gnuarm
Model X 100 with 72 amp chargers
Wrong.
1. You can't just look at the location count. Locations opening today (12 to 40 stalls) are often 2 to 4 times the number of stalls as locations they were opening two years ago (6 to 8 stalls).
2. Many routes are completed with enough capacity to handle twice the number of cars. Those routes won't need expansion for another year or two.
Very likely this site will be fine going forward. By the next peak travel period the capacity issue will likely have been addressed. A 20-stall location in Blythe would be nice.
I don't think you pay any real attention to what I write. The facts do speak for themselves. You can talk about a 10% or 20% increase as if that will solve all the problems with charging, but it won't. You keep looking at the immediate problems of today without considering the big picture. They can build 20 bay chargers in CA to solve the congestion in some locations. That's not the only problem and isn't the real problem going forward.
I'll repeat the issues clearly.
1) Congestion at chargers creates a negative image of EV ownership regardless of how severe a problem it actually creates. Persistent congestion creates persistent negative images. The Tesla name lit up in red all around the country is a powerful image. Seeing a dozen Teslas lined up waiting for charging creates a powerful image of a different kind. The current rate of sales will require a *lot* higher rate of Supercharger installation to avoid creation of a seed of a negative image that will be very hard to overcome in the future regardless of problems actually having been solved.
2) The capabilities of Tesla EVs can't be properly utilized when chargers are so far apart that charging has to be done long before the battery is near empty. The range on EVs is already very limited. Losing the last 100 miles because the chargers are too far apart makes longer trips a PITA with far too frequent charging stops adding wasted hours of charging to the hours of driving. It is entirely practical to stop to charge once every four hours combined with a meal break which makes the charging not wasted at all. Mainstream buyers aren't going to look at EVs the same way the early adopters will. They will only consider EVs when they are convinced they are a positive rather than a negative or at best a compromise with the ICE they are already driving. That will require highway chargers every 25 miles or so to allow the full range to be used and on every route, not just the major interstates. Rt 29 through VA is a great example. It carries a lot of traffic, but had no chargers. They finally installed on in Haymarket, VA which is a big enabler for that corridor. Now they need a few more which compete with the chargers needed along every other route.
No one has said Tesla needs all of these new chargers tomorrow. No one has predicted the collapse of the charging network. The issue is Tesla enabling sales of the cars to more than the 1% who is in love with EVs without even test driving one. From here on out it will be a different battle than the fight up to this point. Major installations of Superchargers are a vital part of that effort, if not the biggest part of it.
But it is very clear that a linear installation of new chargers can't possibly keep up with geometric sales. Every model they add will require a higher installation rate of chargers. To deny that is to be ignorant of simple math. The rate of chargers up to this point has served the rate of sales of the S and X. Now they need to ramp it up to keep up with the model 3 sales. In another year or two they will need to ramp that up again to keep up with model Y sales... assuming they sell them in the US. It may only be China for a couple of years. That is the real EV market.