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Q4 2015 Delivery Prediction Competition
- Thread starter Crowded Mind
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- TSLA
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
How exactly IF you expect 19000 deliveries ??
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haha ! 17,249.
. LolInteresting. Lots of unsubstantiated estimates and you want me to defend my estimate. There are lots of moving parts ( NA deliveries, foreign deliveries, CPO deliveries, X deliveries, etc). It's all a best guess at this point. Just like when I accepted delivery of my S , I believe in TSLA management. A win should be a win.
chickensevil
Active Member
You weren't the only 19k+ guess, so I am figuring the question was more on the 19001 linked to "win should feel like a win"
Although, 19001 is a beat on their most optimistic number... Maybe that is what was being questioned? I don't know...
I'm also in the 19k+ category just from emptying the pipeline alone I think there is easily 2k cars to be had in there if not more.
I am extremely bullish on TSLA LT and I seriously believe in Elon Musk 's engineering, managerial, marketing/product differentiation and strategic skills.
I am in TSLA for the LT and I am surprised that so many folks continue to focus on 2015 and 2106 , but I believe 2018 will be the huge game changer for TSLA LT.
Having said all of the above and given my prediction of 17k -17.5 K deliveries in 4Q 15, and despite what TSLA recently indicated to a Wall St analyst, I do NOT feel confident that TSLA will surpass 17 K deliveries in 4 Q 2015.
It's not just a non zero probability, it's non trivial as well, and I would say there is 1 in 3 chance they don't make 17 k.
Of course, this means that I believe there is 2/3 probability that they will exceed 17 K.
FWIW.
17,584
Ok, but seriously, it seems like production of both S and X are on track, deliveries are going 24/7 based on these forums, so it should be higher than the low end of the guidance. Still, going much higher (18-19k) seems like a very ambitious goal, especially with bad weather hitting the North-East of the US these days. Of course, if we end up coming in above 18k, I won`t complain about losing this bet.
Ok, but seriously, it seems like production of both S and X are on track, deliveries are going 24/7 based on these forums, so it should be higher than the low end of the guidance. Still, going much higher (18-19k) seems like a very ambitious goal, especially with bad weather hitting the North-East of the US these days. Of course, if we end up coming in above 18k, I won`t complain about losing this bet.
Gerardf
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
17,584
Ok, but seriously, it seems like production of both S and X are on track, deliveries are going 24/7 based on these forums, so it should be higher than the low end of the guidance. Still, going much higher (18-19k) seems like a very ambitious goal, especially with bad weather hitting the North-East of the US these days. Of course, if we end up coming in above 18k, I won`t complain about losing this bet.
What bad weather are you talking about? It's been mostly rain (granted, there has been a *lot* of rain). There was like, 1 snow storm that I was aware of, and while it came down hard and fast, it melted away just as fast as it showed up because the ground is so warm still. The North East is currently experiencing warmer weather than Florida and Texas. It was like 74 in the DC area yesterday
Unless you are talking about way north east, like Buffalo New York and Maine, where they always get tons of snow. But I also don't think those are likely to be areas where there is large enough delivery numbers to really cause a huge miss by thousands. It might impact on the order of 10s of deliveries, certainly I would anticipate less than 100.
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I'm sorry, I take it back, I forget that most people's definition of "North East" isn't the same as mine... which includes as west as Ohio, and as south as MD/DC.
Also, there is apparently a weather storm slated to cause a lot of havoc for the entirety of Penn/NY and on up to Maine Today/Tomorrow. But I still feel like this isn't likely to be enough to cause a major impact in the numbers. I would estimate less than 100 missed deliveries due to weather impact on the North East, since the only major market is New York/New Jersey. The VA/MD area should continue on just fine, TX might have had some issues due to the tornados and such they recently experienced. FL/GA should be fine. Unsure how major of a market Penn/Oh is, to speak to their impact over December. Outside of CA and maybe CO is there any other major market for Tesla in the US that I missed? So one area isn't so bad.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The weather here has been exceptionally warm and mild, with some extended periods of rain. Certainly nothing I would expect to significantly impede deliveries. There is a snow and rain mix moving in the next few days that could be a bit messy.
Benz
Active Member
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Your quip made ZERO sense to me - until I viewed the Web Version of the post, and saw the poll. (Weekends, I use Tapatalk on the Mobile Device [the tiny one, without wheels])
Agree. It's the opposite of the "FEWER CARBS!!1!" mistake usually seen in nice expensive ad campaigns which should know better!
