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Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3
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ℬête Noire
Active Member
I disagree (somewhat). He'll have Grimes' elf-like hands, dressed in a Goth-Santa Claus mash-up theme, manually assembling the first SR packs in mid-December so they can PR play up a few cars being rolled out to prior owner front-of-the-line-waiters, and fill a small stable of review cars, to stoke the appetite for opening up [$2500 backed] SR orders the last week of the year. Delivery 'sometime' in Q1 2019, of course.
Ho, Ho, end-of-year cash flow, baby!
EDIT: It won't strictly be the $35,000 variant, they'll still have mandatory "options" initially.
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dgpcolorado
high altitude member
It has been some years, but my recollection of that "$50k" Model S40, which is so often mentioned, is that the price was after the tax credit. Not really a fair comparison to the list prices of other models, although it is so often used to suggest broken promises and the like. People conveniently forget that Tesla did deliver the S40 at the promised price to the small number who ordered it, and since it was a software-limited S60 they got a better deal than expected.Model S was promised for $50K, now starts around $77K. Implies Model 3 will eventually start at $54K
Lasairfion
Member
I think that a short-range Model 3 could be introduced shortly before they start work on right-hand-drive vehicles. I think they'll want all the configurations completed by then ready for RHD conversion. Also, I'm inclined to think that a mass market focus in the UK (or AUS) would require a car at that sort of price point rather than higher. Incomes are simply not on parity with the US and range is less of a worry in the UK as commutes are much smaller here.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Model S was promised for $50K, now starts around $77K. Implies Model 3 will eventually start at $54K
Correct. And only after CA rebate (or whatever your state rebate was), as well. List price was $59,900: Tesla Kills The Entry-Level, 40 kWh Model S Citing Poor Demand
It was to hit the "starting under $60K" sales pitch point Musk had targeted. The range was also so poor it didn't fit with the SuperCharger network, which was planned with larger gaps during initial phases and which it still has across most of the country, and very few people were interested in it because of this. The real starting base stripper for the Model S the was IIRC $65K (or was it $65.9K?) for the 60 (which was later raised to $68K (-$1K reduction if you had a pulse, AKA a referral code) before that was also discontinued.....because frankly Tesla was padding to get it's nominal range to 209mi.
If the 220mi Model 3 behaves and performs anything like the 310mi Model 3 there just won't be the same sort of pressure to boost hardware to become "practically usable" like the Model S did for years.
Coupled with the addition push to D across the Model S line, which was in part needed for efficiency (again, unlike in the Model 3), and that accounts for nearly all the price increase to the base. All that is left is mostly covered by 5 years of inflation background. It looks pretty good for the $35K price to stick for another 3 years or more (assuming trade wars or something doesn't completely bork us w/inflation).
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I suppose Tesla has the statistics ..... but wouldn't it be interesting to know the percentages of potential buyers that want:
a) SR battery, PUP, non black ........ That's me.
b) LR battery, PUP, non black
c) LR battery, D, PUP, non black
d) LR battery, D & P, PUP, non black.
( I know there are other options, 19 inch wheel, auto pilot and such)
With stories of storage lots of parked Tesla's .... I'm wondering if they are "b's" and the demand has softened????? IF .... that were true, perhaps they will lower the price? Wouldn't that be nice. I suppose the "c" and the "d" group are the hot sellers right now.
I'm guessing, but I'm suggesting that a lot of buyers in the "b" group, are now deferring since the D & P became available. I doubt many in the "a" group have any expectation of a D & P.
a) SR battery, PUP, non black ........ That's me.
b) LR battery, PUP, non black
c) LR battery, D, PUP, non black
d) LR battery, D & P, PUP, non black.
( I know there are other options, 19 inch wheel, auto pilot and such)
With stories of storage lots of parked Tesla's .... I'm wondering if they are "b's" and the demand has softened????? IF .... that were true, perhaps they will lower the price? Wouldn't that be nice. I suppose the "c" and the "d" group are the hot sellers right now.
