Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3

[Stirfelt]

I just read on Electrek:
"Parking lots full of Tesla Model 3 vehicles have been spotted around California in the past few days and Tesla naysayers and shorts are framing the discoveries as the automaker stockpiling vehicles due to a lack of demand."

I have no idea if that is true, or how to evaluate the accuracy of the statement.
IF there are, in fact, parking lots of unsold LR, AWD and Performance Teslas being stored, Tesla should consider assembling a percentage of the SR version that many writers have indicated they are interest in.

IF the Electrek story is true, is it more profitable to assemble the more expensive vehicle and stockpile them on a storage lot,
or to start assembling the SR vehicle and deliver them to waiting and paying customers?

I do understand that Tesla has given priority to the more expensive models.
But I believe that Tesla has some responsibility to the thousands of us that gave them $1k long ago .... and we have been put-back to "the end of the line."

 

[kengchang]

It is Tesla West Coast Distribution Center

CITY OF LATHROP PLANNING COMMISSION MAY 30, 2018

City Planning Video @ 1:53:02

1500 Tesla parked on site aka Tesla West Coast Distribution Center

Another 48 acres/870K sqft being developed and leased to Tesla.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I'm curious to see the non-PUP version of the 3. Will they really produce cars with a narrow strip of metal roof over the front seats? I wonder if the glass roof will become standard by the time the $35k base model is released — my guess is mid 2019 for that.

 

[brianman]

Let me simplify that for you:

... Tesla ... <signs of good thing> ... and Tesla naysayers and shorts are framing <as bad thing> …. People with agenda or limited intellect act as distributors for the 'news' without providing appropriate context.

 

[WARP 10]

I'm wondering what the tipping point will be as far as the number of reservation cancellations. How much of that kind of negative cash flow will it take to cause a ramp up of the SR version?

 

[abasile]

IF there are, in fact, parking lots of unsold LR, AWD and Performance Teslas being stored, Tesla should consider assembling a percentage of the SR version that many writers have indicated they are interest in.

They could start by delivering the AWD Model 3 that we've ordered!

I do agree that it would be great if Tesla can deliver some base model cars before the end of the year, thus rewarding with a full $7500 federal tax credit those fans who waited in line at Tesla stores to reserve the $35k Tesla.

 

[TJtv]

3 & 4 will never happen, IMO.

#4(Free Supercharging) - this demand lever was partially activated less than 2 weeks after you said it would never happen! Can't wait to see which ones come next.

 

[brianman]

#4(Free Supercharging) - this demand lever was partially activated less than 2 weeks after you said it would never happen! Can't wait to see which ones come next.

I'm very surprised at (IMO) a bad decision here. I'm one of the beneficiaries, but I still think it's a bad plan. (I feel the same way about the on-again-off-again timeline extension and referral nonsense w/r/t supercharging.)

 

[Trevor B]

3 & 4 will never happen, IMO.

How did that work out for you, Nostradamus?

 

[brianman]

How did that work out for you, Nostradamus?

Was a decent poker face though. It took Elon to call my bluff. He's got very deep pockets.

 

[xpitxbullx]

But there IS a reason to make some SR versions. These are the dedicated people who helped fund this venture by giving Tesla $1000 up front for over 2 years to help get started making the cars.

Loyalty and startup funds should count for something.

 

[brianman]

But there IS a reason to make some SR versions.

The dark side of me wants to see the, um, "fecal flurries" that happen when/if Tesla changes the base price of Model 3 from 35k to > 42.5k. States like Washington would likely attempt to bill them (or, worse, owners!) for the taxes-on-first-$32k on all delivered Model 3s prior to that announcement.

 

[Trevor B]

But there IS a reason to make some SR versions. These are the dedicated people who helped fund this venture by giving Tesla $1000 up front for over 2 years to help get started making the cars.

Loyalty and startup funds should count for something.

Doesn't count anymore ... they need more money and anybody who can pony it up NOW is #1 priority

 

[xpitxbullx]

I think the people who waited for the SR version from day one should get something. Free upgrade to LR for their undying loyalty.

 

[derekmw]

I think the people who waited for the SR version from day one should get something. Free upgrade to LR for their undying loyalty.

Hehe I think Tesla’s loyalty has a starting price of $75k. As can be seen from the P version preference and supercharging for free.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Doesn't count anymore ... they need more money and anybody who can pony it up NOW is #1 priority

It'll count for something when it comes time to open orders for SR pack variant vehicles.

 

[GenSao]

I think the people who waited for the SR version from day one should get something. Free upgrade to LR for their undying loyalty.

Agreed. There should be a bonus and/or major consideration for the $1,000 deposit holders waiting for SR. Perhaps not as grand as a free upgrade to LR, but some thoughts:

• $1,000 deposit holders have exclusive access to the $35,000 SR base version. New orders require LR and higher trims. Once orders are taken for all interested $1,000 deposit holders, then they can open SR to the public.
• $1,000 deposit holders get the Premium upgrade package included as part of the $35,000 price or heavily discounted as an upgrade (say $1,000-$2,500 cost upgrade).
• $1,000 deposit holders get the Unlimited (or at least a year) of Premium Connectivity. Base model only has only 3 months included. All $1,000 reservation holders who ordered the LR version had this opportunity for order prior to July 1, 2018. The same opportunity should be given.

 

[TJtv]

The language in the Q2 shareholder letter:

Model 3 gross margin should grow significantly to approximately 15% in Q3 and to approximately 20% in Q4 predominantly due to continued reduction in manufacturing costs and to some extent an improving mix. Average selling price will remain high for several quarters as we expect a richer mix in the initial wave of Model 3 deliveries to Europe and APAC. We believe future Model 3 cost savings will more than offset the normalization of the Model 3 average selling price in the second half of 2019
​

Seems to imply that they don't plan on selling any short-range versions of Model 3 until ALL demand for long-range models is exhausted, including demand from overseas markets. And that they don't expect the drop in average selling price(that comes alongside selling short-range versions) to occur until 2nd half of 2019.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Seems to imply that they don't plan on selling any short-range versions of Model 3 until ALL demand for long-range models is exhausted, including demand from overseas markets.

That would suggest Tesla planning to switch at some point to all or nearly all Model 3s shipping to outside of US/Canada. That's quite unlikely given the huge delay for them in getting paid that is involved with International sales. It also doesn't make a lot of sense to have all the delivery logistics they built up in the US/Canada go slack, AKA create unused overhead.

The way it looks, which is entirely consistent with the above statement, is they'll tap US/Canada to the point of only walk-ups remaining for the currently shipping LR PUP variants and mix in SR (probably with PUP at the start), the US LR PUP walk-ups, and International LR PUPs.

And that they don't expect the drop in average selling price(that comes alongside selling short-range versions) to occur until 2nd half of 2019.

"Remain high" doesn't preclude it somewhat coming off it's peak that it'll be at this Q. Their long term average sale price target is more in the range of $40K (don't recall what it was exactly, I think maybe $42K?) so mixing with just half of vehicles at $49K minimum (if they ship 1/2 the vehicles International, that plus walk-up LR will keep them over half) is going to easily keep it above that long term target.

 

[MXWing]

In the quest for Q3/Q4 profitability, I expect Musk to send his mother, sons,and girlfriend to the battery production line.

I will bet we will see a Mars colony in 2018 before a $35,000 Model 3.

Those insisting on a $35,000 Model 3, at least this year is also insisting Tesla hurt themselves.

Disagree if you want - those who do - probably don't own a Tesla, or understand economics.