Ameliorate
Member
averaged the crowd wisdom thus far, tallied 32 votes for a mean of 25,952 thus far. Not bad!
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Sudre
Active Member
dandurston
Member
I would have thought jelloslug's guess of 1 million would have brought it up higher than this.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The Keef wivanef guy, a well known troll rummaging through junk/scrap yards for Teslas
25,968 deliveries (as in what it takes to get to 80k +1)
Of course, they should pull a hell of a December out of the hat to make that happen.
Of course, they should pull a hell of a December out of the hat to make that happen.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
27623,
SP opens at $24x, where x=1-4 and goes to high 240s or low 250s that same day on 10M+ volume
SP opens at $24x, where x=1-4 and goes to high 240s or low 250s that same day on 10M+ volume
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
New running average 26035
oops, bonaire brought it back to 25951
oops, bonaire brought it back to 25951
Still tracking via sites like this: Tesla Registration Stats
and it's a moderate barometer when supplemented by EV Sales and the guesswork at Inside EVs - Electric Vehicle News, Reviews, and Reports along with Vin # tracking folks (I have a bunch). Lot of talk of US deliveries right now and "lots of cars at sales/service centers" but folks are not qualifying the units whether the window sticker says "Customer", "Marketing" or "Inventory". So the same review must be done on 1/1/17 or later to see what's left at these sites.
December must be extraordinary in all measures to be near most of the estimates above.
I think folks like the guy you mentioned above (Logical Thought) and even I underestimated back at the start of the year - but the estimating done then was based on what products were available at the time and the slow-start of the Model X with its FWD problems, etc. A 10-12% upside on those estimates looks like what will happen due to MS70, MS/MX 60, P100D and the new fascia (customers need to upgrade to look like having the latest model). Objectively, lots of levers for demand stimulation were pulled. And now AP 2.0 new hardware requires a full machine upgrade rather than keeping the old car and getting a software upgrade - where in the past "the car just gets upgraded with OTA downloads" is not working for the newer auto pilot which is still evolving. This may mean that unless similar levers pulled in 2017, the whole year really focuses in on the Model 3 rollout.
and it's a moderate barometer when supplemented by EV Sales and the guesswork at Inside EVs - Electric Vehicle News, Reviews, and Reports along with Vin # tracking folks (I have a bunch). Lot of talk of US deliveries right now and "lots of cars at sales/service centers" but folks are not qualifying the units whether the window sticker says "Customer", "Marketing" or "Inventory". So the same review must be done on 1/1/17 or later to see what's left at these sites.
December must be extraordinary in all measures to be near most of the estimates above.
I think folks like the guy you mentioned above (Logical Thought) and even I underestimated back at the start of the year - but the estimating done then was based on what products were available at the time and the slow-start of the Model X with its FWD problems, etc. A 10-12% upside on those estimates looks like what will happen due to MS70, MS/MX 60, P100D and the new fascia (customers need to upgrade to look like having the latest model). Objectively, lots of levers for demand stimulation were pulled. And now AP 2.0 new hardware requires a full machine upgrade rather than keeping the old car and getting a software upgrade - where in the past "the car just gets upgraded with OTA downloads" is not working for the newer auto pilot which is still evolving. This may mean that unless similar levers pulled in 2017, the whole year really focuses in on the Model 3 rollout.
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^I agree with Bonaire here... Q3 had a lot of indications that shipments would be outstanding. I do sense a lack of such indications this quarter.
If we do meet the H2 50k guidance, it will be an amazing sign as it would show Tesla can deliver 25k cars/quarter at steady state w/o significant discounting or cheerleading emails from the CEO.
Now that would be a real pie on the faces of shorts and Wall St. But the question remains, will it be 25k this quarter? We'll find out in a week
If we do meet the H2 50k guidance, it will be an amazing sign as it would show Tesla can deliver 25k cars/quarter at steady state w/o significant discounting or cheerleading emails from the CEO.
Now that would be a real pie on the faces of shorts and Wall St. But the question remains, will it be 25k this quarter? We'll find out in a week
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