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I have hard time getting to the precision of 1,000s, let alone to the 100s you got. I wonder how.
Here is my ballpark estimate:
16,000(S) 11,000(X) = 27,000 Deliveries (includes extra 2K intransit from Q2)
15,000(S) 10,000(X) = 25,000 Production
dennis
Model S Plaid
I pointed out on another thread that cost accounting doesn't work that way. All costs associated with producing a car that is not delivered in the same quarter go into Finished Goods Inventory. They don't impact the Income Statement until a subsequent quarter when the car is sold and the costs are matched up with the revenue.
I won the 2014 guessing contest by a guess within about 36 for the year. So I hope to be within a 1000 or so this year, and 400-500 for this quarter.
Since you're so proud of that accomplishment, I thought I'd check your other past results (google to the rescue!):
2015: 47,690 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1187834/)
2016: 65,701 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1379830/)
Yeah, the 2016 one will be a real doozy.
Not to pick on you, since the standard stock disclaimer is "past performance doesn't guarantee future results", but you don't really have a leg to stand on here.
Edit:
Q4 2015: 14,690 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1293881/)
Since you're so proud of that accomplishment, I thought I'd check your other past results (google to the rescue!):
2015: 47,690 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1187834/)
2016: 65,701 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1379830/)
Yeah, the 2016 one will be a real doozy.
Not to pick on you, since the standard stock disclaimer is "past performance doesn't guarantee future results", but you don't really have a leg to stand on here.
Edit:
Q4 2015: 14,690 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1293881/)
Ouch, so off by almost 3,000 deliveries in q4 2015. So basically bonaire is a broken bear clock, he's right whenever tesla has a bad quarter/year, and always wrong when they have good ones.
PasVol
Member
Confirmed mine 9/9 and it was 160868. But flipped it for an inventory 75D with 8400€ discount.
Ouch, so off by almost 3,000 deliveries in q4 2015. So basically bonaire is a broken bear clock, he's right whenever tesla has a bad quarter/year, and always wrong when they have good ones.
That was off why? Denmark did something funky. China was supposedly selling at 20% discounts. My estimates were before those circumstances were initiated.
Soooo what will the excuse be when you are off by ~15,000 cars in 2016? That's not exactly a rounding error.
There are some things occurring that show that Q3 will be a higher sales quarter than Q4. I've really upped my estimate to 69,750 elsewhere. I cannot change this year's competition guess now since they are locked in.
dandurston
Member
The fact that a bear/MontanaSkeptic contributor has a 21,700 guess is pretty encouraging. We can take that as a strong floor for deliveries.
dandurston
Member
My guess is that Tesla has something big planned for Q4 to boost demand and the current incentives are a bridge to that. Perhaps we'll see AP2 announced in another week when Q3 deliveries are done.
You've always got some crazy theories going.
Remember near the end of Q2 when you were certain that demand was grinding to a halt and that Tesla was going to fake a supplier issue as a pretext for shutting down production? Where's that?
And then they were forcing people to take vacation to lower SG&A? Nope, they are working like mad.
And they were purposely holding back deliveries until after quarter end for states like Texas where the car must be paid for in advance, in an effort to boost Customer Deposits line item in the 10-Q? You still haven't explained to me how the benefit of missing delivery numbers, revenue and gross profit is outweighed by adding $100k to a line item in the 10-Q that no one cares about.
Now you say they purposely didn't deliver the 5150 in transit at the end of Q2 in an effort to "sales mound" and blowout Q3 at the expense of Q4. Based on your numbers you seem to project something like 17,000 for Q4. Good. Luck. With. That.
I am going with 26,000 deliveries for Q3.
Production should be around 25k and the 5k in transit from Q2 provide a bigger buffer than usual for production not delivered within the same quarter. I would say about 2-3k will be "in transit" at all times, so about 2k could be a positive balance from there tampered by maybe 0.5-1 week of q3 production only delivered in q4. Inventory sales are a wildcard though.
Production should be around 25k and the 5k in transit from Q2 provide a bigger buffer than usual for production not delivered within the same quarter. I would say about 2-3k will be "in transit" at all times, so about 2k could be a positive balance from there tampered by maybe 0.5-1 week of q3 production only delivered in q4. Inventory sales are a wildcard though.
Using Model S delivery spreadsheets, I got the following statistics, number of deliveries for each 1000 VINs.
My feeling is that MS Q3 number is about ~13000+/-500, although different people would have different interpretations. As many others have pointed out, the recent inventory push makes the estimation harder than before.
Comments are welcome.
My feeling is that MS Q3 number is about ~13000+/-500, although different people would have different interpretations. As many others have pointed out, the recent inventory push makes the estimation harder than before.
Comments are welcome.
My model has 12900 MS and I agree with the above.
My model also has 9200 MX today.
So, current estimate is upped a bit to 22100
What is concerning is the slowing of Vin # assignments to vocal buyers of both models. If everyone gets "trained" that the discounts are company policy, either Q4 must maintain the discounting or a lot of folks will wait until December to buy.
I think "extrapolation" is happening. If San Francisco has 50 immediate inventory, folks are thinking this equates to an additional 2000 sales in Q3 due to some type of elastic extrapolation.
My model also has 9200 MX today.
So, current estimate is upped a bit to 22100
What is concerning is the slowing of Vin # assignments to vocal buyers of both models. If everyone gets "trained" that the discounts are company policy, either Q4 must maintain the discounting or a lot of folks will wait until December to buy.
I think "extrapolation" is happening. If San Francisco has 50 immediate inventory, folks are thinking this equates to an additional 2000 sales in Q3 due to some type of elastic extrapolation.
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