TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Q4 2015 Delivery Prediction Competition

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Crowded Mind, Dec 26, 2015.

?

How many total deliveries will Tesla have in Q4 2015?

Poll closed Jan 2, 2016.
  1. Less than 16,000

    5.9%
  2. 16,000 - 16,499

    4.7%
  3. 16,500 - 16,999

    8.2%
  4. 17,000 - 17,499

    16.5%
  5. 17,500 - 17,999

    25.9%
  6. 18,000 - 18,499

    12.9%
  7. 18,500 - 18,999

    9.4%
  8. 19,000 - 19,499

    9.4%
  9. 19,500 - 19,999

    3.5%
  10. 20,000 or more

    3.5%
  1. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2014
    Messages:
    377
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Please post your precise prediction for total Q4 deliveries. Feel free to specify X and S, but winner will be determined based on total. In the poll, please indicate the range that your guess falls within. Guess can be adjusted anytime before Tesla announces deliveries, and the poll will close after 1/2/16.

    As a reminder, here is the outlook from the Q3 shareholder letter:

    Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 5.11.23 PM.png
     
  2. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    3,645
    Location:
    Portland, OR, USA
    #2 dirkhh, Dec 26, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2015
  3. mmccord

    mmccord Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2014
    Messages:
    765
    Location:
    Pine Bush, NY
  4. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,517
    Location:
    USA
    Hitting 17000 is such a big jump, it's hard to imagine what would happen to the stock price if that is hit. I think analysts were always a bit hesitant to believe that such a jump could be made without some substantial Model X deliveries.

    I'm still shooting for a number to hit my 2015 prediction contest estimate. So I am low and it is 14,690. That is a 26% increase over Q3. Quite good by most business standards. Denmark is the outlier and Model X Signatures were not as high as I think Tesla wanted to see when the quarter started. I'll probably be wrong by maybe 1000 but why not stick with my original estimate that I put down for the 2015 contest back in February.
     
  5. Troy

    Troy Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    447
    Location:
    15,387

    Europe5,317(2037 units in Denmark)
    Asia2,235
    Australia72
    North America7,763
    Total15,387
    Denmark
    Oct: 113
    Nov: 525
    Dec: 1399 (my estimate)
    Total: 2037
     
  6. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2013
    Messages:
    494
    Location:
    South Surrey, BC, Canada
  7. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2012
    Messages:
    1,708
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    #7 Cattledog, Dec 26, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2015
    19,370 deliveries.
     
  8. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    1,166
    Location:
    Germany
  9. SW2Fiddler

    SW2Fiddler Bannd Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2014
    Messages:
    1,693
    Location:
    Houston TX
    19,150
    Later revised to 19,220 in written report.
     
  10. Vger

    Vger Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2009
    Messages:
    1,683
    Location:
    Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada
  11. PeterK

    PeterK Model S Owner

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Messages:
    1,148
    Location:
    Cambridge, MA
  12. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2012
    Messages:
    3,003
    Location:
    Orange County CA
    Wow. The votes are really widely distributed for Q4. This'll be really interesting.

    Mine is 17,550
     
  13. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    I'm right there with you. 17,500.
     
  14. sub

    sub Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2013
    Messages:
    926
    Location:
    California
    18,247.66
     
  15. stoebs

    stoebs Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2013
    Messages:
    80
    Location:
    Honolulu, HI
  16. Blip

    Blip Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2013
    Messages:
    184
    Location:
    Norway
  17. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2013
    Messages:
    464
    Location:
    Denmark
    17050 - with Denmark...
     
  18. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2014
    Messages:
    497
    Location:
    Sarasota, FL / Wroclaw, Poland
    Hoping to be positively surprised, but being cautious (I think) with... 17,013
     
  19. Fast Laner

    Fast Laner Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2013
    Messages:
    151
    Location:
    EU
    Btwn 17800 and 18100
     
  20. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    17,750

    At least 4,000 deliveries in California.
     

Share This Page