No, 3/31/19 is not an important date at all. Tax credit remains at $7500 through 12/31/18, then is $3750 from 1/1/19 - 6/30/19, and then is $1875 from 7/1/19 - 12/31/19, after that it's all the way phased out.
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Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3
- Thread starter sooner
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No, 3/31/19 is not an important date at all. Tax credit remains at $7500 through 12/31/18, then is $3750 from 1/1/19 - 6/30/19, and then is $1875 from 7/1/19 - 12/31/19, after that it's all the way phased out.
Catman20009
Member
New demand lever activated today with the mid-range battery. As I predicted in Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3 , some of the demand levers would be completely unforseeable from the outside.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Many people knew that the LR battery was a $9k upgrade over the SR battery. With the way they display the pricing with the tax/gas savings(30.7k vs. 39.7k) and also because they only have LR AWD avaiable to order now it's exactly a $9k delta between the MR and the only available LR? Is that $9k number a coincidence? I think not!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Given the 5.6 0-60, this MR essentially is an SR that you're required to pay an extra 5k for to get 40 miles more range, and you're required to take the 5k PUP too... but you can lock in the $7500 tax credit.
Next model will be the SR with PUP still required, late into the $3750 tax credit period.
The "real" 35k no options folks MIGHT manage to see the $1875 credit if they want to keep holding out but Teslas gonna take every step along the way to encourage them not to.
Next model will be the SR with PUP still required, late into the $3750 tax credit period.
The "real" 35k no options folks MIGHT manage to see the $1875 credit if they want to keep holding out but Teslas gonna take every step along the way to encourage them not to.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Like I said on the first page of this thread, Tesla isn't going to waste a single $7,500 tax credit on a $35k car.
3 months later, it now seems highly likely they won't waste a single $3,750 credit on a $35k car either. You might get the short-range battery with $3750 back, but it will at minimum come bundled with the $5k PUP.
3 months later, it now seems highly likely they won't waste a single $3,750 credit on a $35k car either. You might get the short-range battery with $3750 back, but it will at minimum come bundled with the $5k PUP.
Based on this tweet Elon Musk on Twitter it seems much more likely they're still expecting to begin SR production in January as has been discussed, and deliveries starting in February timeframe. Once the assembly line is built and working, there's no advantage to withholding vehicles people want to buy. They need to start selling whatever they can to recoup the costs they've sunk into manufacturing.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I think you'll see a short range battery somewhere around that time, agreed (though I'm guessing not until mid-late Feb). But it will continue to be packaged with the "premium" (i.e. "only") interior for a mandatory $5k price bump (which is ~80% profit for Tesla).
The entire world consists of more than the USA.
Why sell stripped down Model 3s with no software when you can ship loaded P’s internationally?
Everything is supply/demand.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
While I agree in principle, the logistics of global delivery are not trivial, and as we’ve seen Tesla can barely manage delivering cars made in California *within California* at current volumes.
Agreed.. Why bother with SR when neither Europe nor Asia markets have been filled LR premium yet?
It’s easy to tell who has experience running businesses and who doesn’t.
I’m about to extend that to its easy to tell who has common sense or not.35K Model 3s are 35K Model 3s. No one is gonna add 10K of software to that.
64k cars become 74K cars and people will add surfboards, flamethrowers as added accessories.
Tesla will make an SR Model 3 as they promised but they will be dragged into it, kicking and screaming. Delay as much as possible and walk down the price in steps to reduce the demand.
It’s easy to tell who has experience running businesses and who doesn’t.
35K Model 3s are 35K Model 3s. No one is gonna add 10K of software to that.
64k cars become 74K cars and people will add surfboards, flamethrowers as added accessories.
Tesla will make an SR Model 3 as they promised but they will be dragged into it, kicking and screaming. Delay as much as possible and walk down the price in steps to reduce the demand.
And it is easy to see a person who does not understand the cost of configuration management
.Configuration management cost quite a bit of money, and complicates the production. Having stripped $35K version for the Tesla will cost a lot of money to setup.
No - I do not see Tesla making $35K version when Tesla can be selling for at least a year a fully loaded and quite profitable LR MR (P or AWD) with premium updates M3. Besides dropping a different size battery, and or adding front motor, the current M3 production configuration is quite simple (cheap).
And it is easy to see a person who does not understand the cost of configuration management
Configuration management cost quite a bit of money, and complicates the production. Having stripped $35K version for the Tesla will cost a lot of money to setup.
No - I do not see Tesla making $35K version when Tesla can be selling for at least a year a fully loaded and quite profitable LR MR (P or AWD) with premium updates M3. Besides dropping a different size battery, and or adding front motor, the current M3 production configuration is quite simple (cheap).
Running business units entails understanding of configuration management. We should be in agreement here?
$35,000 SR is
-new pack
-new body
-new interior
And give up software sales?
Who wants to produce that? They won’t do it with open arms.
It’s really neglible. Ocean freight is cheap. Vehicles have a good dimensional weight ratio. Cost and logistics is less an issue than the time it takes for transit and customs.
You have to ship early in the quarter to recognize revenue for that quarter.
As much as a pain it is - it’s better to ship a maxed out Model 3 overseas versus catering to no option 35,000 buyers in the states.
Trade wars don’t last forever and why is Tesla building an extra factory for demand that is about to die according to your expert analysis?
You should be shorting Tesla if you want to put your money where your mouth is.
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And it is easy to see a person who does not understand the cost of configuration management
Configuration management cost quite a bit of money, and complicates the production. Having stripped $35K version for the Tesla will cost a lot of money to setup.
No - I do not see Tesla making $35K version when Tesla can be selling for at least a year a fully loaded and quite profitable LR MR (P or AWD) with premium updates M3. Besides dropping a different size battery, and or adding front motor, the current M3 production configuration is quite simple (cheap).
The problem is that I doubt they have a years sales at those high price levels. They have to drop the price to sell as many units as they hope to produce. The demand in Europe will be filled quickly and China with the high import duties and the number of EV's coming to market now and very soon will be small.
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