Queue position effect of Day 1 M3 orders delayed due to later availability of $35K model?

[voip-ninja]

I'm kind of curious on how this is going to shake out and affect queue position for people who don't currently own a Tesla, but put a deposit down for the prospect of a $35,000 model.

I speculate that many people who don't currently own a Tesla (and in many cases couldn't afford the current models) line waited in order to put a reservation down for the $35,000 model.

I further posit that some of this group don't qualify for the full $7500 tax credit due to lack of $7500 in taxable liability (retirees, students, etc.).

So I'm curious if Tesla is taking any of this into account in their delivery estimates. Will 10% of line waiters delay delivery because they don't want delivery of initial production $49,000 M3? Will it be a bigger number than that?

I suspect it will be sizable, in the range of 20% or more, but I don't know if Tesla is currently estimating or accounting for it.

 

[Rich966]

Some will also delay for All Wheel Drive (dual motor) configurations.

 

[gregincal]

I think a fairly large percentage will opt for the base Model, but I don't know what you mean by whether Tesla is currently estimating or accounting for it. They start shipping the base Model in November, and we don't really know what the percentage breakdown will be from that point forward between the base model and the LR model.

 

[206er]

I'm not a Tesla owner and waited in line for 3+ hours on the morning of 3/31/2016 to put down a $1,000 deposit toward a $35,000 Tesla, fully expecting to receive the $7,500 tax credit.

My current delivery estimate for the base model is Jan-Mar 2018.

 

[gambit48]

I'm not a Tesla owner and waited in line for 3+ hours on the morning of 3/31/2016 to put down a $1,000 deposit toward a $35,000 Tesla, fully expecting to receive the $7,500 tax credit.

My current delivery estimate for the base model is Jan-Mar 2018.

And that's looking really good for the full $7,500 tax credit.

Maybe the better question, and probably for another thread, would be how many of those waiting for the $35,000 Tesla didn't calculate whether they can take a $7,500 tax credit.

Or don't understand how the phase out works, reserved really late, and expect the $7,500 when their reservation date isn't until 2019.

 

[BluestarE3]

So I'm curious if Tesla is taking any of this into account in their delivery estimates.

I think that's one of the reasons for offering the SAVE button on the Delivery Estimate page. The stated reason is that "Your selection allows us to inform you when new options become available." However, I think it is also used to gauge how many reservation holders opt for each of the presented configurations so they can adjust manufacturing accordingly.

 

[insaneoctane]

I put my deposit down, fully intended to be the subject of this poll.... But have since succumbed to Tesla the siren and now am getting the first release. My delivery date for either should qualify for the full tax credit...

 

[voip-ninja]

I think a fairly large percentage will opt for the base Model, but I don't know what you mean by whether Tesla is currently estimating or accounting for it. They start shipping the base Model in November, and we don't really know what the percentage breakdown will be from that point forward between the base model and the LR model.

This is what I mean;

If you were a line waiter and Tesla approaches you to configure your $49,000 initial production Tesla in October, you either accept the $49,000 car or you opt to delay delivery until a later time when the $35,000 car is available.

How many people opt for this will affect people's place in queue since arguably Tesla won't modify early production as a result of how many choose to delay delivery.

 

[dsvick]

Your poll is sort of flawed ... It's not really that black and white, like was mentioned above some are waiting for AWD, some for performance, some for white seats, some don't want the larger battery but do want PUP. If you change it to "Who doesn't want the larger battery" it'll be a bit more accurate but there will still be people that want the larger battery but also want AWD or white interior or anything else not available yet.

 

[gswcowboy]

I'm not a Tesla owner and waited in line for 3+ hours on the morning of 3/31/2016 to put down a $1,000 deposit toward a $35,000 Tesla, fully expecting to receive the $7,500 tax credit.

My current delivery estimate for the base model is Jan-Mar 2018.

curious but is the

I'm not a Tesla owner and waited in line for 3+ hours on the morning of 3/31/2016 to put down a $1,000 deposit toward a $35,000 Tesla, fully expecting to receive the $7,500 tax credit.

My current delivery estimate for the base model is Jan-Mar 2018.

That delivery estimate is for a standard battery?

 

[Saghost]

The delivery estimates probably include Tesla's best guess of the ratio of folks who will wait - they obviously can't know for certain until they ask folks to configure.

They should have a fair amount of flexibility to adjust the start of production of the small battery and the AWD versions based on the way the orders shake out. I don't think there's any significant additional engineering effort for the 220 mile battery, so presumably they'll be able to produce those when they choose - they just want/need to get the higher profit margin until the line is stabilized. I'm not sure how much work or testing is still needed for the AWD versions.

