Supercharger - Quartzsite, AZ

[gnuarm]

Wrong.
1. You can't just look at the location count. Locations opening today (12 to 40 stalls) are often 2 to 4 times the number of stalls as locations they were opening two years ago (6 to 8 stalls).
2. Many routes are completed with enough capacity to handle twice the number of cars. Those routes won't need expansion for another year or two.

Very likely this site will be fine going forward. By the next peak travel period the capacity issue will likely have been addressed. A 20-stall location in Blythe would be nice.

I don't think you pay any real attention to what I write. The facts do speak for themselves. You can talk about a 10% or 20% increase as if that will solve all the problems with charging, but it won't. You keep looking at the immediate problems of today without considering the big picture. They can build 20 bay chargers in CA to solve the congestion in some locations. That's not the only problem and isn't the real problem going forward.

I'll repeat the issues clearly.

1) Congestion at chargers creates a negative image of EV ownership regardless of how severe a problem it actually creates. Persistent congestion creates persistent negative images. The Tesla name lit up in red all around the country is a powerful image. Seeing a dozen Teslas lined up waiting for charging creates a powerful image of a different kind. The current rate of sales will require a *lot* higher rate of Supercharger installation to avoid creation of a seed of a negative image that will be very hard to overcome in the future regardless of problems actually having been solved.

2) The capabilities of Tesla EVs can't be properly utilized when chargers are so far apart that charging has to be done long before the battery is near empty. The range on EVs is already very limited. Losing the last 100 miles because the chargers are too far apart makes longer trips a PITA with far too frequent charging stops adding wasted hours of charging to the hours of driving. It is entirely practical to stop to charge once every four hours combined with a meal break which makes the charging not wasted at all. Mainstream buyers aren't going to look at EVs the same way the early adopters will. They will only consider EVs when they are convinced they are a positive rather than a negative or at best a compromise with the ICE they are already driving. That will require highway chargers every 25 miles or so to allow the full range to be used and on every route, not just the major interstates. Rt 29 through VA is a great example. It carries a lot of traffic, but had no chargers. They finally installed on in Haymarket, VA which is a big enabler for that corridor. Now they need a few more which compete with the chargers needed along every other route.

No one has said Tesla needs all of these new chargers tomorrow. No one has predicted the collapse of the charging network. The issue is Tesla enabling sales of the cars to more than the 1% who is in love with EVs without even test driving one. From here on out it will be a different battle than the fight up to this point. Major installations of Superchargers are a vital part of that effort, if not the biggest part of it.

But it is very clear that a linear installation of new chargers can't possibly keep up with geometric sales. Every model they add will require a higher installation rate of chargers. To deny that is to be ignorant of simple math. The rate of chargers up to this point has served the rate of sales of the S and X. Now they need to ramp it up to keep up with the model 3 sales. In another year or two they will need to ramp that up again to keep up with model Y sales... assuming they sell them in the US. It may only be China for a couple of years. That is the real EV market.

 

[gnuarm]

Sounds like really bad planning. You should learn to think ahead.

Yes, I should have thought ahead and driven the truck instead of an EV, that's what you meant?

Seems likely enough. I find that Tesla owners might get caught out once or twice early in their ownership days, but they don't tend towards persistent obtuseness.

Yes, I expect this sort of denial from the early adopters. You love your car in spite of it's warts. But most people don't feel the need to adopt a technology before it is ready for prime time or before it is actually paying benefits. So by your thinking I must not actually be a Tesla owner and am making all this up. Sure....

 

[juliusa]

Congestion at chargers creates a negative image

People line up at gas stations. They sit in traffic jams to and from work every single day. I think you underestimate people's tolerance for inconvenience, and also overestimate how much people need superchagers for the driving they do.

The capabilities of Tesla EVs can't be properly utilized when chargers are so far apart that charging has to be done long before the battery is near empty.

Hundreds of thousands of EV drivers disagree.

The supercharger network is not holding back any Tesla sales. Tesla is selling them as fast as they can make them. Production is the limiting factor for sales.

