Q3 Delivery Calcuations

[StapleGun]

My by now statement is based on this:
Tesla delays Model X one year | The Car Tech blog - CNET Reviews

there are things that I think everyone would want reported more clearly. Like monthly sales.
i find it strange to see 6000 people loaning tesla money without hope of getting an X for another year. Is that a form of "support" or does a low Vin # have value?

It shows that 6000+ people want a Model X soon enough that they have determined the deposit is worthwhile. Anyone who already paid but decides 2014/15 is too long to wait has the option to cancel their reservation and end up waiting a little longer if they eventually purchase the car. Unless Tesla intentionally lied about their initial planned release date then there is no problem here.

 

[bonaire]

It shows that 6000+ people want a Model X soon enough that they have determined the deposit is worthwhile. Anyone who already paid but decides 2014/15 is too long to wait has the option to cancel their reservation and end up waiting a little longer if they eventually purchase the car. Unless Tesla intentionally lied about their initial planned release date then there is no problem here.

Not intentional lying. But it appears that reservations should be taken when a specific "going to production on this fixed date" is announced. With the 1-year slip, perhaps longer, this is a financial consideration to look at but also questions about "why was it delayed for so long?". Very few will cancel their reservations but at least one person commented at TesLive, IIRC, that if they had put the money into Tesla stock instead of a Sig. X reservation, that reservation amount would pay for the car with stock-value returns. Where you put your money and when is a sign of how you control your financial situation. Personally, I would never lock up money for 0% return in a reservation for any car that is not even in production yet, but maybe that is just a personal decision. Tesla has lots of ways to earn money - from their DoE loan to the Sr. Notes issued to pay that back to other finance options. They don't need to rely on reservations to bank the money for other uses (as stated in the 10-Q, reservation money can be used for any purpose but cannot be recognized as revenue until the car is delivered). ( yes, I understand the "you are locking in today's price and not tomorrow's price increase..." )

Some print articles state that the Model X will start at $59K "just like the Model S". But pricing of X is not here yet and presumably will be $70K base. I don't live in the stratospheric world of ultra-high finances and where money is no object but I do understand that this is "play money" for so many people and the value of "being first" is important for some.

Read this article and tell me if anything is slipping based on perceptions of 20 months ago. Especially the date assumption for Gen-III.
Why The Tesla Model X Is A Home Run - Forbes

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think there are two main reasons to put down a deposit:

1) You want the Signature edition car. Pure and simple.

2) You want to guarantee that you do get the car within months/first year of the production. Currently the queue is already ~9k cars, which means that depending how fast they ramp up people ordering when production starts might not see their car for a year because there's a backlog to be processed. So putting down the ordinary 5k$ reservation is a way to guarantee a spot in the first delivery year. Though by now that might not be that important anymore as there are already 9k people in front of you. Then again, if that number doubles by the time the MX rolls into production, then ...

 

[bonaire]

They have a problem with built times if it will take one year to build 9K Model X units. Don't tell that to a WS analyst who keep saying Tesla will build 500,000 per year real soon.

 

[fjm9898]

They have a problem with built times if it will take one year to build 9K Model X units. Don't tell that to a WS analyst who keep saying Tesla will build 500,000 per year real soon.

I know we are getting a bit off topic. I just want to say i highly doubt this will happen. They have learned alot building the MS which was their slow start up. Also now suppliers see Tesla as a viable business so they wont hold back supply. I see Tesla being able to make 25k+ MX in 2015 (assuming the start getting a few out Q4 2014 to get production going)

 

[Sunnyday]

Does anyone know what the consensus analyst estimate is for deliveries in Q3 and Q4?

 

[fjm9898]

q3 ranges quite heavily. DB and a few others that actually know what they are talking about when it comes to Tesla are all guessing around 5500

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Quite likely. Norwegian or EU in general.

I just saw a very interesting statistic. In October, only 100 cars were delivered in Norway. This in contrast to 616 in September! And now it seems we are going to back 600-800/month for the next 2-3 months. Clearly they on purpose avoided to have too many cars in transit at the end of Q3.

My hopothesis is that they are "phasing in" the in-transit inventory. They guided it for Q2, but then were delayed with the production. They could not guide it again without admitting to the delay, so they rather declared a beat in Q2 and are taking the pain in this quarter, in Q4 and possibly Q1'14.

This +1

- - - Updated - - -

Thanks, that is very useful. Supports DaveT's hypothesis that there were few cars in transit in Q2.

Yes, I don't think there were many cars at all in transit to Europe at the end of Q2. If not for the anecdotal reports of EuroSig sightings on the factory floor I didn't have much room in the data for Euro cars at all at the end of Q2. Under a hundred seems safe.

- - - Updated - - -

Not intentional lying. But it appears that reservations should be taken when a specific "going to production on this fixed date" is announced. With the 1-year slip, perhaps longer, this is a financial consideration to look at but also questions about "why was it delayed for so long?". Very few will cancel their reservations but at least one person commented at TesLive, IIRC, that if they had put the money into Tesla stock instead of a Sig. X reservation, that reservation amount would pay for the car with stock-value returns. Where you put your money and when is a sign of how you control your financial situation. Personally, I would never lock up money for 0% return in a reservation for any car that is not even in production yet, but maybe that is just a personal decision. Tesla has lots of ways to earn money - from their DoE loan to the Sr. Notes issued to pay that back to other finance options. They don't need to rely on reservations to bank the money for other uses (as stated in the 10-Q, reservation money can be used for any purpose but cannot be recognized as revenue until the car is delivered). ( yes, I understand the "you are locking in today's price and not tomorrow's price increase..." )

This is just wrong. This financing was made available because of demonstrated market demand for future products. Because Tesla has no real track record in automotive sales, this demand was demonstrated most clearly in the form of paid reservations. In the case of the DoE loan, the financial covenants were structured with the reservation payments in mind, and without them Tesla would likely have defaulted on the terms of the loan well before the Model S went into production.

There aren't restrictive covenants with the convertible notes, but those were marketed by relying in large part on demonstrated future market demand for both the Model S (which is still taking long term reservations in many parts of the world) and the Model X. Those notes would not have sold as well without those tangible commitments from customers.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Annnnd.... the answer is "slightly over 5,500 deliveries, including over 1,000 deliveries to European customers. Production in the quarter significantly exceeded deliveries in order to fill the pipeline of vehicles in transit to Europe and provide cars for servicing and marketing use."

Looks like DonPedro had the number quite closely on this thread.

 

[DonPedro]

Annnnd.... the answer is "slightly over 5,500 deliveries, including over 1,000 deliveries to European customers. Production in the quarter significantly exceeded deliveries in order to fill the pipeline of vehicles in transit to Europe and provide cars for servicing and marketing use."

Looks like DonPedro had the number quite closely on this thread.

OK, OK, you goaded me into bragging. I also had revenues at $602.3M (actual: $602.6M) and gross margin at 21% (actual: 21%).

 

[Robert.Boston]

OK, OK, you goaded me into bragging. I also had revenues at $602.3M (actual: $603M) and gross margin at 21% (actual: 21%).

You win a

 

[joefee]

I am on record 10/2 for >6,000 produced 5500 delivered!

Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations - Page 11

Looks right on for 5500 delivered but what was #produced?