What bad weather are you talking about? It's been mostly rain (granted, there has been a *lot* of rain). There was like, 1 snow storm that I was aware of, and while it came down hard and fast, it melted away just as fast as it showed up because the ground is so warm still. The North East is currently experiencing warmer weather than Florida and Texas. It was like 74 in the DC area yesterday
Unless you are talking about way north east, like Buffalo New York and Maine, where they always get tons of snow. But I also don't think those are likely to be areas where there is large enough delivery numbers to really cause a huge miss by thousands. It might impact on the order of 10s of deliveries, certainly I would anticipate less than 100.
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I'm sorry, I take it back, I forget that most people's definition of "North East" isn't the same as mine... which includes as west as Ohio, and as south as MD/DC.
Also, there is apparently a weather storm slated to cause a lot of havoc for the entirety of Penn/NY and on up to Maine Today/Tomorrow. But I still feel like this isn't likely to be enough to cause a major impact in the numbers. I would estimate less than 100 missed deliveries due to weather impact on the North East, since the only major market is New York/New Jersey. The VA/MD area should continue on just fine, TX might have had some issues due to the tornados and such they recently experienced. FL/GA should be fine. Unsure how major of a market Penn/Oh is, to speak to their impact over December. Outside of CA and maybe CO is there any other major market for Tesla in the US that I missed? So one area isn't so bad.
Yeah, I was referring to the weather that`s about to hit right now. I remembered this had a big impact in late 2014, but you are right with 3 days left of the year this should be negligible this time.
18,100
rationale: 3rd qtr earnings call takes place almost halfway through the 4th qtr so given they know to allow for a couple of weeks for deliveries/holidays they only need visibility for 4-6 weeks of production and therefore should be able to make pretty accurate estimate Hence, I believe EM knew what he was saying.
rationale: 3rd qtr earnings call takes place almost halfway through the 4th qtr so given they know to allow for a couple of weeks for deliveries/holidays they only need visibility for 4-6 weeks of production and therefore should be able to make pretty accurate estimate Hence, I believe EM knew what he was saying.
That's legitimate rationale. This quarter we have a special situation with X. Apparently a range was given to account for variability of X deliveries. Here is a relevant note by Deutsche Bank issued on Dec 8th.
"The Model X is finally in series production. We saw half a dozen production Model X’s (customer vehicles) during a quick pass through the company’s final assembly area," Lache explained. "However, we suspect that Tesla may only achieve the lower half of its 15,000-17,000 unit production target for 4Q15. The bounds of this production forecast were driven by low and high forecasts for Model X production, with the low end including almost no Model X’s. During Tesla’s Q3 conference call, Tesla management suggested that achieving the high end of the range (15,000 Model S’s and 2,000 Model X’s) was predicated on ramping up to several hundred Model X’s per week by mid-November. Had Tesla achieved this target, we would have expected Model X to account for 1 of every 4 vehicles on the company’s final assembly line. At the time of our visit, we very roughly estimated that Model X accounted for roughly 1 of every 15 vehicles in final assembly."
Here is the source link.
So far it looks like X deliveries have been well below mid-point expectation. So maybe Tesla will barely make 15K deliveries, unless S deliveries were push even harder, which I believe is hard to evaluate.
I have no clue to the final answer, So I didn't answer the poll.
"The Model X is finally in series production. We saw half a dozen production Model X’s (customer vehicles) during a quick pass through the company’s final assembly area," Lache explained. "However, we suspect that Tesla may only achieve the lower half of its 15,000-17,000 unit production target for 4Q15. The bounds of this production forecast were driven by low and high forecasts for Model X production, with the low end including almost no Model X’s. During Tesla’s Q3 conference call, Tesla management suggested that achieving the high end of the range (15,000 Model S’s and 2,000 Model X’s) was predicated on ramping up to several hundred Model X’s per week by mid-November. Had Tesla achieved this target, we would have expected Model X to account for 1 of every 4 vehicles on the company’s final assembly line. At the time of our visit, we very roughly estimated that Model X accounted for roughly 1 of every 15 vehicles in final assembly."
Here is the source link.
So far it looks like X deliveries have been well below mid-point expectation. So maybe Tesla will barely make 15K deliveries, unless S deliveries were push even harder, which I believe is hard to evaluate.
I have no clue to the final answer, So I didn't answer the poll.
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