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Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

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Would it make sense to "highlight" selling more MS60 in order to do more vehicles without eating through the battery constraint? Maybe have gallery employees talk customers into considering those models over the 85? Also, how many batteries are going to SolarCity - or will those be Samsung or other vendors'? With SCTY CEO saying they want to try to install "all future" systems with battery standby, that is a lot of batteries going over to SCTY.

I think Tesla would rather have the higher margin higher end models and ship at a slower rampup than lower margin 60kWh models. About the SCTY battery supply Elon's stated on Twitter that the battery tech there is slightly different and no foreseeable constraint there (also shouldn't impact MS sales).
 
To do that, the factory must move to a 3rd shift to increase production 50%.
Why? We know the line is capable of around 40K cars per year in two shifts. You seem to be assuming the production rate is limited because of line speed when in fact it may be due to supply issues. If Panasonic and other suppliers are able to ramp up production then the output could indeed jump without hiring more people.

As to selling more of the lower profit margin 60's, that doesn't make sense. Tesla generates more profit on a per cell basis in the 85kWh cars.
As Mario stated, the Solar City cells are different, they are 200 wh/kg density as opposed to the 250 wh/kg density used in the cars.
 
Why? We know the line is capable of around 40K cars per year in two shifts. You seem to be assuming the production rate is limited because of line speed when in fact it may be due to supply issues. If Panasonic and other suppliers are able to ramp up production then the output could indeed jump without hiring more people.

As to selling more of the lower profit margin 60's, that doesn't make sense. Tesla generates more profit on a per cell basis in the 85kWh cars.
As Mario stated, the Solar City cells are different, they are 200 wh/kg density as opposed to the 250 wh/kg density used in the cars.

Exactly my understanding. I believe that once margin was at 25% they would continue to seek to lower costs of the materials, time, etc. Then use that extra room to hire more workers, more inventory, etc. Both coming together to either keep margin at 25% or slowly grow it while rapidly expanding production. Their would be no absolute reason that they would need another shift. They would need another shift only at maybe Q2-Q3 next year when approaching 800-900 per week. Production ramp-up should be something that none of us can predict
 
Exactly my understanding. I believe that once margin was at 25% they would continue to seek to lower costs of the materials, time, etc. Then use that extra room to hire more workers, more inventory, etc. Both coming together to either keep margin at 25% or slowly grow it while rapidly expanding production. Their would be no absolute reason that they would need another shift. They would need another shift only at maybe Q2-Q3 next year when approaching 800-900 per week. Production ramp-up should be something that none of us can predict

Production of up 830 will NOT require addition of the third shift - it is "as designed" production capacity with two shifts, without any additional capEx. See my post linked below for the source:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...d-expectations?p=518213&viewfull=1#post518213

The two shift production can be further increased to about 1040 cars/week with additional 25 to 50 capEx, as reported by sleepyhead: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...d-expectations?p=518371&viewfull=1#post518371

This thread has some good information, please read it before jumping to conclusions.
 
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This thread has some good information, please read it before jumping to conclusions.

+10

getting so tired of ppl making statements like they are facts when the truth has been stated so many times before on this forum... wish we just had an automatic fact check function to make the FUD ppl ST*U... bonaire please stop saying things unless u are 100% sure that what you are saying is fact and true...
 
For those of you who like to count VINs, I received the following email today from someone expecting delivery soon:
You own the Tesla Model S & X Reservations and Deliveries ZeeMap? I don't know how to change my entry. RN506106 to VIN P26874? Perhaps writing and asking you to do it is the only way?

Delivery ETA is this coming Thursday, 12/19/2013.
For reference, my car (P01536) was delivered a little over a year ago, on 12/14/12.
 
Trying to make an estimate for Q4 earnings. At the Q3 report, Elon guided that deliveries will be up about 10%. Later, we heard that deliveries are running above expectations, they'll probably be up 15%. On the other hand, he guided that operating expenses will be up 22%. Without trying to predict changes in ZEV credit sales, we can expect Q4 earnings to be quite a bit lower than Q3. But probably still in the black after non-GAAP adjustments.
 
Here are the numbers for Q4 from The Netherlands (second European market behind Norway):

- October: 32 registrations
- November: 408 registrations
- December 578 registrations

Total for Q4: 1018 (total for the full year: 1195)

We can assume that a registration (license plate issued) almost equals a sale for Tesla. There are usually just a few days between the issueing of a plate and the delivery to the customer (which only happens after full payment to Tesla).

There was a big rush to get cars delivered before December 31st, because after that date the preferential fiscal treatment of EV is becoming a bit less preferential (although still much better than ICE's, so 2014 will also see strong sales).

It would be interesting for Q4-projections to hear the numbers from Norway.
 
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Here are the numbers for Q3 from The Netherlands (second European market behind Norway):

- October: 32 registrations
- November: 408 registrations
- December 578 registrations

Total for Q3: 1018 (total for the full year: 1195)

It would be interesting for Q3-projections to hear the numbers from Norway.

Norway:

- October: 98
- November: 527
- December: Estimated around 600 (final number not ready yet, was 557 cars as of Dec.23rd)

Estimated year total: A little over 2000 cars (1983 as of Dec.23rd)
 
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Ok, so that brings us to 2196 in NL + NO. Anz news from the rest of Europe? I would not expect numbers even close to these 2 countries, but I could be wrong. Switzerland should be interesting as I seem to rember seeing a lot of reservations from there. Germany should start to pick up by now now too, shouldn't it? Maybe 3k for Q4 Europe in total?

Germany, Belgium and Switzerland is the jokers, but you are not wrong. Peobably a bit under 3k total.