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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by TMSE, Sep 13, 2016.
Please share your estimates for Q3'2016 deliveries.
What I like is the lowest poll option is still their best quarter ever.
It'll need to be way more than their best quarter ever. In my opinion, there's only two things going through people's minds for Q3 delivery: 2H and 50k.
Anything less than 23k will look really bad.
Unfortunately you might be right, although if we're talking short term thinking here, maybe all people will remember is the 14370 from last quarter, and if this quarter is 20k+ that's a big improvement. I guess cashflow pos and profits would probably trump all though.
It looks like I am the lone foolishly overoptimistic guy.
Not completely alone. I posted my reasoning a while ago, but basically, my pessimistic bound is 23k, my optimistic bound is 32k, and my realistic range is 26-28k.
With the caveat that I do not follow these things anywhere near as closely as many (most) of you, my estimate is 22,300. Could easily be much higher than that for a whole host of reasons. A blow-out quarter before a cap raise would be nice.
Less than a million, more than 1
I'm guessing 24k, but with their goal of being cash flow positive, 25k might be possible. Anything above 25k, and the stock will go through the roof (80k for 2016 would pretty much be guaranteed at that point)!
How high is the roof? In $s
Depends on how high you can dream?
Calculating based on VIN numbers, it looks like the S jumped about 23,000 since the beginning of the quarter. I know this doesn't account for work in progress, but what else could throw off this way of looking at it?
How are you calculating that? I go by VIN assignment date and I see 149,900 as of 7/1 and 159,900 as of 9/1, i.e. 5k/month and on pace for 15k total.
I was taking VIN 138923 which is the first one I can find in Q3 on ev-cpo (added on Aug 8th) and 160XXX which is my VIN and expected to be delivered this month. I'm new to the whole VIN tracking thing, so where did you get 149,900 from?
Are you willing to share if your car is high, mid, or low 160XXX ?
Well, there's a lot of ways to count vins. I use the model s tracker spreadsheet and use the vins as of the vin assignment date, start on the first day of the quarter and see where it's at by the end of quarter. Nothing gives a perfect picture of deliveries because vins assigned in the previous quarter are being delivered this quarter and vins assigned at the end of this quarter will be delivered in q4. I mainly use it as an indication of demand and build rate. I wouldn't trade solely on Vin counting as it's just way too variable. For example, q2 had waaaaay more vins assigned than deliveries.
Yeah, I guess counting VINs isn't nearly as accurate as I thought it might be. Production does seem up though as 200+ new model S were added to ev-cpo last night with VINs as high as 160802
I'll predict 22,600 deliveries for Q3.
13,500(S) 8,200(X) = 21,700 Deliveries
12,400(S) 9,000(X) = 21,500 Production (with 2200/wk hit for a week in Sept)
To keep expenses down, I suggest production comes in under Deliveries (also due to "in transit" from Q2)
Q4 of 2015 had a -3662 delta on production vs. delivery.
In transit cars could would have included loaner/demo turned inventory closing out classic fascia.