SpiceWare
Member
Looks like they revised the site. There are no prices listed for anything on the main page. The SR model is still listed at the bottom of the Model 3 page.
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Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3
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Looks like they revised the site. There are no prices listed for anything on the main page. The SR model is still listed at the bottom of the Model 3 page.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
But that's barely under purchase price (depending on what their sales tax rate was, and whether or not they have a state EV rebate). Assuming they added 19" and paint; $49K + $5K + $1K +$1.5K - $7.5K = $49K
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Yeah, and when Tesla was contacted and asked specifically about (by a reporter) Tesla PR spokseperson explicitly stated that their plan to sell a $35K version had not changed.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
So Tesla will introduce a long range model without the mandatory $5k PUP and split the difference if they have to. Then even more people fall off the fence to chase the tax credit.
Tesla couldn’t care less that many people are on a budget. Their singular and only goal right now is to sell as many Model 3s at the highest transaction price possible, and that’s exactly what they’ll do.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Did you notice they are cutting wait times currently(not increasing), so rwd+p are 1-3mos and awd 2-4 mos?
We are also looking at higher production rates in 2019, like 7-8k or with luck even more. Yes, half of that will go to Europe, but 6mo*4k=96k that is comparable to SR line.
Edit: sorry for math. Got used to 5k factor
Cutting wait times from “1 year behind schedule” to “11 months behind schedule” is not to be confused with delivering something on time.
What 1 year we're talking about? Are you referring to estimates from 3 years ago? I don't know what would be the point of that.
Since production started in mid 17, I was delayed(as everybody else) by 4 months due to revision of estimates/"production hell". If I didn't order AWD, I'm pretty sure I'd get my RWD in July as promised in the May-July estimate.
SR production was targeting the end of 2018 for a long time now. I believe they will still target it, they just extended the range from 6 to 6-9 months to give themselves some breathing room and to avoid thousands of calls with questions on 1/1/19.
The website says standard battery in 6-9 months. I think they will offer a standard battery around that time, but will keep the premium interior mandatory for at least a while longer. That will keep margins higher, as well as make production simpler by just plopping in a different battery in the existing body style.
I think this is what will happen too. Just wish they’d offer the SR now. Aren’t there likely more (many more) SR orders so it could potentially make up the difference from selling just more expensive ones now? I dunno maybe they don’t think it’s enough fat enough with their current production rate or something.
suwaneedad
Member
This is my expectation as well. Production rate will exhaust the currently configurable LR/PUP/P/D demand in the US sometime in Q4, and Tesla will want to ship as many 3s into the US as possible by 12/31 to maximize the federal tax credit (all while keeping the production line maxed out and simple...meaning, consistent with current builds other than the battery change to SR), so we will see an opportunity for early US reservation holders to purchase a 'loaded' SR (but not a base $35k SR) for delivery during Q4. That ain't the $35k car obviously, but it will enable Tesla to claim for PR purposes that it did ship SR cars within the $7500 credit window. Then in Q1, deliveries elsewhere in North America and Canada of high margin configurations can occur in earnest, with cheaper SR fitments essentially being worked into the production queue over time, always secondary to any/all demand for global orders for higher margin vehicles. My expectation is that a $35k SR will in fact be sold by Tesla at least to those who placed reservations prior to say the end of 2017. Others will experience higher pricing due to inflation/etc, and as a credible way for Tesla to then begin encouraging a deep reservation bank for Model Y ("lock in your pricing now!").
Tesla is currently production constrained, no point making lower margin car while Tesla can sell LR
I think the opposite here in that the first thing to go is the PUP. They make more money on the battery than PUP and more people want the battery to be larger. Increase production of the lower trim level while keeping margins higher while wading through a mini production ramp up. I would have gotten base trim with a larger battery had it been available.
One of my concerns is that they are no longer production constrained for the LR PUP. That those vehicles are just piling up, waiting for someone to plop down the $3500. I do not think the AWD and P versions will keep production occupied longer than a couple months time to meet demand.
The 3q report will be telling. If they have a stockpile of vehicles, the 35k base is on its way as soon as possible. If the stockpile is too large too fast, on its way before the end of 3q.
T-Will
Member
True I was just saying buyers will be able to save a bit by buying used pretty soon (without taking EV tax credits into account).
ℬête Noire
Active Member
I guess it'll depend on how much the full Tax Credit amount creating a discount in the used market carries into the new year as the Tax Credit falls. Whether the rational ("they can't get it this cheap anymore") or the emotional ("I'm willing to let this go at my own break even") holds more sway. If the later then used market buyers will be able to indirectly take advantage of the full Tax Credit for a while yet.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
I considered this and you may be right but I see two large things counting against this:
1) Tesla has been talking up 2019 Q1 SR (and even Q4 for a few folks) for a long time. It wouldn't be the first time Tesla has had to take the PR hit of changing publicly stated intentions. But it's not something to do lightly, either.
2) Ease of implementing production is going to be better for the SR pack. The PUP is more than the roof, it's also sound system, seats, and the rear seat USB ports (that's still in PUP only?). This is a number of components spread throughout the cabin. On the other hand the SR pack is only the lower cell count and the smaller AC/DC converter. Even more important IMO is that the SR pack changes in production are in Sparks, NV and not impacting the NUMMI line which has been more chaotic and has required more changes. Sparks could have been slowly working out the SR pack process details in parallel to all the stuff happening on the Fremont end.
alseTrick
Active Member
I’m not familiar with the U.S. tax system, but i’m under the impression, that all the car buyers are not eligible to federal EV tax cut, because it requires certain income? So to those buyers it doesn’t count whether the federal tax cut for Model 3 has expired or not?
Without going into unneeded detail, you are essentially correct although a certain income isn't the key but rather a certain tax liability. (Many high income individuals know how to game the US income tax system as I am sure happens in most every democratic country.)
ℬête Noire
Active Member
No one is in-eligibale. However it is what is called a non-refundable tax credit which means that you are effectively imited in how much of the tax credit you can use by your Federal income tax liability you have during the year you purchased, you can never take you total tax bill below $0 using this tax credit.
How much income this is depends on a number of things (defendants, married, etc) but reaching $7500 usually happens well before $100,000/year. Often it has to do with people that have larger incomes in prior years or came into savings some other way or have incomes that are taxed below normal rates. It does happen, and will happen more as entry prices drop, but would likely remain uncommon.
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