I'm guessing, but I'm suggesting that a lot of buyers in the "b" group, are now deferring since the D & P became available. I doubt many in the "a" group have any expectation of a D & P.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
The picture's I've seen suggest it's only days worth of production at current rates. With logistics still spooling up, and incidentally some states requiring Tesla keep those cars in CA while the customer works out paperwork and pays in full, because Tesla's allowed to sell within the destination state (Lathrop is known as this storage for location for Texas bound cars), it is hardly surprising to see that sort of level of cars pooling along the way in the distribution chain.
Dan43
Member
Might be a daft thought but could the SR battery be a software locked LR battery (like the 60 was a 75 in the S) thus a price to upgrade later to LR?
Might make the roll out quicker if these batteries are software locked, or is that a bit dopey on my part? Is cost a factor here?
Thinking out loud while in the pub If I have any more I'll order a M3.....LR Performance with the works...
Might make the roll out quicker if these batteries are software locked, or is that a bit dopey on my part? Is cost a factor here?
Thinking out loud while in the pub
If I have any more I'll order a M3.....LR Performance with the works...
ℬête Noire
Active Member
My prior thoughts on it: Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3
Basically, yeah, it'd be near $3K of extra material in the car that isn't getting paid for and it'd be at least $9K to unlock (probably at least an extra $1K) so it'd be a difficult thing to sell. Plus 220mi, assuming it's not goosed number like the Model S range numbers arguably are, is going to work for a lot of people so even less incentive to convert with a [paid] unlock later.
Thinking out loud while in the pub
Well that's dangerous. LOL
Highly unlikely. First, cost would eat into the margins. Second, the increased weight of the extra batteries would reduce the efficiency (they would potentially have to unlock more battery to have same range as the smaller pack). Finally, they stopped with the locked 60s. They even lowered the price to convince people to purchase.Might be a daft thought but could the SR battery be a software locked LR battery (like the 60 was a 75 in the S) thus a price to upgrade later to LR?
Might make the roll out quicker if these batteries are software locked, or is that a bit dopey on my part? Is cost a factor here?
Thinking out loud while in the pub
Dan43
Member
ℬête Noire
Active Member
When's your Performance Model 3 set to deliver?
Dan43
Member
When's your Performance Model 3 set to deliver?
I'm so close almost daily to jump on a Model 3 now, but I'm going to hang fire for the base SR version I think.Is it still going to be $35k even when the tax credit gets reduced?
You also have to remember that it has a shorter warranty and the cost of fixing it out of warranty is much higher than competing cars, and of course Tesla don't do any discounts, so it's not really comparable to other $35k long range EVs.
You also have to remember that it has a shorter warranty and the cost of fixing it out of warranty is much higher than competing cars, and of course Tesla don't do any discounts, so it's not really comparable to other $35k long range EVs.
Dan43
Member
C$45K plus 12% sales tax plus local tax plus other Canadian charges (delivery, etc etc) the rebate at C$5K which doesn't really cover the 12% its not cheap cheap really, plus EAP is probably a minimum in most respects. So the car is looking like about C$50K plus probably
With the volume they plan that 50K plus plan would not work. The world market is not big enough.
Catman20009
Member
With current delivery times up to 4 months I think the full deduction goes away soon for those of us still waiting. Perhaps they'll turn cars around faster in a few months with increased production. I haven't ordered any of the current versions so something significant would have to happen for me to order them later knowing it might not be delivered by 12/31. So then the next decision point will be what version is available to deliver by 3/31/19. And so on. I'm planning retirement so I'd rather keep more $$$ in investments rather than in my garage. But it's still a tough decision. I'd love to have an M3. As more friends get their deliveries I just have to live vicariously from the back seat. LOL.
So is there any new news regarding SR timing? It still says 6-9 months on the order page and it is about 6 weeks later from when that changed in late June. Safe to say it is going to keep getting bumped?
Will they start LR deliveries overseas before or at the same time as making the SR available in the US?
Will they start LR deliveries overseas before or at the same time as making the SR available in the US?
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