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It'll need to be way more than their best quarter ever. In my opinion, there's only two things going through people's minds for Q3 delivery: 2H and 50k.
Anything less than 23k will look really bad.
Not completely alone. I posted my reasoning a while ago, but basically, my pessimistic bound is 23k, my optimistic bound is 32k, and my realistic range is 26-28k.It looks like I am the lone foolishly overoptimistic guy.
How high is the roof? In $sI'm guessing 24k, but with their goal of being cash flow positive, 25k might be possible. Anything above 25k, and the stock will go through the roof (80k for 2016 would pretty much be guaranteed at that point)!
How high is the roof? In $s
How are you calculating that? I go by VIN assignment date and I see 149,900 as of 7/1 and 159,900 as of 9/1, i.e. 5k/month and on pace for 15k total.Calculating based on VIN numbers, it looks like the S jumped about 23,000 since the beginning of the quarter. I know this doesn't account for work in progress, but what else could throw off this way of looking at it?
How are you calculating that? I go by VIN assignment date and I see 149,900 as of 7/1 and 159,900 as of 9/1, i.e. 5k/month and on pace for 15k total.
I was taking VIN 138923 which is the first one I can find in Q3 on ev-cpo (added on Aug 8th) and 160XXX which is my VIN and expected to be delivered this month. I'm new to the whole VIN tracking thing, so where did you get 149,900 from?
Well, there's a lot of ways to count vins. I use the model s tracker spreadsheet and use the vins as of the vin assignment date, start on the first day of the quarter and see where it's at by the end of quarter. Nothing gives a perfect picture of deliveries because vins assigned in the previous quarter are being delivered this quarter and vins assigned at the end of this quarter will be delivered in q4. I mainly use it as an indication of demand and build rate. I wouldn't trade solely on Vin counting as it's just way too variable. For example, q2 had waaaaay more vins assigned than deliveries.I was taking VIN 138923 which is the first one I can find in Q3 on ev-cpo (added on Aug 8th) and 160XXX which is my VIN and expected to be delivered this month. I'm new to the whole VIN tracking thing, so where did you get 149,900 from?