I just got back from a 3,000-mile trip where temps were below freezing every night, and usually only 40's or 50's during the day (although it did hit 70 one day). I've played with Tesla's calculator and compared it to my notes on energy usage, and here's my conclusions FOR LONG TRIPS:
The Model S HVAC, at full blast takes about 7.5kW. What % hit that is depends on how fast you are going. And of course you may not have it on full blast. AC takes less than heat (at 90 degrees Tesla says the range is the same as 70; Model S batteries must like it a little warmer than Roadster batteries). But at 60 – 70mph freeway speeds, it appears to take off 7% at 50 degrees (or 100 if you're driving in heat, although I didn't get to measure that), 13% for 32 or 120, 25% for 15. It appears about 1/3 of this hit happens even with HVAC off, so that’s the portion to manage the batteries vs 2/3 to keep the cabin comfortable.
So for a long highway trip at 32 degrees, expect a 13% hit for HVAC. That would change the nominal 60mph 308Wh/mi consumption to 348. Of course there are lots of other hits too, like faster speed, generous acceleration, heavier or sticker tires and wheels, wet roads, wind, hills, etc. I'm trying to tease the numbers all out and hope to post something soon.
Note that the "average" energy usage is much worse for short city trips for two reasons. One is that a constant draw is a larger percentage hit at slower speeds (see graph below to get a feel for the relative hit). Another is that a lot of the energy to get the car bits warm comes at the very beginning. It's the same reason why my old Honda Insight only got 46mpg in the winter until I put on a block heater, even though I averaged 60mpg overall and could get over 80 in the summer.