 

[gnuarm]

People line up at gas stations. They sit in traffic jams to and from work every single day. I think you underestimate people's tolerance for inconvenience, and also overestimate how much people need superchagers for the driving they do.

Really? You have sat in long lines at gas stations since 1973? I haven't. I can't even remember seeing long lines at gas stations since then.

Hundreds of thousands of EV drivers disagree.

Yeah, I think that is what I wrote, the early adopters. Possibly up to 1% is my estimate. The rest are going to be a lot harder to convince, not to mention the cost of the cars.

The supercharger network is not holding back any Tesla sales. Tesla is selling them as fast as they can make them. Production is the limiting factor for sales.

Yes, like many other posts you twist what I said. I didn't say anything about current sales. Although the sales rate seems to have peaked. They will be selling overseas soon and the Chinese market is the one to watch. So they may be able to sell 10,000 a week. But no matter where they are selling them, if the charging network is not pushed fast enough to stay ahead of the power curve sales will be limited.

You keep driving by looking in your rear view mirror. Not recommended.

 

[cpa]

I think we should let this subject wither away and die.

We all agree that Tesla needs to increase the density of Superchargers and the placement of Superchargers. We disagree on whether this is an imminent problem or one that will be resolved over time. We also disagree on whether this perceived shortage of Superchargers and interminable waits will affect future sales.

Tesla (I hope) will be manufacturing a CCS adapter in the future. This will enable us to use the anticipated roll out of the Electrify America program as well as any privately operated charging stations that may become a business model once more cars from more manufacturers are sold. This will mitigate some of this perceived problem.

To try to be balanced, Tesla has not performed to its best as far as increasing Superchargers. I am sure part of the problem has to do with the complicated process of securing an appropriate location with an appropriate amount of stalls dovetailed with the complex permitting processes and construction issues. Tesla may have decided to divert some money for manufacturing and sales rather than building out the network.

But I do not think a Chicken Little viewpoint is called for, either. It is still comparatively early in the game. The truth is we do not know how John Q. Public, his wife, and their kids will perceive this situation. We do not know if Tesla will be changing its charging protocols to permit faster charging (maybe retrofitting locations so that each station can deliver 120kW).

There are just too many variables today to be overly pessimistic. If these situations become chronic in a few years and Tesla is losing market share, then Tesla will have learned a valuable lesson.

 

[Bet TSLA]

But it is very clear that a linear installation of new chargers can't possibly keep up with geometric sales. Every model they add will require a higher installation rate of chargers. To deny that is to be ignorant of simple math.

The math isn't hard, but it isn't actually very simple. Perhaps, if you are capable enough, you should learn something about queueing theory. Then you might be able to reason about the issue with the right tools at hand. As it stands you're just babbling. Your inchoate fears of a mysterious future are based pretty much on ignorance.

I think all we can agree on at this point is that where there are lines there need to be more or faster chargers. But there's even some uncertainty around that, since as the vehicles become autonomous the dynamics will change. Your simplistic view of the charging universe is pretty much useless. In any case, there are many other threads in which the proper allocation of superchargers have been hotly debated over the years. You might try reading them. You might even learn something about queueing theory.

 

[335eye]

So glad I found this thread.. Question for those experienced with the route from Phx to Anaheim.. We're planning a trip leaving this Thursday Jan 10 at 1pm from Phx to Anaheim. Returning Sunday leaving Anaheim at 8am'ish back to Phx. Am I going to hit a Supercharger'backup? Can this be reasonably predicted? Thx.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So glad I found this thread.. Question for those experienced with the route from Phx to Anaheim.. We're planning a trip leaving this Thursday Jan 10 at 1pm from Phx to Anaheim. Returning Sunday leaving Anaheim at 8am'ish back to Phx. Am I going to hit a Supercharger'backup? Can this be reasonably predicted? Thx.

Quartzsite will be deserted. No telling what you'll find in California.

 

[335eye]

Quartzsite will be deserted. No telling what you'll find in California.

Thanks. Can anyone make an educated guess about Indio? Cabezon? This Thursday 01/10/19 and this coming Sunday 01/13/19?

