Here's a chart I found for Models S and X:
View attachment 469570
Of course, you have to turn kilometers into miles, but based upon the above data, it would seem to me that 2.5% degradation is the norm after a year, and 5% after 50km or about 2 to 3years of average driving. Notice how it drops initially, then gradually tapers off, so the degradation is not linear.
Now, look at the red dashed line I drew at 280 and 290 miles. There's literally, less than 1% of owners showing less than 290 miles. I'm sure the tech is right that he's seen cars at 280 to 290 miles, but it's certainly not common.