Question for the Elon doubters

[Henchman]

Serious question for the Elon doubters.
Do you seriously think that someone who can create a successful, competitive company like Space X, and achieve what those in that industry thought was impossible, launching a payload Rocket and then have it safely land on a platform again, can't build a successful car company.

Seriously .
Think about that.
He launches rockets, with satellites, into Space.
Wins big military contracts over the longtime established aerospace competitors.

And you REALLY think he'll fail at making cars?

Think about how absolutley silly that sounds.

 

[FlatSix911]

Building cars at scale is more difficult than it seems ... but it's not rocket science Juggling a half-dozen companies is tough.

 

[RDoc]

Serious question for the Elon doubters.
Do you seriously think that someone who can create a successful, competitive company like Space X, and achieve what those in that industry thought was impossible, launching a payload Rocket and then have it safely land on a platform again, can't build a successful car company.

Seriously .
Think about that.
He launches rockets, with satellites, into Space.
Wins big military contracts over the longtime established aerospace competitors.

And you REALLY think he'll fail at making cars?

Think about how absolutley silly that sounds.

Well, those examples have nothing to do with each other.
Have you noticed all the Boeing automobiles all over the highways? Not to mention the overwhelming number of Ford jetliners.

 

[decurro]

“The impossible?” The argument has been whether reuse was economical, not possible. Until we know spacex’s finances there’s no way to know if they’ve done anything thought to be impossible. They could be losing 30-40 million a launch for all we know.

You are talking about a guy who has historically sold his cars 30k under cost after all.

 

[generalenthu]

Damn, some people can do it in one post.

 

[Reality]

Serious question for the Elon doubters.
Do you seriously think that someone who can create a successful, competitive company like Space X, and achieve what those in that industry thought was impossible, launching a payload Rocket and then have it safely land on a platform again, can't build a successful car company.

Yes, thats what you dont understand.


Building a rocket is a non competitive industry that does not operate in a competitive environment simply because there is no business model around it. Bezos did a less significant version of the same thing as a hobby. There is no cutthroat competition in rocket building, and there hasnt been significant attempts at innovation in 30 years.



The biggest piece of your argument that makes no sense, is that you are comparing 1 highly specialized industry with zero competition, with a mass market multi trillion dollar industry as if they were somehow comparable?


The car industry is highly de-centralized, brutally cut throat operating on razor thin margins with the newest age technology and talent that has been developing for decades. Elon hired an apple guy to lead manufacturing (because cars are like phones?) and figured they would just 'figure it out' as they went. Using phrases like "machine that builds the machine" and "alien dreadnaught" to get all the comic book fan base feeling tingly down below.


The reality is they dont know how to manufacture cars. The space stuff is a distraction (and really cool) and I hope SpaceX works out. However to compare 2 completely unrelated things really has no context in the conversation.


I am a financial guy, but never would I say "hey do you really think a guy who succeeded int he financial world, can't write a best selling novel?"


It sounds ridiculous right?

 

[Henchman]

Seriously?
You don't think the rocket industry is competitive?

 

[Henchman]

Guess what.
I'm an audio post guy, who never did anything in theatre.
Last year we produced our first musical.
We're starting on a 2nd.
And I'm directing jynforst film this august.

Not everyone is a one trick pony.

 

[Henchman]

I am a financial guy, but never would I say "hey do you really think a guy who succeeded int he financial world, can't write a best selling novel?"


It sounds ridiculous right?

No actually.
It doesn't

 

[EinSV]

@Henchman, the short sellers, ICE industry folks and other doubters have a heaping helping of confirmation bias -- they ignore or dismiss everything that contradicts their beliefs. That includes not only Elon's accomplishments with SpaceX (and PayPal), but all of Tesla's accomplishments to date.

Interestingly, though, the German automakers may finally be starting to wake up and realize that Tesla is the real deal. They should have woken up when the Model S started eating their lunch in the U.S. and then Europe, but may have consoled themselves by thinking Tesla couldn't make a profit.

They got a cold slap in the face when one of them hired German engineers to tear down the Model 3, who not only marveled at the Model 3's engineering but gave them the bad news that it could be produced for only about $28,000, which would make it very profitable. Uh oh.

