Q4 Push with Supercharging? Hidden Reasons?

[dragonxt]

As you hopefully know, Tesla has said any car ordered before Jan 1st will be able to supercharge for free. This is definitely a tactic to push sales before the end of Q4. They did something similar in Q3, effectively screwing everyone over with the release of AP 2.0 soon after. What feature do you think Tesla will release at the start of the next quarter? Is it worth the risk of waiting? If you delay your delivery date, but order this year, do you think you may be able to take advantage of new features? Or would you at least be able to cancel and get your deposit back?

Let me know your thoughts.

 

[brkaus]

There are quite a few threads in the forum here with speculative new features.

Perhaps HUD is the biggest, but wouldn't expect until Q2.

 

[Dcr26]

You have to order by 12/31 but can take delivery as late as 4/1/17. If any mystery hardware announcement is made before then, you will have the new toys.

 

[brkaus]

You have to order by 12/31 but can take delivery as late as 4/1/17. If any mystery hardware announcement is made before then, you will have the new toys.

Choice for new toys. Who knows, they may force repricing to reconfigure.

 

[dragonxt]

Choice for new toys. Who knows, they may force repricing to reconfigure.

I don't mind paying, as long as I get it

 

[bonaire]

Only way it can work (as a big selling point for the push in Q4) is if a prohibitive pricing on the per-kWh is published now. Such as 20-cents or more per kWh "or you can buy now!" type of scenario. I think a lot of people who bought previously did so with the "free fuel for life" aspect of SC'ing. Per-kWh pricing is also needed now to know how they will treat Model 3 sales and the pricing of the supercharging network for the Model 3 buyers. Evolution of the TCO (Total cost of Ownership) model needs to be made so that people can properly plan their future.

I believe AP 2.0 should have been introduced at the same time as "throttled SuperCharging" so that you "get while you give". Get AP 2.0 but then start to pay for supercharging at the same time.

I think substantive discounting is really needed to help get to a similar sales figure as Q3. Q3 saw $30k discounting on classic fascia P90DL and $7500 discounting on 75s. Pretty aggressive.

 

[Vitold]

[...]

I think substantive discounting is really needed to help get to a similar sales figure as Q3. Q3 saw $30k discounting on classic fascia P90DL and $7500 discounting on 75s. Pretty aggressive.

Discounts you quote on P90DL were aggressive but applied to very few vehicles. In other words, flash in a pan. Discounts on 75D were offered on highly optioned models, with higher margins and mostly on inventory models - those that were bound to loose some value anyway after AP2.0 introduction.

 

[bonaire]

Discounts you quote on P90DL were aggressive but applied to very few vehicles. In other words, flash in a pan. Discounts on 75D were offered on highly optioned models, with higher margins and mostly on inventory models - those that were bound to loose some value anyway after AP2.0 introduction.

In my neighborhood, there were 11 P90DL with such discounts available on the lot in Q3. ($330K of discounting) So, that's just at one sales location. Those Vin #s were assigned right about 3/30/16 which were part of that statement of "45% more Model S orders than Q1 of 2015".

 

[cmorgan]

As you hopefully know, Tesla has said any car ordered before Jan 1st will be able to supercharge for free. This is definitely a tactic to push sales before the end of Q4. They did something similar in Q3, effectively screwing everyone over with the release of AP 2.0 soon after. What feature do you think Tesla will release at the start of the next quarter? Is it worth the risk of waiting? If you delay your delivery date, but order this year, do you think you may be able to take advantage of new features? Or would you at least be able to cancel and get your deposit back?

Let me know your thoughts.

It wouldn't make sense for them to announce AP 2.0 before running down inventory, or people might not purchase the existing cars. The AP 2.0 hardware does come with a price increase, and any AP 1.0 cars continue to work as they used to, so there isn't a loss of functionality for AP 1.0 cars due to AP 2.0 coming out.

I can understand the emotional response when something new comes out. The new thing doesn't take away from the utility of the old thing. It may reduce resale value slightly but would you rather Tesla not make improvements?

The supercharging changes seem directly related to preparing for the Model 3. The current approach doesn't price appropriately for different users and the current cost is pretty high for a ~$35,000 car. Not seeing any sales push agenda there.

 

[bonaire]

It wouldn't make sense for them to announce AP 2.0 before running down inventory, or people might not purchase the existing cars. The AP 2.0 hardware does come with a price increase, and any AP 1.0 cars continue to work as they used to, so there isn't a loss of functionality for AP 1.0 cars due to AP 2.0 coming out.

I can understand the emotional response when something new comes out. The new thing doesn't take away from the utility of the old thing. It may reduce resale value slightly but would you rather Tesla not make improvements?

The supercharging changes seem directly related to preparing for the Model 3. The current approach doesn't price appropriately for different users and the current cost is pretty high for a ~$35,000 car. Not seeing any sales push agenda there.

