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Quantifying the wait...

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I just thought of this:

backward_in_time.png


xkcd: Backward in Time
 
You have an S4 and in eight years have only driven 25,000 miles? That's less than nine miles a day on average. Why spend a helluva lot of money for a car like an S4 if you hardly use it? Nine miles a day - that's hardly worth buying a bike for ;-P

Car-dependent area, I assume.

There's a lot of the US where it's unsafe to even cross the road outside your front door, let alone walk or bike along it. (55 mph! no light! no sidewalk! no crosswalk! no bike path!) And for the occasional longer trip it's even worse; there is often NO train service, and the bus service is abominable; and who wants to deal with the TSA to travel by air?

This situation may leave one thinking "Do I get a cheap car for my nine-mile commute *and* rent a more comfortable car for longer trips, or do I get an expensive car?" It's different in Germany.
 
Not really. The reason so few miles on the S4 is that I a) have a short commute (3.3 miles), and b) have a second vehicle that I use for about 60% of my driving.

When not doing car pool drop off duty for my daughter, and when the weather is decent, I sometimes bike to work too, but that's only a 2-3 times a month.

Car-dependent area, I assume.

There's a lot of the US where it's unsafe to even cross the road outside your front door, let alone walk or bike along it. (55 mph! no light! no sidewalk! no crosswalk! no bike path!) And for the occasional longer trip it's even worse; there is often NO train service, and the bus service is abominable; and who wants to deal with the TSA to travel by air?

This situation may leave one thinking "Do I get a cheap car for my nine-mile commute *and* rent a more comfortable car for longer trips, or do I get an expensive car?" It's different in Germany.
 
To further quantify my wait, I dropped off my Audi S4 to the dealer this morning for what I assumed would be a relatively inexpensive coolant leak repair bill. Just got the call from the service writer that it needs a new water pump and the valve cover is leaking oil. $2,500 to repair. On a car that has 25,000 miles.

Two lessons: Never assume repairing a German automobile will be inexpensive. And damn I hate ICE components...


What a coincidence. I took my S4 in last week for its 60K maintenance ($390), and got a call telling me that another eight things "needed to be addressed." Total for the work they recommended? $4700 - including a "valve cover leaking oil." And of course this was the first service visit out of warranty (I had purchased an extension). Bastages. September/October can't come soon enough.
 
Let's not get carried away...Tesla stated in the shareholder letter:

Model S development and testing remain on schedule to commence deliveries by July of this year.

That could be one car on July 31st, or could be as we hope 100 cars on June 30th....

Having said that, I expect that the RC's will be out mid-April so they should have the configurator up soon. :biggrin:
 
Let's not get carried away...Tesla stated in the shareholder letter:



That could be one car on July 31st, or could be as we hope 100 cars on June 30th....

Having said that, I expect that the RC's will be out mid-April so they should have the configurator up soon. :biggrin:

I've always taken "by July" to mean by the first of July. Could be wishful thinking, but that's how I've always interpreted it. It could definitely mean early July, but I doubt you'd say "by July" if you meant the end of July.
 
I've always taken "by July" to mean by the first of July. Could be wishful thinking, but that's how I've always interpreted it. It could definitely mean early July, but I doubt you'd say "by July" if you meant the end of July.
You're in software, so you're familiar with how a date range is always the last possible minute in that range :).

"Ship 3rd quarter? Sure, we'll target September 30th!"
 
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I think Elon has a secret delivery start date in May. It's the way he says it in his tone and thoughtful hesitation.

Not only would it thrill reservation holders but show naysayers they can actually beat expectations.

Classic underpromise.


Of course if there is a problem they have a buffer to work with.
 
Just to give Eric a little to run with...
Does anybody recall which forum members (this forum or the company forum) have the lowest Sig reservations (SSL and S)?

Edit:
Looks like Jaff has (had?) S5...or SS5.

So we should know pretty quick when he gets the "time to configure" e-mail.
 
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