As I expected. Chemistry is harder than Elon thought, and Panasonic is better than he thought, beating or equalling them isn't easy. Semi needs max range, and Panasonic's NCA is better than the NMC that Tesla is doing with their 4680s and dry process. Panasonic is moving to 4680 form factor too (new factories in Midwest, OK or KS) but with their own process.
It was easy to compete against legacy automotive OEMs, just as SpaceX found it easy to compete against very legacy rocket makers in a cartel. Not always the case that the competition is asleep.
Not really. They can do the chemistry, that they have proven internally. Mass production scaling is the actual issue. Their equipment manufacturer for the 4680 line (by rumor) could not make the machines durable enough per Tesla's specs for high enough throughput. So, in typical Elon fashion, they fired them and are building their own machines.
The teardowns and analyses we have to date on the 4680s put them exactly where Tesla said they would be on their first-gen 4680 cells back in Battery day. There are two more iterations planned for the 4680s (at least), to incorporate additional changes (again, as planned) to the cell chemistry, both of which will increase energy density.
See videos on Youtube by The Limiting Factor, where they took a Jan 2022 Kato Rd cell (not a Giga TX cell - they have one of those now that is going through chemical analysis):
You also give Panasonic too much credit - they have near zero experience with Dry Battery Electrode batteries, as all their 2170 lines are optimized for the wet process (which takes about 10X the floor space of DBE). Because the 2170 process is a very mature process, they have over time incorporated things like graphite, etc. in to the electrodes which has improved energy density. These advancements were stepwise, and were not in place with the initial 2170 cells.
Again - the 4680 Tesla cells are going to be an evolving product, just like Panasonic's 2170s were. They will be substantially more energy dense in 2 years than they are now, again, just like the 2170s from 2020 are more energy dense than those from 2018.