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quarterly production/delivery numbers?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Waiting43, Apr 3, 2019.

  1. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    If you can't engage with people on this forum respectfully, I'll leave it to you to figure out whats wrong with your statement. Good bye.
     
  2. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    You replied with an answer to a different question about deliveries when I'm talking about production and tried to patronise me regarding Raven. I explained the question again and rather than trying to understand, you started quoting sales figures again from Q1 as a justification for no production in the last couple of weeks on Q2, which again makes no sense. The same therefore goes for you. If you don't know the answer to a question and you are not prepared to discuss it, then perhaps its best you don't answer.

    Anyone else? This is the investor discussion area and if there is no evidence of production for a 3-4 period of MS and MX that will have some impact on the numbers in the quarter. I suspect MS and MX sales have been strong with the incentives such as reintroduction of unlimied supercharging but driven by a desire to clear inventory only. The killer question is if this has happened, is this purely a short term cash drive or is it making way for a much speculated refresh that will have much longer term share price benefits?
     
  3. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29, M3P 80k

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    You say "if there is no evidence of production" as if this is evidence that there was no production. That's a howling logical error, if nothing else. We know there was a period of reduced production in Q1, as they switched to Raven, but there is no evidence of reduced production in Q2 that I've heard about. People are still reporting deliveries. There might have been reduced S/X deliveries at the beginning of Q2 because of an air bubble in the European and Chinese S/X delivery pipeline, but that says nothing about either demand or production.

    Do you have any evidence at all of reduced S/X production in Q2?
     
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  4. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    #24 GeorgeSymonds, Jun 24, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2019
    I appreciate "there is no evidence of production" is not the same as "there is no production" which is why I'm asking the question

    Threads like this (post 683 and 684) where people are being messed around with dates, some ordering back in April and seemingly still waiting for delivery.

    Time of delivery

    There is also a global low number of inventory cars on ev-cpo, tesla-info and tslastats, maybe not unusual in itself as it happens,

    Add in the fact that Tesla were pushng unlimited supercharging on all inventory to try and push inventory sales really hard to get rid of them.

    Maybe they have done the usual build and sell numbers plus lots of extra inventory sales to give a great number, and not releasing Raven to inventory has made that easier to sell, but given they usually build quite a few cars for inventory, if they stopped that and only built to order, then the numebrs are likely to have fallen.

    We also have the much rumoured facelift that some think will happen.

    Its an open question as I don't know, it just seems a little odd, and if you were going to launch a facelift, clearing out your inventory while you hold off production and reconfigure for a new car design would be how you did it.
     
  5. Spacemanspliff

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    Going off forums isn’t going to give you a true sense of production levels, especially in May.

    Reasons for that:

    -Numerous homologation issues (specifically NY and CA that have held deliveries back till 2nd half of June and it’s even been mentioned in the Netherlands.)
    -Early production in the first few weeks of May could have been loaded onto boats to Europe and China and we wouldn’t hear about it until 2nd half of June/July. China we won’t hear about it much at all.

    What we know:

    -Musk and co stated production of Raven S/X wouldn’t be up to prior quarters till maybe EOQ.
    -Haven’t heard them hire back the 2nd shift yet.

    It all suggests S/X production isn’t beyond 15k a quarter at the moment. Maybe they are waiting to flush inventory and for the new design in a couple months, but who knows.
     
  6. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    I don't expect a S/X facelift. They will probably update the interior late this year, but they lengthened their tooling (e.g. body die) depreciation schedule which would not be kosher if they were about to scrap them. Besides, they've been in no position to buy another 800m worth of S/X dies.

    They apparently combined S and X production into a single line in early-mid May to free up space for Model Y. It makes sense to fold Raven changes into this process. Figure a week of downtime followed by a ramp. They said they won't get back to a 100k/year rate this quarter. I expect 13-16k production, 4-6k being pre-Raven.

    Some customers received their Ravens, some have deliveries scheduled and some are still waiting for VINs. I don't think it's possible to get useful insights on production from the late-quarter delivery chaos.