 

[gnuarm]

I think we should let this subject wither away and die.

We all agree that Tesla needs to increase the density of Superchargers and the placement of Superchargers. We disagree on whether this is an imminent problem or one that will be resolved over time. We also disagree on whether this perceived shortage of Superchargers and interminable waits will affect future sales.

Ah, a voice of reason. How refreshing.

Tesla (I hope) will be manufacturing a CCS adapter in the future. This will enable us to use the anticipated roll out of the Electrify America program as well as any privately operated charging stations that may become a business model once more cars from more manufacturers are sold. This will mitigate some of this perceived problem.

If the problem is charger congestion, it may help... some. Will it help the current situation in Quartzsite? I see one each of Chademo and CCS chargers in Blythe, about 10 miles away. Otherwise all the CCS/Chademo chargers are in the same areas as Superchargers. I think you will find the Electrify America chargers will show up in the same places as Superchargers which only provide congestion relief and not so much range relief.

To try to be balanced, Tesla has not performed to its best as far as increasing Superchargers. I am sure part of the problem has to do with the complicated process of securing an appropriate location with an appropriate amount of stalls dovetailed with the complex permitting processes and construction issues. Tesla may have decided to divert some money for manufacturing and sales rather than building out the network.

It's not an issue of balance. It's an issue of reality. The problem is a result of the sales of Teslas increasing manyfold from around 100,000 a year to well over 300,000 a year. People recall the times they were the only car at a charger forgetting the times the chargers were half full. As the number of cars on the road again doubles the half full times will become full times and worse. Remember that Superchargers are in pairs. The first car gets what it needs and the second in a pair only gets what is left. So trip stations with more than half the chargers in use will provide slower charging to additional cars. That is very significant.

But I do not think a Chicken Little viewpoint is called for, either. It is still comparatively early in the game. The truth is we do not know how John Q. Public, his wife, and their kids will perceive this situation. We do not know if Tesla will be changing its charging protocols to permit faster charging (maybe retrofitting locations so that each station can deliver 120kW).

Who is promoting a Chicken Little viewpoint??? I'm simply pointing out that the charging network is about all most people see of Tesla. For widespread acceptance EVs need to overcome a lot of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). The visible presence of Superchargers do a lot of good for the Tesla name. Seeing crowded chargers does a lot of harm. The rest is simply math.

There are just too many variables today to be overly pessimistic. If these situations become chronic in a few years and Tesla is losing market share, then Tesla will have learned a valuable lesson.

The problems don't need to be "chronic" to harm Tesla or the entire EV industry. Tesla has virtually zero competition right now because no one else has a charging network of any real utility. Even intermittent problems with crowding will be harmful to the brand and the industry. The "gold" standard is the gas powered industry. Until charging becomes as reliable and available as that, EVs will not become widely accepted.

 

[gnuarm]

The math isn't hard, but it isn't actually very simple. Perhaps, if you are capable enough, you should learn something about queueing theory. Then you might be able to reason about the issue with the right tools at hand. As it stands you're just babbling. Your inchoate fears of a mysterious future are based pretty much on ignorance.

I have studied queueing theory. That is why I know the lines can get very long even when the servers can on the average keep up with demand.

Since you are familiar with queueing theory, tell me what happens when you have multiple servers, but some are slower than others. How does that impact wait times if the slow servers are only used when all the fast servers are occupied? I think you will be surprised how quickly long lines form. Having 8 trip chargers is not twice a good as having 4 unpaired trip chargers by a long shot.

I think all we can agree on at this point is that where there are lines there need to be more or faster chargers. But there's even some uncertainty around that, since as the vehicles become autonomous the dynamics will change. Your simplistic view of the charging universe is pretty much useless. In any case, there are many other threads in which the proper allocation of superchargers have been hotly debated over the years. You might try reading them. You might even learn something about queueing theory.

