that is the case, we should make it to 21k. that is why i think they will up guidance to 21.5k if they get a 5500+ number for this quarter.

 

[pfq1982]

In the following German interview from a few weeks ago, Elon says: "Right now we are producing a little over 500 cars a week."
Tesla-Chef Elon Musk im Interview - Frontal 21 - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek

570 is not a little over 500, so I don't know what to believe.

That interview is very interesting. In the same paragraph, he says right now they are doing 25k - 30k annualized. I wish I knew if he is thinking about annualizing 48 weeks or 52 weeks! (25k at the low end implies annualizing 481 or 521 weekly production at the worst case 52 week factor). Yet the Weibo post shows they were actually doing 570 this week. So not sure what to make of that, other than he might have just been reiterating the last thing he had publicly said about production, which was "a little over 500" sometime around middle August.

But the really interest part was what he said right after what you quoted: Anticipate perhaps doubling that by the end of next year.

Annualizing 25k (the low end) means 50k+ annual rate by end of next year.

Previously, I had only seen him ever mention a goal of reaching 40k rate by end of next year.

 

[joefee]

I am on record 10/2 for >6,000 produced 5500 delivered!

Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations - Page 11

 

[Benz]

Expectations of Model S deliveries in Q3 2013 have steadily shifted from "higher than 6.000" to "lower than 6.000", generally speaking. Therefore, "about 6.000" would be a realistic estimate, I think.

 

[CalDreamin]

Could you estimate an approximate number of cars under these signs? Are we talking 10? 30? 100? More?

I wasn't able to see them well. Maybe 10-20.

 

[DonPedro]

I wasn't able to see them well. Maybe 10-20.

Thanks, that is very useful. Supports DaveT's hypothesis that there were few cars in transit in Q2.

 

[FredTMC]

Quite likely. Norwegian or EU in general.

I just saw a very interesting statistic. In October, only 100 cars were delivered in Norway. This in contrast to 616 in September! And now it seems we are going to back 600-800/month for the next 2-3 months. Clearly they on purpose avoided to have too many cars in transit at the end of Q3.

My hopothesis is that they are "phasing in" the in-transit inventory. They guided it for Q2, but then were delayed with the production. They could not guide it again without admitting to the delay, so they rather declared a beat in Q2 and are taking the pain in this quarter, in Q4 and possibly Q1'14.

yep. Agreed. TM should minimize cars in transit across quarters if top line is important to them. I believe it's important to them.

- - - Updated - - -

That interview is very interesting. In the same paragraph, he says right now they are doing 25k - 30k annualized. I wish I knew if he is thinking about annualizing 48 weeks or 52 weeks! (25k at the low end implies annualizing 481 or 521 weekly production at the worst case 52 week factor). Yet the Weibo post shows they were actually doing 570 this week. So not sure what to make of that, other than he might have just been reiterating the last thing he had publicly said about production, which was "a little over 500" sometime around middle August.

But the really interest part was what he said right after what you quoted: Anticipate perhaps doubling that by the end of next year.

Annualizing 25k (the low end) means 50k+ annual rate by end of next year.

Previously, I had only seen him ever mention a goal of reaching 40k rate by end of next year.

The stock has taken a complete pounding in Oct. My view is that guidance needs be adjusted higher and surprise the street. Traditionally, there's been a lot of sandbagging in TM guidance. I think analysts are catching on to it. In other words a little less sandbagging is a good thing. However, TM still needs to beat whatever guidance they provide and I think they will. We'd all like to see the stock recover thru the end of year. $175-$185 seems about right to me. And >$200 after q4 call in Feb.

 

[fjm9898]

The stock has taken a complete pounding in Oct. My view is that guidance needs be adjusted higher and surprise the street. Traditionally, there's been a lot of sandbagging in TM guidance. I think analysts are catching on to it. In other words a little less sandbagging is a good thing. However, TM still needs to beat whatever guidance they provide and I think they will. We'd all like to see the stock recover thru the end of year. $175-$185 seems about right to me. And >$200 after q4 call in Feb.

Agreed. How big the pop is complete depends on how much forward guidance Elon give and how much of its is NOT sandbagged to the extreme. is he comes out and says we have a depand for 50 MS a year and that is our production goal then that is over 100% growth. That is what i am looking for. 100% growth, so i dont want to see guidance under 40k and if it is, the street will not be pleased.

The most guidance shockers they come out with, the most change the stock has of getting back to its ATH @194.50. Elon sandbags to get a beat but not a blow out, then yes, i dont see a pop taking us over 180 from where we sit right now.

 

[bonaire]

Agreed. How big the pop is complete depends on how much forward guidance Elon give and how much of its is NOT sandbagged to the extreme. is he comes out and says we have a depand for 50 MS a year and that is our production goal then that is over 100% growth. That is what i am looking for. 100% growth, so i dont want to see guidance under 40k and if it is, the street will not be pleased.

The most guidance shockers they come out with, the most change the stock has of getting back to its ATH @194.50. Elon sandbags to get a beat but not a blow out, then yes, i dont see a pop taking us over 180 from where we sit right now.

Can you describe the sandbagging as you see it? When I hear him say terms like "if demand in Asia is like it is in the USA then maybe 10,000 a year". Stuff like that is jello and hard to pin down. It isn't very professional to give such statements. Without opening the books to investors, he could say anything and the course of time, people forget and forgive for sandbagging. The Model X was supposed to be production and selling in number by now. In essence, they have extended the zero percent loans that customers have extended the company. May as well start taking orders for Model E this quarter. It is frustrating for someone who wants to support the company to listen to the various levels of semi-transparency that he uses in quite a bit of his statements.

 

[Robert.Boston]

The Model X was supposed to be production and selling in number by now. In essence, they have extended the zero percent loans that customers have extended the company.

Err, no. Model X was never supposed to be shipped in quantity until 2014. I'm not denying that the Model X schedule has slipped, but not as badly as you're making it out to be.

May as well start taking orders for Model E this quarter. It is frustrating for someone who wants to support the company to listen to the various levels of semi-transparency that he uses in quite a bit of his statements.

Compared to what or whom? Elon spends vastly more time in front of a microphone than any other car OEM, and provides far more information than any other CEO about the current state of the company and its future plans. While it's frustrating sometimes that he's not laying all of his cards on the table, it's hardly surprising that he doesn't.

 

[bonaire]

Err, no. Model X was never supposed to be shipped in quantity until 2014. I'm not denying that the Model X schedule has slipped, but not as badly as you're making it out to be.

Compared to what or whom? Elon spends vastly more time in front of a microphone than any other car OEM, and provides far more information than any other CEO about the current state of the company and its future plans. While it's frustrating sometimes that he's not laying all of his cards on the table, it's hardly surprising that he doesn't.

My by now statement is based on this:
Tesla delays Model X one year | The Car Tech blog - CNET Reviews

there are things that I think everyone would want reported more clearly. Like monthly sales.
i find it strange to see 6000 people loaning tesla money without hope of getting an X for another year. Is that a form of "support" or does a low Vin # have value?