    They had 12k+ pre-Ravens in Finished Goods Inventory on 3/31 (plus 1600 in PP&E). Add the 4-6k I estimate they make before the switch. They've been discounting and throwing in free Supercharging. Tesla doesn't expose their entire inventory online so I hesitate to draw conclusions from listings, but it seems they've mostly cleared out US pre-Raven inventory. They're still clearing it out in Europe (e.g. 50+ pre-Ravens in Norway today). I heard of one Euro-Raven but that might be fake news. China is a black box, as always. They could deliver 15k+ pre-Ravens in Q2 and another 5-6k Ravens, but my guess is they'll come in around 18k total and we'll never know the split.
     
  7. Spacemanspliff

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    There’s been confirmed euro deliveries, also noticeably some Norway Model X in the past two or so days have been delivered with the model type left blank, (possible Ravens?).
     
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  8. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    Great info - thanks

    There were definitely plenty of Raven cars in Europe as the Vins were published at the time back in April/May assuming its code SU03 for the adaptive suspension. This MX has also appeared today - maybe its a cancelled order - although a 160xxx vin were quite common back in May which ties in with the theory of a batch back them

    Tesla Info: 2019 MX Long Range in Holland listed at € 101118

    I suspect you're right, they've just slowed up production as they've combined the lines and had a tidy up up of the stock sitting around.
     
    • Informative x 1
  9. tentonine

    tentonine Member

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    I have been looking at EV-CPO regularly recently. US S inventory has been on a steady decline to almost nothing, so it is unlikely that thereis any hidden pre-Raven inventory remaining. On the other hand, European hidden S inventory may still be quite large - twice in the last month the EV-CPO listings have gradually declined to around 100 units, then suddenly jumped 100-150 units higher again. So Tesla may still have significant hidden inventory that is being used to regularly increase the public-facing inventory in Europe whenever it declines.
     
  10. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    Or maybe its a boat arriving - the time from manufacture to arrival in Europe can be anything up to 4 weeks for MS and MX so even cars manufactured in May could be arriving now.
     
  11. tentonine

    tentonine Member

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    That would normally be a good explanation, but these are not Raven cars and I doubt any pre-Raven cars have still been arriving on boats in the last couple of weeks.
     
  12. tentonine

    tentonine Member

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    Or maybe I'm wrong - a lot of the cars have high VIN numbers, probably from immediately prior to the Raven refresh, so they could well be new arrivals as you suggest. It's odd that pre-Raven could still be arriving after post-Raven, but then even a delay of just a couple of weeks in processing these cars after arrival would account for it.
     
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  13. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    I believe they built 4-6k pre-Ravens in April and early May, and sent 1k++ to Europe on the early ships. The last ship or two had Ravens, no idea how many.

    ~50 S/X demos and loaners with miles on them hit US inventory this week. More evidence they basically sold out of new US pre-Ravens.
     
  14. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    I think they've just released hundreds of new inventory cars (157 MX alone in the US), I'm guessing they've either restarted production or as there's not much time now to buy and take delivery before the end of quarter, they may as well if they were holding them back
     
  15. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    This is probably end-of-quarter rush stuff -- I suspect they're releasing everything to inventory, including cars which were supposed to be going to customers who are too far away to take delivery by the end of the month. This leaves a bad taste in my mouth, since it leads to multi-week delays for those customers in order to "dress up" the deliveries report for Wall Street, but there is evidence from Musk's leaked email that they are doing exactly this.

    They're certainly releasing all the loaners and showroom models.
     
  16. Fiver

    Fiver Active Member

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    At this point this tactic is now an end of quarter tradition. I'm not in the market for a new Tesla, but if I ever do buy one again, for sure I'm waiting until the EoQ, as the best deals pop up then.

    The more people who know this, the bigger problem it will be for the already strained delivery teams.
     
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  17. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    If I remember correctly, Musk or Tesla actually said they wouldn't be back up to full production rate of S/X in April, but they would in June. I've been assuming this was accurate.
     
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  18. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but OP actually thinks they had completely stopped making S/X all these months.
     
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  19. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    I presume you're referring to me although I'm not the OP of the thread.

    I didn't say months, I said a number of weeks and maybe a (singular) month, if you're going to ignore what was said and/or asked then you're contributions are a little pointless.

    I was looking for evidence to see if that was in deed the case, it seemed a reasonable question to me, sadly not to EVNow
     
  20. DracarysShort

    DracarysShort New Member

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    Could you share your source for EU delivery number?
     

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