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Q4'16 Delivery Estimates

What is your Q4'16 Delivery Estimate?


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    166
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30,970.

In 2016, from Q2-Q4 TSLA delivered about 700 more cars than produced due to the shipping pipeline, inventory, etc.

In 2016, Q1-Q3 TSLA has delivered 54,033 cars and produced 59,040, a 5,000 car delta. If we assume TSLA produces as many cars in Q4 as Q3 and delivers them (last two weeks of production going to California deliveries), they would would produce 25,185 and deliver them, clean out the pipeline (add about 5,000) and they do approximately what they did last year which is deliver 800 more than produced in Q2-Q4 (that part is just my squishy hope) you get over 30,000 deliveries and so I throw out 3,0970 which gets us to 85,003.

Which I think Elon would like to hit.

Remember, they could in theory make as many as 2,400 cars/week x 13 weeks = 31,200, so assuming 25,185 is pretty conservative.
 
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