Realistic Delivery Dates

[Alset Srotom]

Ok,
So I really, really, really want my Cybertruck in 2021.

With that being said, we are ~18 months away from January of 2022, and not only has Tesla not broken ground on a Cybertruck factory, they have not even officially selected a site / made the purchase.

If Tesla is dead set on greenfielding CT production we are looking at 6/2022 for mass deliveries. By brownfielding they could hit the 2021 deadline (though this is not their style).

Your opinion?

 

[pdx_m3s]

Optimistically: First deliveries early-to-mid 2022 and volume deliveries in late 2022 and 2023. Depending on where you are in line, you will be waiting a while.

Tesla has to build an entirely new factory and production process for a radically different vehicle architecture using materials that have never been used for vehicle production at scale.

 

[Watts 4 Me]

2020 is basically done for.
2021 start building the factory
2022 maybe start production Q4
2023 full ramp.

 

[destructure00]

2020 is basically done for.
2021 start building the factory
2022 maybe start production Q4
2023 full ramp.

You must have missed how fast they went from land purchase to ground-breaking to production for GF3...

 

[Maaz]

I reallllllly hope they somehow deliver on this timeline. I was hoping they would pull a Model Y timeline and bring it to market a lot sooner than originally promised.

 

[sperkin]

Is GF3 in the US or China? In China they can build a bridge in 1 day and a skyscraper in a summer. We remodels our 12 floor office building in China and it took a month. We did the same in Santa Monica and it took a year. Santa Monica building was only 3 floors

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Another thing to keep in mind is that historically, if you are a current Tesla owner, you tend to get bumped up in line for delivery of a new model. Not a guarantee but it certainly happened when the Model 3 was released.

Dan

P.S. There's a reason I named my Model 3 Patience.

 

[dreitz]

we'll see...I'm guessing early 2022...

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

I'm betting on delayed delivery so I can actually gather cash for the CT.
That said...

Step back and consider the issue amid Elon's prime directive: Occupy Mars.
He's made clear that (yes this is relevant) he needs to not only commoditize factory production of products (rockets, cars), but that production of factories themselves must be commoditized. Witness his use of tents etc to house factories: minimum viable factories, assembled fast & cheap & cranking out product in short order cheap.
Done right, CT will go from bare field to >100,000/yr production in months.

 

[Watts 4 Me]

You must have missed how fast they went from land purchase to ground-breaking to production for GF3...

I guess you missed that this is getting built in the US not china. Here in the US permits alone take a long time to get.

 

[destructure00]

I guess you missed that this is getting built in the US not china. Here in the US permits alone take a long time to get.

I'm sure China is much more lenient.

 

[PlaidCPA]

Q2 2021

 

[geoffmanley]

Q2 2021

I like your optimism. I hope you are right.

 

[MikeDog77]

2020 is basically done for.
2021 start building the factory
2022 maybe start production Q4
2023 full ramp.

I am not waiting for a CyberTruck so I am a little less biased. 2020 is not done. I would be SHOCKED if they don't select and break ground on a CyberTruck location in 2020. Honestly, I would expect an announcement on the final location rumored to be in Austin in the next weeks. Figure the plant is up and running by middle of 2021... Start some production in 2021 and they should be going pretty strong at the beginning of 2022.

 

[destructure00]

I am not waiting for a CyberTruck so I am a little less biased. 2020 is not done. I would be SHOCKED if they don't select and break ground on a CyberTruck location in 2020. Honestly, I would expect an announcement on the final location rumored to be in Austin in the next weeks. Figure the plant is up and running by middle of 2021... Start some production in 2021 and they should be going pretty strong at the beginning of 2022.

I read somewhere that they were expected to make an announcement on location in June. Can't remember where I saw that, so take it with a grain of salt.

Regarding timeline, here's a chart comparing timelines on Giga China vs Giga Berlin progress, some of which may end up being applicable here, borrowed from this tweet: https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/1268279913146179587?s=20

 

[user212_nr]

I am not waiting for a CyberTruck so I am a little less biased. 2020 is not done. I would be SHOCKED if they don't select and break ground on a CyberTruck location in 2020. Honestly, I would expect an announcement on the final location rumored to be in Austin in the next weeks. Figure the plant is up and running by middle of 2021... Start some production in 2021 and they should be going pretty strong at the beginning of 2022.

Yeah, so there is some evidence that they have purchased a site and "broke ground" already.

Not sure why "Electrek" did not pick this up, as they love rumors, but it looks like this guy did his research. The site is in Hutto, TX, just outside of Austin. Tesla has visited the site in the past, and now they are massing construction equipment and doing what appears to be landscaping work, which is the first stage of construction. He has heard rumors that they are waiting with the state of TX to make the announcement. Maybe waiting for a more politically convenient time.

I think that early 2021 is a very reasonable time frame to have the factory completed and maybe turning out a few cars. It is just a box on a pile of concrete. Tesla needs to produce the CyberTruck in limited quantities at first in order to test their design and production processes. So it is not very reasonable to think about actually getting a CyberTruck until 2022, except should you be one of the very first.

Elon talked on his conference call about issues with producing the batteries that limit the number of cars that can be built. So it is a lot more significant to think about the scale of battery production than the building of factories.

 

[Alset Srotom]

Yeah, so there is some evidence that they have purchased a site and "broke ground" already.

Not sure why "Electrek" did not pick this up, as they love rumors, but it looks like this guy did his research. The site is in Hutto, TX, just outside of Austin. Tesla has visited the site in the past, and now they are massing construction equipment and doing what appears to be landscaping work, which is the first stage of construction. He has heard rumors that they are waiting with the state of TX to make the announcement. Maybe waiting for a more politically convenient time.

I think that early 2021 is a very reasonable time frame to have the factory completed and maybe turning out a few cars. It is just a box on a pile of concrete. Tesla needs to produce the CyberTruck in limited quantities at first in order to test their design and production processes. So it is not very reasonable to think about actually getting a CyberTruck until 2022, except should you be one of the very first.

Elon talked on his conference call about issues with producing the batteries that limit the number of cars that can be built. So it is a lot more significant to think about the scale of battery production than the building of factories.

Its not about the actual building. It's buying the site, breaking ground, & constructing the building combined with defining totally new processes for a new model, determining cycle & takt, and designing work stations so that everything happens in a harmonic flow.

We have been spoiled with Model Y ramp speeds due to the high level of part standardization with the Model 3. All new models are NOT easy to produce, even in limited quantities.

 

[user212_nr]

Its not about the actual building. It's buying the site, breaking ground, & constructing the building combined with defining totally new processes for a new model, determining cycle & takt, and designing work stations so that everything happens in a harmonic flow.

We have been spoiled with Model Y ramp speeds due to the high level of part standardization with the Model 3. All new models are NOT easy to produce, even in limited quantities.

My post is replying to a user who said that they had not broken ground yet. It is quite significant whether they have taken their first steps.

Tesla is an engineering company and their engineers will do their work. The cybertruck is designed to be easy to manufacture and it would be naive to think they haven't already though it out.

 

[Sasmania]

Elon REALLY wants to get the CT into production ASAP.

Why couldn't they set up a pre-production line at Fremont or Nevada now to work out the kinks...

Then once Texas is ready, it's just installing the already optimized lines and GO, cutting down the ramp-up time by 6 months??

 

[T3SLAROD]

2023... Elon is more concerned about getting Semis out at this point