Tesla Model 3 teardown points to only $28,000 in potential material and production cost
Google Translate

Apparently this has caused quite a stir over in Germany. Tesla Model 3: Ingenieure zerlegen Elektroauto und finden Erstaunliches - manager magazin (article is in German but you can open in Chrome and translate).

Of course, Tesla short sellers will say otherwise because that's how they roll -- their whole purpose in life once they have shorted the stock is to spread FUD.

Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

 

[Rarity]

The car industry is highly de-centralized, brutally cut throat operating on razor thin margins with the newest age technology and talent that has been developing for decades.

I don't believe the car industry as a whole is using the newest age technology. Neither in the cockpit nor on the manufacturing line. As an example, nobody besides Tesla can do simple over-the-air updates.

 

[tander]

“The impossible?” The argument has been whether reuse was economical, not possible. Until we know spacex’s finances there’s no way to know if they’ve done anything thought to be impossible. They could be losing 30-40 million a launch for all we know.

You are talking about a guy who has historically sold his cars 30k under cost after all.

FYI Spacex financials are pretty much available if you look, and it's valuation is just a google away. And whether or not they are losing money isn't relevant. What's relevant is are they launching rockets into space and doing all the other things, and can they afford to lose money and stay in business. That seems counter-intuitive, but if you do your homework it's true. Case and point look at Amazon, they lost money for years, the stock price peaked during the Dotcom bubble and didn't recover for about ten years, but look at it now.

 

[S'toon]

“The impossible?” The argument has been whether reuse was economical, not possible. Until we know spacex’s finances there’s no way to know if they’ve done anything thought to be impossible. They could be losing 30-40 million a launch for all we know.

You are talking about a guy who has historically sold his cars 30k under cost after all.

Not true. Tesla makes approximately $20K profit per car. They're just spending to build the company faster than the money comes in. They're building factories, stores, Superchargers, Service Centres, etc. Once that infrastructure is all built, then they can start working on the accumulated debt. The legacy car makers have their infrastructure in place. If someone else were to start a car company from scratch, then they'd face the same problems as Tesla.

 

[Reality]

Seriously?
You don't think the rocket industry is competitive?

uh, no

i dont

 

[EV-lutioin]

@Henchman, the short sellers, ICE industry folks and other doubters have a heaping helping of confirmation bias -- they ignore or dismiss everything that contradicts their beliefs. That includes not only Elon's accomplishments with SpaceX (and PayPal), but all of Tesla's accomplishments to date.

Interestingly, though, the German automakers may finally be starting to wake up and realize that Tesla is the real deal. They should have woken up when the Model S started eating their lunch in the U.S. and then Europe, but may have consoled themselves by thinking Tesla couldn't make a profit.

They got a cold slap in the face when one of them hired German engineers to tear down the Model 3, who not only marveled at the Model 3's engineering but gave them the bad news that it could be produced for only about $28,000, which would make it very profitable. Uh oh.

Tesla Model 3 teardown points to only $28,000 in potential material and production cost
Google Translate

Apparently this has caused quite a stir over in Germany. Tesla Model 3: Ingenieure zerlegen Elektroauto und finden Erstaunliches - manager magazin (article is in German but you can open in Chrome and translate).

Of course, Tesla short sellers will say otherwise because that's how they roll -- their whole purpose in life once they have shorted the stock is to spread FUD.

Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

That video is frightening.. "... you have to create a new truth". And now it all makes sense, Cramer is basically describing the playbook the shorts are using... and the White House, for that matter. When winning becomes more important to ethics or morals, we are all in serious trouble.

 

[Lasttoy]

Friends ask me about the competitive edge he has. I say "wonder where they will charge in 30 minutes on a trip?"
They will charge at home everyday, but not fast on long trips. Make a run with me to DC without a charging network. Good luck.
If you look at tesla as a long run game, no one will ever catch up.
He will turn a profit one day, but who cares? We are making fools out of nay sayers.
Try 119k miles and no gas.
VW just set a record at Pikes Peak, but cant go very far.