Q4 2015 Delivery Prediction Competition

[Crowded Mind]

Please post your precise prediction for total Q4 deliveries. Feel free to specify X and S, but winner will be determined based on total. In the poll, please indicate the range that your guess falls within. Guess can be adjusted anytime before Tesla announces deliveries, and the poll will close after 1/2/16.

As a reminder, here is the outlook from the Q3 shareholder letter:

In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total deliveries for the year.

 

[dirkhh]

It's "fewer than 16,000", not "less than 16,000"
Fewer vs. less - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Forgot to add my precise forecast: 15,523

 

[mmccord]

20001

 

[bonaire]

Hitting 17000 is such a big jump, it's hard to imagine what would happen to the stock price if that is hit. I think analysts were always a bit hesitant to believe that such a jump could be made without some substantial Model X deliveries.

I'm still shooting for a number to hit my 2015 prediction contest estimate. So I am low and it is 14,690. That is a 26% increase over Q3. Quite good by most business standards. Denmark is the outlier and Model X Signatures were not as high as I think Tesla wanted to see when the quarter started. I'll probably be wrong by maybe 1000 but why not stick with my original estimate that I put down for the 2015 contest back in February.

 

[Troy]

15,387

Europe	5,317	(2037 units in Denmark)
Asia	2,235
Australia	72
North America	7,763
Total	15,387

Denmark
Oct: 113
Nov: 525
Dec: 1399 (my estimate)
Total: 2037

 

[pz1975]

18,132

 

[Cattledog]

19,370 deliveries.

 

[hobbes]

17,100

 

[SW2Fiddler]

19,150
Later revised to 19,220 in written report.

 

[Vger]

18,300

 

[PeterK]

17,850

 

[FredTMC]

17,850

Wow. The votes are really widely distributed for Q4. This'll be really interesting.

Mine is 17,550

 

[DaveT]

Wow. The votes are really widely distributed for Q4. This'll be really interesting.

Mine is 17,550

I'm right there with you. 17,500.

 

[sub]

18,247.66

 

[stoebs]

18,555

 

[Blip]

18242

 

[SebastianR]

17050 - with Denmark...

 

[ZachShahan]

Hoping to be positively surprised, but being cautious (I think) with... 17,013

 

[Fast Laner]

Btwn 17800 and 18100

 

[Benz]

17,750

At least 4,000 deliveries in California.