I received my model 3 refund back within a few business days. I did it via ACH transfer. I have heard other refund methods take much longer.
I’m sure many are speculators and that’s why I said “even if 50% cancel”. Ford F-150 Lightning also has a $100 fee but just a fraction of the reservations (160k as of this month).
No one has hyped their product like Tesla. I'm sure the look of the truck appeals to some people, but I think the mainstream thinks it is ugly as a dog's behind. So Tesla gets tons of preorders and much like the model 3 the preorders don't dominate the production once they start shipping. I recall they were only a few months into having raised production quantity on the model 3 in 2018 I think and they abruptly had cars sitting in the lots without buyers waiting for them. So the number of $100 preorders is not much of an indicator of deliveries going forward. When are they supposed to actually be in volume production of the truck anyway? I mostly ignore such matters these days since most of what you hear is just hot air.