Q4: only 1,010 Model 3 in transit, HOW? Where did all cars go?

[Cloxxki]

Just a bit more than a day's production was left undelivered, is that what it means?
Where did over 5,000 units go that are unaccounted for? Export?
After Q3 there were 8,048 in transit. Buy how much could they realistically reduce that?

What's the catch? Did Model 3's become service fleet cars in stead of S and X sold? Might make sense financially to reduce the value locked into the service fleet. Make export wait a bit longer still :-D

Seriously, who picked up on this, what might this be about?

 

[dsvick]

Where do you get the 5,000 unaccounted for number?

It could be as simple as them shipping everything to locations further away from the factory and not delivering very many close to it until the final few days.

 

[Cloxxki]

Where do you get the 5,000 unaccounted for number?

It could be as simple as them shipping everything to locations further away from the factory and not delivering very many close to it until the final few days.

Q3 8K in transit, Q4 1K.
Production was Q3 56K, Q4 61K
Q4 deliveries 63K
8K+61K= 69K togo around in Q4
69K-63K-1K= 5K missing.

 

[ewoodrick]

I believe that there is an option between manufacturing and in-transit. That's sitting in the Fremont lot waiting to be picked up.
Hopefully they also gave the folks a little break for the holidays. It seems as if they've busted butt for the year, let them take a breath.

 

[Cloxxki]

I believe that there is an option between manufacturing and in-transit. That's sitting in the Fremont lot waiting to be picked up.
Hopefully they also gave the folks a little break for the holidays. It seems as if they've busted butt for the year, let them take a breath.

If you count it towards production, shouldn't you also count it toward in transit? Or was perhaps the logic changed like they changed accounting practices to make Q3 such a soundly profitable quarter?
Is there data for all produced and delivered Model 3's we could go by?

 

[Akikiki]

Why? What difference does it make? You are not responsible for inventory counting are you? I simply don't understand why you are interested.

 

[2012MS85]

I computed the same number, which I estimated are those 3s spread around the country as inventory or new store display models (with the beautiful white interior), or new test drive vehicles (since Elon stated all previous test drive 3s were being made available for sale). It’s still only about a week’s production.

 

[2012MS85]

Why? What difference does it make? You are not responsible for inventory counting are you? I simply don't understand why you are interested.

Numbers geeks and investors like me like to read 8k filings and then analyze the numbers to see if a story can be told about supply and demand (and whether one should buy more TSLA stock).

 

[Cloxxki]

I computed the same number, which I estimated are those 3s spread around the country as inventory or new store display models (with the beautiful white interior), or new test drive vehicles (since Elon stated all previous test drive 3s were being made available for sale). It’s still only about a week’s production.

It's possible that might contribute. But can you fathem there only be 1,010 Model 3 cars that have yet to be delivered from a production of 63K? Plus getting rid of ALL the 8,000+ from Q3 in transit?
Spreading 1,010 car over tracks on the road, distri centers and delivery centers in the US and CA, that spreads it really thinly.

At some point it should become profitable to sell every S and X in the loaner fleet and replace with a Short Range Model 3. That car should cost them $35K or less to make by now. What could the S and X fleet cars be sold for? those can't be reduced to zero, but plenty could be missed if replaced by a 3 now surely. But how many? And the overseas fleet might be roughly as large as the US one.

 

[thx1139]

I assume the plant was open on December 31st. So would all of them ship out in December 31st? Imagine that would be about 5K vehicles.

 

[Akikiki]

Why? What difference does it make? You are not responsible for inventory counting are you? I simply don't understand why you are interested.

Cloxxki, you flagged my comment as disagree. What is it you disagree with? Me asking you a question? Frankly, your disagreement does not make sense. I was simply asking a question.

 

[Cloxxki]

Cloxxki, you flagged my my comment as disagree. What is it you disagree with? Me asking you a question? Frankly, your disagreement does not make sense. I was simply asking a question.

You ask me whether I'm responsible for inventory. On a forum that obcesses about much smaller details than 5K cars seemingly unaccounted for. That kind of question formulation I offer the thumb down. If you are surprised by that, I cannot help you.

 

[Cloxxki]

I assume the plant was open on December 31st. So would all of them ship out in December 31st? Imagine that would be about 5K vehicles.

It takes them a full week of heroics to move a week's production. If you can make a logistics team up their game 7-fold for one day, I have very well paying jobs for you

 

[Compton]

Tesla's loaner fleet was too small. Tesla has at least 80 service centers in the USA. Distributed evenly, 5000 cars would be ~60 cars per service center. Plus the need for test drives and such. Couldn't this account for some of the cars?

 

[Dana1]

If you count it towards production, shouldn't you also count it toward in transit? Or was perhaps the logic changed like they changed accounting practices to make Q3 such a soundly profitable quarter?
Is there data for all produced and delivered Model 3's we could go by?

Accounting wise you have raw material, work in progress, and finished goods. Once a car has been paid for and delivered it becomes revenue. Unless you’re getting your numbers from a Tesla source I’d question the source material.

 

[Cloxxki]

Accounting wise you have raw material, work in progress, and finished goods. Once a car has been paid for and delivered it becomes revenue. Unless you’re getting your numbers from a Tesla source I’d question the source material.

Tesla numbers. They list produced, delivered and in transit. I can only see partially built cars as a good explanation. Starting export production a week early? Q1 could be spectacular then. But them, 1,010 is just too few cars for all of North America.
A crazy option would be recalling all cars without a prospective owner to be shipped to Europe as partial. Swap some parts there and they come back possibly as production but for sure deliveries.

 

[SMAlset]

Didn't they announce that they were starting to produce cars for Europe and China already? Would those vehicles be using both of the 2 assembly lines for the Model 3? There's got to be some down time for setting up for those lines. I should have asked about that during our plant tour to understand it better. Also I thought I read that cars going to Europe get assembled there, but to what degree?

When we were waiting for our Model S to go into production and I was checking in on the spreadsheet here it was clear that 1st month or two of the quarter the efforts went to the overseas market. Maybe the remaining cars left here in inventory will be used to fill U.S. orders that come in during the overseas production time, and a certain percentage of overage was planned for for that purpose?

 

[Cloxxki]

Expansion of the loaner fleet would indeed be a realistic drain on inventory I think. And with more SC's being opened per Elon's promise after he'd looked up coverage (why is that up to him?), more SC's need more loaners. Especially if local waiting lists are being taken on to be reduced.
Not selling 5,000 cars is a costly affair. Especially as they did not yet get around to make Short Range ones, $1,200-$1,500 per car extra. And the PUP interior to a similar cost.
And they may at the same time have sold S and X cars from inventory and service fleet which bring in more cash than a new 3MR cost to produce. 50/50? Any S in the fleet surely needs to be replaced by a 3 for cost reasons? In the beginning they couldn't do that would waiting 3 reservation holders locally and super high sales prices (high margin). Now that they are making $46K and even $44K cars with a profit and making exports wait as long as possible to optimize Q1 results, the perfect time. 2018 was going to make a loss anyway, best to take the pain now.

 

[voip-ninja]

This is an interesting question but one that has more validity being in the investor area.