TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Q3'16 Delivery Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by TMSE, Sep 13, 2016.

?

Poll - What is your Q3 Delivery Estimate?

Poll closed Oct 8, 2016.
  1. Up to 20,000

    1.4%
  2. 20,001 to 23,000

    22.5%
  3. 23,001 to 26,000

    62.7%
  4. 26,001 to 29,000

    12.0%
  5. 29,001 or more

    1.4%
  1. TMSE

    TMSE Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    586
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Please share your estimates for Q3'2016 deliveries.
     
  2. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2015
    Messages:
    1,072
    Location:
    Midwest
    23,460

    13,607 S
    9,853 X
     
    • Informative x 1
  3. tander

    tander Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    845
    What I like is the lowest poll option is still their best quarter ever.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  4. Jayjs20

    Jayjs20 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2016
    Messages:
    373
    Location:
    California
    It'll need to be way more than their best quarter ever. In my opinion, there's only two things going through people's minds for Q3 delivery: 2H and 50k.

    Anything less than 23k will look really bad.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  5. tander

    tander Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    845
    #5 tander, Sep 13, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
    Unfortunately you might be right, although if we're talking short term thinking here, maybe all people will remember is the 14370 from last quarter, and if this quarter is 20k+ that's a big improvement. I guess cashflow pos and profits would probably trump all though.
     
  6. TMSE

    TMSE Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    586
    Location:
    San Francisco
    It looks like I am the lone foolishly overoptimistic guy.
     
  7. racer26

    racer26 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2016
    Messages:
    874
    Location:
    Newmarket, ON, Canada
    Not completely alone. I posted my reasoning a while ago, but basically, my pessimistic bound is 23k, my optimistic bound is 32k, and my realistic range is 26-28k.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 2
  8. EinSV

    EinSV Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2016
    Messages:
    884
    Location:
    NorCal
    With the caveat that I do not follow these things anywhere near as closely as many (most) of you, my estimate is 22,300. Could easily be much higher than that for a whole host of reasons. A blow-out quarter before a cap raise would be nice.
     
    • Helpful x 1
  9. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,572
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    Less than a million, more than 1 :)
     
    • Funny x 3
  10. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2015
    Messages:
    502
    Location:
    Arcadia, CA
    I'm guessing 24k, but with their goal of being cash flow positive, 25k might be possible. Anything above 25k, and the stock will go through the roof (80k for 2016 would pretty much be guaranteed at that point)!
     
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  11. TMSE

    TMSE Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    586
    Location:
    San Francisco
    How high is the roof? In $s :D
     
  12. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2015
    Messages:
    502
    Location:
    Arcadia, CA
    Depends on how high you can dream? :p
     
    • Funny x 1
  13. RobInAZ

    RobInAZ Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2016
    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    Scottsdale, AZ
    Calculating based on VIN numbers, it looks like the S jumped about 23,000 since the beginning of the quarter. I know this doesn't account for work in progress, but what else could throw off this way of looking at it?
     
  14. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2015
    Messages:
    1,072
    Location:
    Midwest
    How are you calculating that? I go by VIN assignment date and I see 149,900 as of 7/1 and 159,900 as of 9/1, i.e. 5k/month and on pace for 15k total.
     
    • Informative x 2
  15. RobInAZ

    RobInAZ Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2016
    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    Scottsdale, AZ
    I was taking VIN 138923 which is the first one I can find in Q3 on ev-cpo (added on Aug 8th) and 160XXX which is my VIN and expected to be delivered this month. I'm new to the whole VIN tracking thing, so where did you get 149,900 from?
     
  16. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2016
    Messages:
    417
    Location:
    DC, DC
    Are you willing to share if your car is high, mid, or low 160XXX ?
     
  17. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2015
    Messages:
    1,072
    Location:
    Midwest
    Well, there's a lot of ways to count vins. I use the model s tracker spreadsheet and use the vins as of the vin assignment date, start on the first day of the quarter and see where it's at by the end of quarter. Nothing gives a perfect picture of deliveries because vins assigned in the previous quarter are being delivered this quarter and vins assigned at the end of this quarter will be delivered in q4. I mainly use it as an indication of demand and build rate. I wouldn't trade solely on Vin counting as it's just way too variable. For example, q2 had waaaaay more vins assigned than deliveries.
     
    • Informative x 1
  18. RobInAZ

    RobInAZ Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2016
    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    Scottsdale, AZ
    Yeah, I guess counting VINs isn't nearly as accurate as I thought it might be. Production does seem up though as 200+ new model S were added to ev-cpo last night with VINs as high as 160802
     
  19. NannerAirCraft

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2013
    Messages:
    45
    Location:
    Linwood, MN
    I'll predict 22,600 deliveries for Q3.
     
    • Informative x 1
  20. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,525
    Location:
    USA
    #20 bonaire, Sep 20, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2016
    13,500(S) 8,200(X) = 21,700 Deliveries
    12,400(S) 9,000(X) = 21,500 Production (with 2200/wk hit for a week in Sept)

    To keep expenses down, I suggest production comes in under Deliveries (also due to "in transit" from Q2)
    Q4 of 2015 had a -3662 delta on production vs. delivery.
    In transit cars could would have included loaner/demo turned inventory closing out classic fascia.
     

Share This Page