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Q4 2015 Delivery Prediction Competition

How many total deliveries will Tesla have in Q4 2015?

  • Total voters
  • Poll closed .

Crowded Mind

Oct 26, 2014
United States
Please post your precise prediction for total Q4 deliveries. Feel free to specify X and S, but winner will be determined based on total. In the poll, please indicate the range that your guess falls within. Guess can be adjusted anytime before Tesla announces deliveries, and the poll will close after 1/2/16.

As a reminder, here is the outlook from the Q3 shareholder letter:

Q3 Shareholder Letter said:
In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total deliveries for the year.

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 5.11.23 PM.png


Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
Hitting 17000 is such a big jump, it's hard to imagine what would happen to the stock price if that is hit. I think analysts were always a bit hesitant to believe that such a jump could be made without some substantial Model X deliveries.

I'm still shooting for a number to hit my 2015 prediction contest estimate. So I am low and it is 14,690. That is a 26% increase over Q3. Quite good by most business standards. Denmark is the outlier and Model X Signatures were not as high as I think Tesla wanted to see when the quarter started. I'll probably be wrong by maybe 1000 but why not stick with my original estimate that I put down for the 2015 contest back in February.


Active Member
Aug 24, 2015

Europe5,317(2037 units in Denmark)
North America7,763
Oct: 113
Nov: 525
Dec: 1399 (my estimate)
Total: 2037

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