 

[gregincal]

The delivery estimates probably include Tesla's best guess of the ratio of folks who will wait - they obviously can't know for certain until they ask folks to configure.

They should have a fair amount of flexibility to adjust the start of production of the small battery and the AWD versions based on the way the orders shake out. I don't think there's any significant additional engineering effort for the 220 mile battery, so presumably they'll be able to produce those when they choose - they just want/need to get the higher profit margin until the line is stabilized. I'm not sure how much work or testing is still needed for the AWD versions.

I don't know about the AWD version, but otherwise they will be introducing the small battery right about when they start really scaling production. Up until then it doesn't make much difference, and after that they can adjust the production split between short range and long range to meet demand. The 3 month window in estimated delivery gives them a lot of flexibility as well.

If you believe their timeline it sort of looks like:
Aug-Sep: Employee LR, very small amounts of cars
Oct: Start existing Owner LR - scaling to 1500 cars/wk
Nov: Owner and First day non-owner LR, Employee SR - scaling to 4000 cars/wk
Dec: More LR orders, start Owner SR - scaling to 5000 cars/wk
Jan: Unknown mix of SR and LR to everybody at 5000 cars/wk

and then at some point AWD starts to ramp up, first to Employees, then existing owners and then non-owners, starting with line waiters.

 

[timk225]

I was 3rd in line at my local Tesla show room, on 3/31 to put my money down.

I've decided on my 3, it'll be a white $35K standard battery base model.

When my turn comes to place my order, if I can't place it right away, I will wait until I can. I'm not adding one dollar worth of options, other than the white paint, to get it sooner.

 

[JeffK]

We still don't actually know what the base model looks like inside...

 

[voip-ninja]

Your poll is sort of flawed ... It's not really that black and white, like was mentioned above some are waiting for AWD, some for performance, some for white seats, some don't want the larger battery but do want PUP. If you change it to "Who doesn't want the larger battery" it'll be a bit more accurate but there will still be people that want the larger battery but also want AWD or white interior or anything else not available yet.

Sure, there are lots of variations as you mention that could cause someone to delay their order.

I assert that the biggest one, by a huge margin, will be the people who want the base, no frills (other than paint color) model because of the advertised $35K price and how long they will wait for it.

More interesting (to me personally) is how many orders will end up dissolving into nothing when the person is asked to pony up the $2500 and fully commit to the ordering process... however I didn't run that poll because the reaction here might be a little.... strong.

 

[voip-ninja]

We still don't actually know what the base model looks like inside...

Elon says it will be better than other luxury cars at the same price... so if you believe him, there's nothing in the base model that would turn people off from ordering if they are okay with cloth seats.

 

[siggyfreud]

Rather than asking everyone to guess why not just ask the folks here in a poll if they're waiting or not. Then you'd actually have a sample of data, rather than a sample of everyone's speculation. The poll is kind of like asking how many people you think will vote red in an election, vs just asking them how they'll vote and drawing conclusions from the sample size.

 

[SageBrush]

Sure, there are lots of variations as you mention that could cause someone to delay their order.

I assert that the biggest one, by a huge margin,

Will be the ramp-up

 

[timk225]

That bit about having to put down another 2500 when you order your car concerns me. I have my credit card paid off, so I have the 2500 ready and available, but what if the car is built and delivered to the local service center, then when it is time to arrange financing, they say no? What happens to my 2500, actually 3500?

It shouldn't be a problem, I have a 730+ fico score, checked recently, and a flawless payment history on 2 other car loans in the last 5 years, but still... what if?

I am getting a base model plus white paint, $36k car. Yes, I want the big battery, but I am not paying 9000 extra for it

 

[siggyfreud]

That bit about having to put down another 2500 when you order your car concerns me. I have my credit card paid off, so I have the 2500 ready and available, but what if the car is built and delivered to the local service center, then when it is time to arrange financing, they say no? What happens to my 2500, actually 3500?

It shouldn't be a problem, I have a 730+ fico score, checked recently, and a flawless payment history on 2 other car loans in the last 5 years, but still... what if?

I am getting a base model plus white paint, $36k car. Yes, I want the big battery, but I am not paying 9000 extra for it

Easiest solution would be to get pre-approved before handing over the $2,500 from a local institution like a credit union if it's a concern. You don't have to finance through Tesla, nor does getting pre-approved by a local institution mean you can't decide to finance through Tesla when the time comes.