Vehicles won't become autonomous for some time to come so that is a red herring. My model of the charging network is accurate and considers the many issues involved. Many posters fail to even try to consider that the present charging network has any possibility of seeing it's limitations at any time in the future when it is very clear that if Superchargers are not built in much larger numbers than they have in the past, there will be charging problems, especially on trips and that such problems can be devastating to the future of Tesla and EVs in general.

 

[gnuarm]

So glad I found this thread.. Question for those experienced with the route from Phx to Anaheim.. We're planning a trip leaving this Thursday Jan 10 at 1pm from Phx to Anaheim. Returning Sunday leaving Anaheim at 8am'ish back to Phx. Am I going to hit a Supercharger'backup? Can this be reasonably predicted? Thx.

I think you will find it is hard to predict a backup unless you have a fair amount of data on what has happened on similar occasions.

In general the data that has been presented shows the early part of the day is not crowded. It is later in the day when the station gets more crowded. I'm not sure it is really congested other than on the "special" days like the holidays. It also matters if they have fixed the one or two bad chargers. Any word on that?

Also, can't you skip this charger by hitting the ones before and after?

 

[gnuarm]

I have not seen that - got a link? The articles I've seen talk about less deliveries in 2018 than expected - nothing about demand.

Here is an article that discusses things without a bias.

Tesla Demand

The main point is that much of the reservation list is not turning into sales. In addition they talk about a black friday effect. None of this is proven for sure. But it seems pretty clear that without the backlog, demand will be lower in 2019. Since production has not increased in two quarters, I suppose demand doesn't need to remain terribly high to keep up with production. But if they are going to introduce a model Y which shares a similar price tag to the model 3, you can expect it to steal sales from the 3.

My point exactly!! Your analysis based on anecdotes is completely meaningless. The time I had to wait 3 years ago in California did not dampen sales - I don't see what has changed from then that the infrequent waits will dampen sales now.

I don't know why you think you are making any sort of sense.

 

[TaoJones]

Thanks. Can anyone make an educated guess about Indio? Cabezon? This Thursday 01/10/19 and this coming Sunday 01/13/19?

Thursday will be fine.

Sunday afternoon will be busy.

But that’s normal.

It’s the exceptions that can trip you up. Bad pedestals, reduced power sites, that sort of thing.

All but twice, Qzsite and the restrooms from hell have been deserted. Twice there have been bad pedestals or reduced power. And a ripple effect westward.

The network is still 95% uncongested. At worst.

How Tesla improves handling of the other 5% will drive perception.

 

[gnuarm]

I've supercharged over a thousand times and was 2nd in line once at Mountain View a couple years ago.

I believe gnuarm is a troll and I'm fairly sure he doesn't own a Tesla.

I can see why you believe that, but it has nothing to do with my posts, but rather the way you seem to think. Do you really not understand that the thousand charges you did in the past have nothing to do with the waits that will occur in the future as they deliver more and more cars all using the same charging network? Really!!!???

 

[gnuarm]

Thursday will be fine.

Sunday afternoon will be busy.

But that’s normal.

It’s the exceptions that can trip you up. Bad pedestals, reduced power sites, that sort of thing.

All but twice, Qzsite and the restrooms from hell have been deserted. Twice there have been bad pedestals or reduced power. And a ripple effect westward.

The network is still 95% uncongested. At worst.

How Tesla improves handling of the other 5% will drive perception.

I think someone here actually "gets" it.

 

[wraithnot]

Really? You have sat in long lines at gas stations since 1973? I haven't. I can't even remember seeing long lines at gas stations since then.

Before I bought the Model S, I waited in line for gas several times (15-20 min wait each time) while traveling on interstate 5 right before and right after thanksgiving. This didn't stop me from making the same trip in subsequent years so I assume moderate waits for fuel won't dissuade most drivers from traveling during peak travel days.

