Range is the key to robust EV sales

[jeff_adams]

I think the poor sales of the 40kw Model S clearly shows that buyers want 200+ range from a EV. This also shows why EV sales have been weak compared to hybrids. Even if people rarely drive that much in a day, they want the ability to do so.

 

[Eberhard]

yes, but thats the point, where the supercharger kicks in. Giving you the speed to charge on the few occasions where you need it. You save more time on charging home as you spend it when you have to do it on long distance trips. But its also to learning curve. with more EV's on the road with happy owners, the more they get common. Having the first car with a degraded battery still serves well on shorter distances as a second car.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think the poor sales of the 40kw Model S clearly shows that buyers want 200+ range from a EV. This also shows why EV sales have been weak compared to hybrids. Even if people rarely drive that much in a day, they want the ability to do so.

The fundamental reasons are purely technological:
- EV components are expensive
- Batteries are low density
- Charging speed (miles/hour) depends on battery size

Yes, the range of a 40kWh BEV is limiting, but a big part of low sales is because it was a 40kWh BEV with an additional price premium (a 40kWh Nissan wouldn't start at $57.5k) and simply sits in the wrong place in the market.

 

[Al Sherman]

It's not just range. It's all about range AND PRICE. As battery technology improves and prices drop more people will enter the market. We've only scratched the surface.

The average person has a number in mind (miles) that they want to drive before charging. For the most part it 'aint 200. Even though they may only exceed 200 miles once a year, they want to be able to do this drive without charging until they arrive. AND, they don't want to spend 80k to do it. As more peoples arbitrary miles number is achieved, and the price comes down we'll see the sales go up.

 

[Doug_G]

Supercharging is irrelevant, at least until they are on every street corner. I totally agree with the OP. until we get affordable 200 mile range cars, EVs will be a niche vehicle. The Gen III will revolutionize transport, and the industry, when it comes... IF it is no more than $40k for 200 miles.

 

[jeff_adams]

Tesla now has some interesting data to extrapolate. Did more people want fancy rims and interiors, or were they drawn to twin chargers and paying the 2k for supercharging on the 60s?

Just going by anecdotal stories in the forums, it's clear to me that several people "squeezed" up from a 40kw to a 60kw. Some did it because they were so excited to get the car, they thought it would be built sooner. On the other hand, it seemed to me that most did it because of longer range and "supercharging". Only a few mentioned performance.

That supports my theory that buyers are looking for EVs that have decent range. For some reason, I suspect the magic number is 200+ miles a charge. If all the data evidence that Tesla has supports that theory, they must know it will be a bad business decision to roll out GenIII with anything less. I bet they will even include some way for the GenIII cars to use the supercharging network.

This explains why there could be delays in GenIII announcements. Range is almost as important as price point. The 40kw story suggests that people may find range even more important than the cost....