Supercharger rights changes for S and X don't make way for the Model 3, really. The S and X are attractive because they have had "free fuel for life". The Model 3 will probably not (by default). So, removing the "free fuel" capability of the S and X will push people to the Model 3 to save money, I suspect. Then revenue is impacted by this push-down. I would say leave free fuel for life in the S and X and just start to prepare people for Model 3 to have a moderately priced per-kWh recharging option with "enabling fee" added on. Or you can go "without supercharger" as a default mode in the Model 3. Removing the unlimited causes the S and X to be slightly less attractive longer-term.

 

[Saghost]

The only one we're pretty sure of is the 100D. At any time Tesla chooses, they could add a 14 module version of the 100 as well as or instead of the 75 - it'd presumably be in the 85-90 range.

There's good reason to think a HUD might show up, but no definitive evidence of it.

Later in the year I expect to see higher capacity packs as they start using 2170 cells instead of 18650s - maybe 95 and 110? or 105 and 120?

 

[MP3Mike]

At any time Tesla chooses, they could add a 14 module version of the 100 as well as or instead of the 75 - it'd presumably be in the 85-90 range.

But we don't know anything about the structure of the current 100kWh pack do we? Is it still made up from 16 modules? I thought they said that they completely redesigned the internals.

Later in the year I expect to see higher capacity packs as they start using 2170 cells instead of 18650s - maybe 95 and 110? or 105 and 120?

I doubt that will happen, as all 2170 cells will probably be used for TE and the Model 3. (For at least the first year if not 2.)

 

[Saghost]

But we don't know anything about the structure of the current 100kWh pack do we? Is it still made up from 16 modules? I thought they said that they completely redesigned the internals.

I thought they changed the module design, including cooling especially, but kept the 16 modules. It'd be a lot harder to do any other way if they kept the current envelope with the front bulge, though not impossible certainly.

However they segregated the modules, though, they could presumably easily build a 350V version like the current small battery cars.

(A dislike for that, really?)

 

[xborg]

Hello,
There are many rumors about upcoming changes, you may wanna check this thread: 100d is coming soon

However, the main reason behind supercharging update timing is 2015 Q4, and mainly 2017 Q1 rush. As it is clearly stated that the car should be delivered before April.

Cheers.

 

[shokunin]

I doubt that will happen, as all 2170 cells will probably be used for TE and the Model 3. (For at least the first year if not 2.)

The 2170's are probably going to start production early 2017. There's a Gigafactory event already scheduled in January so they will be revealing something. They need to ensure that they can scale 2170 output and chemistry. TE has a different chemistry so they would need to produce 2170's for the S or X ahead of the 3 launch.

There's also talk of new drive unit production at the gigafactory, which may also mean new more efficient, better performing drive units in the S and X. Again to validate mfg and ensure the processes can scale when it's time to ramp the 3.

I expect there will be quarterly sales tactics until the 3 is launched.

 

[brianman]

There's a Gigafactory event already scheduled in January so they will be revealing something.

I missed something. Which event?

 

[Canuck]

I missed something. Which event?

Tesla to hold a special event at the Gigafactory on January 4, 2017

 

[Gwgan]

Also the current incentive program ends Jan 15. I don't expect any significant product changes until afte that date.

Sales called me in response to a letter with questions about the new Supercharging plan. They didn't have a lot of answers yet but I appreciated that they took the time to discuss it. I asked why make the announcement now when the program is not yet fully detailed and he effectively said because they are trying to do things a little different to reduce disappointment with abrupt product changes.
Maybe the announcement timing is nothing more than this but honestly I do think it is about pushing out cars in 2016 before some significant updates coming in January.

 

[brkaus]

Also the current incentive program ends Jan 15. I don't expect any significant product changes until afte that date.

Sales called me in response to a letter with questions about the new Supercharging plan. They didn't have a lot of answers yet but I appreciated that they took the time to discuss it. I asked why make the announcement now when the program is not yet fully detailed and he effectively said because they are trying to do things a little different to reduce disappointment with abrupt product changes.
Maybe the announcement timing is nothing more than this but honestly I do think it is about pushing out cars in 2016 before some significant updates coming in January.

Given the requirement to take delivery q4'16 or q1'17, I'm not sure it's a 2016 thing.

It is good that they are signaling early.

It's probably also about leaks. Once they go beyond high level, more people need to be pulled in. So releasing early gives a uniform release, although lacking detail.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In my neighborhood, there were 11 P90DL with such discounts available on the lot in Q3. ($330K of discounting) So, that's just at one sales location. Those Vin #s were assigned right about 3/30/16 which were part of that statement of "45% more Model S orders than Q1 of 2015".

Tesla announced the P100DL in late August. They needed to dump the P90DLs.