Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I don't treat the Model X "delay" as news. It was hinted at, if not more explicitly stated, in recent public statements Elon or somebody made.

I also think the delay is strategic, to maximize Model S sales and profits.

Then again, could be wrong, maybe they've discovered the falcon-wing doors aren't as bright an idea as they hoped.
 
From Q2 2013 Shareholder letter:
"If demonstrated demand in North America and Europe is matched by similar demand in Asia, annualized sales for Model S could exceed 40,000 units per year by late 2014."

From Q4 2013 Shareholder letter:
"The potential in Europe and Asia is even more significant. Towards the end of the year, we expect sales in those regions combined to be almost twice that of North America."

Q2 mentioned "if". Q4 mentions "we expect".
Tesla appears to be growing more confident on demand from Europe and Asia.
I hope an analyst asks about this so Elon can expand during the conference call.
 
"Q4 non-GAAP net income was $46 million, or $0.33 pershare, while Q4 GAAP net loss was $16 million or $(0.13)per share. Both results include a $4.6 million net gain, or$0.03 per share from a favorable foreign currency impact. "

Note the last sentence - I remember discussion on here previously about the USD exchange rate with other currencies and how that would affect revenue/EPS. We can use the numbers given here as a reference for future earnings reports to adjust the numbers for the USD going up or down.
 
And I think as this is I think the first time TSLA reports produced it's precisely to show incremental increase. And there are other nice nuggets hidden in the report like showing that the Beijing store is highest traffic store ever (likely translates to record reservations) and for example customer deposits went from $138.8M a year ago to $163.1M even though Tesla delivered 22.5k cars. That shows the amount of demand that is HUGE.

Yes, because didn't they also reduce the deposit amount?
 
Yes, because didn't they also reduce the deposit amount?

It's €2000 for Model S and €4000 for Model X. Signature is €40k. That should translate approximately to 2.5k, 5k and 50k$. So assuming max Sig X amount is 2000 (all for EU, US) that's 100M, the rest 60k I'd give a mix of 1:1 for S:X so 30M for 2.5k Model S i.e. 12k cars reserved and 30M for X which is 6k reserved. Hmm... I guess the Sig count is lower and the S and X numbers are respectively higher so more likely 60M for sigs and 100M for rest giving a nice full 2014 already pre-reserved?
 
thanks to everyone here for all the work you do. I was considering hedging but after reading everyone's projections I went in naked and i'm happy I did so. Looking forward to the conference call, I think Elon is going to mention at least a little info on the Giga Factory.
 
My initial Q4 shareholder letter thoughts:
- strong FY2014 guidance at 35k and 28% gross margin in Q4 2014
- super strong revenue numbers at $761m
- reached 25% gross margin target for Q4
- production target/guidance given for 1000 cars/week by end of year
- Gigafactory to deliver "massive volume" of stationary storage for solar industry

Neutral:
- expenses higher than expected but doesn't matter since revenue was so strong
- Q1 guidance for cars delivered is 6400

Negative:
- it appears Model X is delayed somewhat as design prototypes on road by end of year and no mention of customer deliveries by end of year

Overall, it looks very good.

Dave, what caused the discrepancy in net income (gaap and non gaap) between yours and the actual result?

*Edit: NM. DaveT was actually pretty spot on.
 
Last edited:
Did i miss it in the report? I didn't see anything on expected EV credits for 2014. Those will help earnings in the first half of the year, correct?

I've been too busy with other projects to run the numbers, but if I recall, my old models showed that 2014 should be slightly less ZEV revenue than in 2013, followed by a probable increase in 2015. But forward looking projections into that market are pretty hard. It really depends on how the other automakers do in meeting the requirements.
 
Nice to see you again. don't be a stranger!

Thanks :)

It's hard to keep super plugged in all the time. The company is doing very well, and not doing anything unexpected if anyone was following these forums in 2012 and 2013 (and presumably earlier).

So the marginal value of my contribution is quite low, and the marginal value of long delayed vacations to exotic locales is concurrently higher at this point.