Epic 2+ hour waits are something else entirely and Tesla has historically been pretty good about addressing these issues every time people start posting photos of massive lines of Tesla's waiting to charge. Harris Ranch originally only had one plug and this was quickly expanded to 6 plugs and now it has 20 plugs along with 40 plugs 27 miles away in Kettleman City. Gilroy originally had 4 plugs that were routinely congested until more plugs were added (Gilroy has 16 plugs now). Tejon ranch originally had 6 plugs until an epic backup in 2015 got lots of media attention- there are 24 plugs there now and no wait when we stopped there right after Christmas this year. Barstow witnessed an epic backup in 2016. And then Tesla opened a station with 18 stalls 17 miles away in Yermo and a "supercharger lounge" with 40 plugs 68 miles Baker.

Based on past behavior, I have little doubt Tesla will improve the situation at Quartzsite by either adding more plugs or opening new stations nearby before the next peak travel season. My point in starting this thread was to help people avoid long waits before Tesla has time to fix the situation.

 

[cpa]

"supercharger lounge" with 40 plugs 68 miles Baker.

Cough, cough, you mean to say that the DQ in Baker is now considered a Supercharger lounge?

 

[Uncle Paul]

I think that the Supercharger network has some comparisons to our roadway network.

At certain times our roads are horribly congested. Fuel and time is wasted in bumper to bumper traffic. People have adapeted and changed their travel times to avoid going through urban areas during the workweek commute congestion.

EV travelers can do the same. Before leaving on a trip, determine the time to leave to reach your Superchargers when the congestion will not be severe. Get your charge and be on your way.

You can easily survey the Superchargers along your path and indicators will tell you how many empty stalls there are at any given time.

Tesla's Supercharger network is the finest in the world at this time. They are aware of the congestion points and making good progess to roll out additional stalls where needed.

The release of the upcoming V3 very fast chargers will improve through-put and also relieve congestion.

People focusing on the few pain points are missing the point. Overall the system is working pretty well, and efforts are being made to continually improve world wide.

 

[cpa]

I think that the Supercharger network has some comparisons to our roadway network.

At certain times our roads are horribly congested. Fuel and time is wasted in bumper to bumper traffic. People have adapeted and changed their travel times to avoid going through urban areas during the workweek commute congestion.

EV travelers can do the same. Before leaving on a trip, determine the time to leave to reach your Superchargers when the congestion will not be severe. Get your charge and be on your way.

You can easily survey the Superchargers along your path and indicators will tell you how many empty stalls there are at any given time.

Tesla's Supercharger network is the finest in the world at this time. They are aware of the congestion points and making good progess to roll out additional stalls where needed.

The release of the upcoming V3 very fast chargers will improve through-put and also relieve congestion.

People focusing on the few pain points are missing the point. Overall the system is working pretty well, and efforts are being made to continually improve world wide.

Uncle, your analogy has some merit.

However, I would disagree with you on the timing. We know traffic will be bad in the metropolitan areas during the common commuting hours. We do not expect traffic to be bad at 2:30AM, for example. Yet, there could be a wreck or police activity that shuts down many lanes or the entire freeway.

Similarly with Superchargers. We would expect certain Superchargers to experience heavy use during certain times, and we can plan accordingly as you suggested. To use Quartzsite as an example: This Supercharger does not appear on my touchscreen at home because I am too far away. Yet, I could decide to drive to Phoenix. I would have no way of knowing how occupied this Supercharger is upon departure. I would not know until after I have crossed the Grapevine and am heading east on Interstate 10. Even then I am still about a 7-hour drive away. I would have no way of knowing how congested Quartzsite will be in seven hours. Maybe half of the stalls will be down by the time I arrive, and there are 7 people there; four charging and three waiting.

I do agree that Tesla is aware of the choke points and that Tesla tries to improve them year-over-year. But I think that Tesla needs to improve its Supercharger information platform (or whatever the correct term is.) We should be able to receive timely reports about usage if we dial in a SC from the touchscreen or our phone. We should be able to report issues with broken hardware, reduced charge rates, and waits. No more calling a generic phone number and doing the push button dance to speak with someone. The current listing on the app is too limited.

I use ChargePoint public chargers occasionally. They have a usage feature for each site to show how much electricity is being used by a particular charging stall over a 7-day period that is broken up into the hours of the day. If ChargePoint can write this program, one would think that Tesla could do something similar.