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quarterly production/delivery numbers?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Waiting43, Apr 3, 2019.

  1. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    Zach's words in the April call:
    "...we will exit Q2 at a higher production rate than we did in Q1 on S and X and then return back to a more normal volume in Q3. It’s already increasing."​

    Of course he never said what rate they exited Q1, so this is pretty useless info. Still, I've heard nothing of a second shift re-hire and I'm learning to filter "Mr. Filling Ships 100%" pretty heavily, so I'd guess the Q1 exit rate was 1000/week or less and the current rate is slightly better.
     
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  2. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    In Q4 ER, EM & Deepak (unless it was Q1 and I'm misremembering) said they see 80k as the demand for S&X going forward. So, the "normal volume" for S&X would be only 1,500/wk.

    The mix will probably tilt heavily towards X going forward - so may be 5k S, 15k X is the new quarterly "normal volume" ?
     
  3. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    I don't recall them saying 80k demand, would be very interested in that quote.

    In the "secret" call Musk said they'd make 70-100k S/X this year while knowing they'd make less than 15k in Q1. 70k implies a 15/15/20/20k pattern, 100k optimistically implies 15/25/30/30k.
     
  4. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    Anton Wahlman's Q2 delivery forecast is up, broken down by Model and country:
    Tesla On Track For 88,000 Units Sold In Q2 - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

    He's at 24k for Europe, much higher than me, and 54k in North America which I feel is way too low. His 88k total is probably a bit low, but China is a crapshoot so anything is possible.

    Wahlman is a notorious bear, but his EOQ delivery estimates are data-driven. He nailed Q1 when all of us were WAY too high.
     
  5. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    How did he do in Q3 & Q4 ?

    I know a lot of shorts were close in Q1 - if someone is always on the pessimistic side, once in a while they will be right ! Troy's estimate spreadsheet is interesting. The bears that got Q1 close, had Q2 numbers even lower / similar to Q1 !
     
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  6. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    I don't remember him doing detailed breakdowns last year.

    He always starts way below guidance because he's biased, but he adjusts his numbers as actual data comes in. I'm more interested in his breakdowns, which combine varied data sources in one place. It's easy to substitute in your own estimates for the entries that don't have actual data yet.

    For example, June NO+NL+SP Model 3 will come in about 67% of March. Anton assumes the other European countries will do 94% of March's level. Assuming 67% instead, plus a few hundred extra for UK gives me an estimate 2000 below his. On the other hand, his 4000 Q2 estimate for S/X in Europe looks possible. NO+NL+SP are +40% vs. Q1 and the other countries April/May were running ahead of Jan/Feb.

    I now think Europe will beat my earlier 20k estimate by 1k or possibly even 2k.

    North America is a bit of a mystery. The "bonus" leak implied 63-66k for Q2, but 49k through June 24 is well below those levels. 60k is my best guess, could be off 5k either direction.
     
  7. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    #47 EVNow, Jun 28, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2019
    It would be interesting to check after the reports come out how well the estimates by country & model did vs actuals. I'm somewhat skeptical of using known country growth / ratio numbers to estimate unknowns in EU - but there isn't really a better method, I guess.

    The other thing is his S + X estimate is 16k. I've 15k, but with a different mix (6+9 instead of 7.5+8.5).
    BTW, here is Troy's Q1 spreadsheet. The people with best estimates were low-balling Q2 (and next 4 quarters) Model 3 deliveries.

    TroyQ1Est.PNG

    For the record, the Q2 estimate is currently 87.7k.
     
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  8. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    #48 EVNow, Jun 28, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2019
    This is all I can find in the transcript. But, what I remember is at that time Deepak chimed in to say 80k - but that is not in the transcript. Will have to listen to the call again - its the first question they took.

    Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

    ps : Apparently not at that point. I'll have to listen to the whole thing.
     
  9. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    Thanks for checking but don't waste more time on it - what they said five months ago no longer matters much anyway. They're clearly adjusting on the fly to a situation that remains fluid.
     
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  10. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Anyway, removing shifts clearly says where they think the demand is at.
     
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  11. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    First country beyond SP/NO/NL in Europe for which we have data is Sweden. It's an interesting one. We have 524 Model 3's for June which brings total Q2 deliveries about 10% higher than Q1. But also a big increase in S/X (209/86) which basically triples deliveries from Q1 into Q2. It's a very early trend, but it may not be impossible to top Q1 deliveries and have a gross margin mix that holds up quite well.
     
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  12. vickh

    vickh Member

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    Per AZ delivery manager, they had a record on Sat.
     
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  13. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    52% of March Model 3 sales is a very low result, but I think Sweden is a a special case as logistical problems resulted in zero February sales. I'm not going to extrapolate that 52% elsewhere, even Norway exceeded 52% and it didn't get any SR+ in June.

    I'm less confident about margins. Norway's huge reversal in S/X ratio looks like pre-Raven inventory clearance to me. Europe also started seeing Model 3 mix shift by mid-Q2.
     
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  14. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    +1. Exactly the reason why I compared quarter to quarter instead of month to month. Sweden was extremely backloaded Q1.

    But even a pre-Raven inventory sale should fetch comparable margins than an LR Model 3, no?
     
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  15. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    Q/Q gets messed up by the outsized spillover from Q1 into April. I don't expect a repeat, though there does seem to be ample LR inventory in Europe to support July "walk-ins".

    I think May+June vs. Feb+Mar can give us some insights on future trends.

    In absolute dollars, but not as a percentage IMHO. The inventory trackers showed plenty of 15-20% discounts, and free Supercharging also reduces margins.
     
  16. Wooloomooloo

    Wooloomooloo Member

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    I don't think bears will be under-estimating deliveries at this point, as it would mean anything higher than that undermines the bear thesis - he might be right and I've seen that 88k number a couple of times. TBH it won't help or hinder the stock at this point - below 85k or above 92k might move the needle, but it does make the annual estimates of 360k - 400k look unlikely.
     
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  17. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    If you see how gradual the deliveries in April all the way up to mid May were, I am not sure there was a big genuine spill-over. To me the pattern felt already like regular ongoing-sales.

    Personally I am looking forward to what the UK has to bring, the new round of ships coming to EU of course and finally the big one : what raven is doing in terms of restoring S/X demand. In terms of becoming profitable it is absolutely clear to me that Tesla needs to return to something like 20k/quarter with 20%+ margins. Not just that, I needs to get the cash generation machine back in higher gear too. There is a $180M term loan and a $550M convertible coming up!

    Ok. Appreciate the insight.​
     
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  18. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    The problem with the inventory trackers discount is it was against the list price at the time of manufacture and not against the current list price, so if the prices fall, any corresponding adjustment to inventory prices appears as a discount, its still a discount just maybe not as big as you think compared to list. One of the trackers is being honest about that.
     
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  19. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    Good point. I think there were three things:
    1. Logistics spill over of ~2k cars. Filled by 4/12.
    2. "Cosmetic reject" spill over of ~1k cars. Spread into early May as repairs took time.
    3. Ongoing sales of a few hundred per week. ​

    The most spillover was in places like Germany, Sweden and Switzerland where April Model 3 sales significantly exceeded May. But even the daily NO+NL+SP chart shows a slowdown after 4/12.
    Yes, certainly. But I figure S/X gross margin was ~30% based on original list price. COGS for those cars sitting on lots do not decline just because newer cars are being built and marketed for less.
     
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  20. Fred42

    Fred42 Member

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    Remember the Q1 inventory write-down. I think discounts affect Q2 margin only to the extent they are more or less than the reduction already applied.
     

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