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Q4 2017 Shareholder Letter
- Thread starter ConcordeSST
- Start date
sreams
Member
My estimator currently says this for AWD:
Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Choice of 220 or 310 mile range
sreams
Member
I don't believe Tesla will ever force the purchase of a software option like AP or FSD.
Folk said that about free supercharging too.
It makes sense when demand outstrips supply, especially when the cars are shipped with the hardware in place.
Even though they were specifically asked about their current rate of production on the Model 3 line they declined to go into any specifics. I really think those that were asking questions related to the Model 3 on that call could have come up with some much better questions.
What I do find very interesting though is I have not seen any mention of another push back of their current delivery estimates. The email that went out to reservation holders in November was sent on the same day as their conference call back then. No indication so far that they plan another across the board update to the delivery estimates. Not that I expect my Dec-Feb estimate to hold, but I’m still hopeful for at least a config invite before the end of this month.
Mine too. I should have looked before I made the comment.
I don't think I learned anything from the earnings call except fresh future promises.
Ok, thought I might have missed it. Somebody did ask this question. I think what I heard is that a new automated line is coming from Germany in the end of March, which will have output more than current 4(?) semi-automated lines and that's how they will achieve 2.5k/week. I.e. I'm guessing for the next month+ we will not see much of an output increase, which will be around 1k then? Anybody got a different impression?
If that's the case, I feel Q1 output will be around 12k or less, considering week off in Jan and another week w/ no news other than part recall.
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ℬête Noire
Active Member
They've update my estimate and I think you have your answer. SR is getting pushed back, waaaaay back. It's now saying AWD will be available before SR.
LR May-Jul 2018
AWD Late 2018
SR Early 2019
Wondering if owners who waited for SR will now jump on 1st production and push us back even more. I bet +1month
Btw, I wouldn't blame owners for this. I would blame the ramp.
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That was my understanding as far as timeline for the robotics from Germany. I was on the cusp of getting an invite (owner, calif. and I saw some TMC people got to configure a month or two before our reservation time so figured it would happen with the next group being my outside est. was Feb). Just got our update and now LR March-May 2018, AWD Late 2018, SR Early 2019. Previously LR Dec-Feb, AWD Aug-Oct 2018, SR Mid 2018. I have an old car, 2001, that I don't want to put any more money into and wondering how fast the new battery equipment, once installed and up and running will impact the schedules we have. So tempted to go with AWD but wondering what Late as opposed to Aug-Oct ultimately would mean.
Maybe Space X can send a FH over to Germany and air freight the robotics back to the Gigafactory. I'll bet Elon is wishing they could.
Ouch, even owners won't be covered in Feb. The consensus was that there was 2 more weeks to cover all remaining... I'm getting dangerously close to Fed credit starting to phase out. If that happens, I might be considering something cheaper than $60k configuration. A lot of people are getting upset.
I think the better definition is "fans burnout". I feel like with targets being pushed further and further away, I don't want to be "eagerly waiting", I probably need to switch into "I don't care" mode and check on this as rarely as possible and consider options only once they are in hand. I think this is a screw up from back in last year when they said ramp is delayed by 3 months, but bumped estimates by 1. If they bumped by 3 back then, I feel I wouldn't be upset as much now.
They would only save a month by doing that. The rest of the damage is done anyway. Plus 90mil cost (not considering a new launch pad in Germany), unlikely to make business sense.
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I'm not upset by the delay because I never thought production on it was going to be easy or on schedule, but am hoping to get my car before my old Avalon gives me any more trouble. Been having really bad experience with service on it and it's been to the dealership several times on the same issue.
Long story short the dealership worked on it, we went to pick it up only to find the passenger door had been dented and there was a big white paint scrape mark on the door at the dent. Luckily we spotted it before driving off otherwise they probably would have said we did it. So we left it there instead of driving home, they sent it to a body shop. They went through their video and found their staff person who hit the car, said they didn't even realize it. Find that hard to believe but whatever. Week later picked it up but when driving home now found our rear speaker is blown. We think probably happened at the body shop and not the dealership from playing music full blast but I'm so fed up I just want a new car already. Fortunately we have our Model S but I do feel for those of you who don't have a back up car while you wait.
Long story short the dealership worked on it, we went to pick it up only to find the passenger door had been dented and there was a big white paint scrape mark on the door at the dent. Luckily we spotted it before driving off otherwise they probably would have said we did it. So we left it there instead of driving home, they sent it to a body shop. They went through their video and found their staff person who hit the car, said they didn't even realize it. Find that hard to believe but whatever. Week later picked it up but when driving home now found our rear speaker is blown. We think probably happened at the body shop and not the dealership from playing music full blast but I'm so fed up I just want a new car already. Fortunately we have our Model S but I do feel for those of you who don't have a back up car while you wait.
Wondering if owners who waited for SR will now jump on 1st production and push us back even more. I bet +1month
Btw, I wouldn't blame owners for this. I would blame the ramp.
I think that there are a large number of reservations holders who have ability to configure but have not done so. The tax credit is surely one driver of behavior, but I don't think anyone knows how this will play out.
I'm not sure if I will wait for AWD. My decision will be based partly on the tax credit, partly on my comfort with car quality, and partly how Teslas future looks.
I don't expect Tesla to be capable of rapidly increasing production this year and maintain adequate quality.
This was the low point and something I'm sure concerns large investors. Tesla avoiding giving M3 january production, and then Musk brags about being the best. The worst aspects of Musks personality are similar to Trumpt.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Semi is only $20K deposit, right?
My understanding is that close to a 1000 is possible with the Roadster because of the number of people with "guaranteed option to buy into the in queue" exceptions available.
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