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So why has the stock tanked after hours?
Extensive discussion about this happening over here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - Page 1199So why has the stock tanked after hours?
I would say that differently:Nothing earth shattering I guess. Deliveries are lower than I had expected.
and perhaps1. Tesla projections were exceeded.
2. Arbitrarily high 3rd party projections were shown to be overly aggressive.
Lesson: Trust Tesla's projections rather than "external experts".3. TSLA market price prior to earnings apparently reflected the 3rd party projections rather than Tesla's projections.
Lesson: Trust Tesla's projections rather than "external experts".
Tesla exceeded their own expectations but didnt't meet 3rd party projections, so both were wrong and arguably neither can be trusted? Just food for thought.....
So why has the stock tanked after hours?
I disagree. Tesla's number has always been a floor not a ceiling, and the real number was pretty close to that floor.Tesla exceeded their own expectations but didnt't meet 3rd party projections, so both were wrong and arguably neither can be trusted? Just food for thought.....
I think big money plugged in increased SG&A into their models and that affected forward EPS projections... I mean not only Q over Q sg&a increased from 60 to 77 millions, but Tesla guided additional 20% increase in Q4...
What SG&A you guys think will be for year 2014, I mean it obviously should be higher then 92 mil projected for Q4. I mean Tesla guided 40k units sales in 2014. If it double up, Tesla would have a hard time reaching $1 EPS for 2014(one buck EPS is a consensus from street analysts, http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/earnings-forecast )
My impression was always that Tesla plans to immediately re-invest any surplus. Simply since that is the fastest way to grow. Except that (probably) in front of larger investments, such as for the Gen III production line, they may save some money until they have enough to make that larger investment. So I would't expect a growing EPS number.
When they say they plan positive cash flow while growing fast, I don't take that to mean anything else than "larger than zero".
But reinvesting is good. I mean CAPEX do not affect earnings. SG&A on the other hand is a "boom!" - money has gone. Same thing with R&D. And Tesla guided 25% increase for R&D in Q4, that's also not helping.
What I really mean - there have to be something in the Q3 shareholder letter that led to sharp drop of TSLA. Drop started way before Q&A with Musk/Deepak. So it was not something that they said. But something in this letter was a "bad news".
I'd see R&D as part of investing in growth. Why would CAPEX be good and R&D not?
I'm not sure there is anything seriously wrong with the shareholder letter, or the info in it. Apparently deliveries could be higher without supply constraints specifically by battery cells. However, if you look at the 1 month chart (with hourly bars), today's $150 can be seen as a continuation of a downward trend which started Oct 21st, or even Oct 15th (slowly). Except for the spike on Nov 4th and Nov 5th, that is.